march 2 nuggets celtics preview

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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The highlight of the NBA slate on Sunday, March 1, comes early.

At 1 p.m. ET, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will meet reigning NBA champion Boston at TD Garden on ABC.

The Nuggets (39-21) are slight underdogs in Boston despite going 11-2 in their last 13 games. Each of Denver's last nine wins in that stretch came by at least nine points.

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The Celtics (42-18) have played well enough this year to find themselves 2.5 games ahead of the Knicks for the 2-seed in the East, but they are coming off back-to-back losses to Detroit and Cleveland.

Nuggets vs. Celtics Betting Odds

Nuggets vs. Celtics Betting Analysis

It's not exactly breaking news that these are two of the best teams in the NBA.

The Nuggets raised the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2023 with a dominant run through the West and a beatdown of the Heat in that year's NBA Finals. Last year, Boston went on an even more impressive wire-to-wire romp, following up a 64-18 regular season with a cruise through the playoffs and Finals.

This year, Denver started slow -- relative to expectations, at least. A January 29 loss to the Knicks dropped coach Michael Malone's team to just 28-19.

But thanks to excellent recent play by Jamal Murray and another incredible season by Jokic, the Nuggets are on the short list of viable threats to the Thunder in the West.

As of March 2, only the Thunder, Celtics and Cavs have shorter odds to win the NBA Finals.

Boston is not owning the regular season the way it did a year ago, but the Celtics remain a force.

Can Boston Keep Jokic in Check?

There are countless compelling angles in this game. But the one that will likely decide the winner is the confounding problem every Denver opponent struggles with: How do you contend with Jokic?

Denver lost earlier this week to the one player (Giannis Antetokounmpo) who can physically hold his own against the Joker. That loss, however, was hardly on the shoulders of the three-time NBA MVP -- he finished with 32 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists.

In two Denver vs. Boston regular-season battles last year, Jokic had 34 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in a 102-100 win in January, and added 32, 12 and 11 in a 115-109 Nuggets victory in March.

One of the biggest culprits in the Nuggets' loss to Milwaukee was poor 3-point shooting. They made just nine of their 34 3-point attempts amid off nights by both Michael Porter Jr. (5-of-22 shooting, 2-of-11 from 3) and Aaron Gordon (4-of-13 FG shooting, 1-of-6 from 3).

The other weakness that was exposed in not only the loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday, but also in last Saturday night's primetime disappointment against the Lakers, was poor defense. Denver allowed both the Lakers and the Bucks to shoot 46 percent or better from the floor, including at least 39 percent on a high volume of 3-point attempts.

Nuggets vs. Celtics Injury News

Unfortunately, there's no shortage of injury concerns on either bench. Boston's Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are both doubtful for this game, and Jaylen Brown is questionable with a knee injury. The latter, however, feels like a safe bet to play -- and play well -- after pouring in 37 points in 34 minutes against the Cavs on Friday night.

The Nuggets list Gordon and reserve Zeke Nnaji as questionable. Gordon sat out Denver's last game, a win over the Pistons on Friday, with a left ankle injury. He would be sorely missed if he's sidelined against Jayson Tatum and the C's.

Nuggets vs. Celtics Prediction, Best Bets

Reviewing the two Denver-Boston games a year ago makes it tempting to back the Nuggets on the moneyline, especially with the Celtics coming off a hard-fought loss to Cleveland just two nights ago.

But I don't blame anyone for thinking twice about betting on Boston to lose three straight for the first time since March 2023, either.

Nuggets vs. Celtics Best Bets (Spread, Total)

I probably wouldn't be sold on either side of this spread even if there were no injury uncertainty on other side. Given the lack of clarity on Gordon and Brown, I recommend staying away from the spread until an announcement is made on whether they're going to be in action.

I do have a strong lean on the total, though. I'm going with the over for a couple reasons, including A) how many quality looks Denver allowed both L.A. and Milwaukee recently, B) the Celtics' outstanding 3-point shooting and C) Boston's lack of an answer for Jokic.

Nugget vs. Celtics Best Prop Bets

Given what Jokic did to this team last year, and the insane level he's playing at this season, his points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop is tough to resist.

Remember: he had 55 PRA in one game against Boston last year and 54 in the other. And that was against a Celtics team that lost 18 games in the entire regular season. This year's team isn't exactly struggling, but it has already equaled that number of losses.

So why not throw a half-unit on Jokic to reach 50 PRA and a quarter-unit on him to hit 55 PRA?

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