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By Jon Vankin
Contributing Sports Writer
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When the Boston Red Sox reportedly agreed to sign free agent Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract on Wednesday, a new feeling of optimism about the 2025 season swept through the Red Sox organization, and the Red Sox Nation fandom.
The signing "gives a signal that the Red Sox are back," wrote Duke Castiglione — son of recently retired longtime Red Sox radio voice Joe Castiglione — on WCVB.com. "Players were happy and said this signals to them that ownership believes in them, that they can go deep this season and make a World Series run."
Over in Yankees Nation, however, the vibe was a little different. According to one leading blogger for the New York Yankees site Bleeding Yankee Blue, signing the former Houston Astros third baseman is nothing more than proof that the Red Sox "have officially lost their minds. Again."
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Robert Casey, managing editor and head writer for BYB, called the Boston move "dumb and desperate," and wrote that Bregman did not sign until the first day of spring training "not because he was some hidden gem that teams just forgot about. No, no, no -- he was sitting on the shelf collecting dust because Scott Boras, baseball's most insufferable agent, spent the entire offseason making everything about himself and demanding an absurd contract that no one in their right mind was willing to pay."
He characterized the Red Sox' thinking as, "let's be the suckers who cave in!"
Not everyone outside of Red Sox fandom agrees with Casey, however. Heading into the offseason Bregman was the second-ranked hitter on the free agent market behind Juan Soto, according to MLB.com baseball analyst Mark Feinsand.
More MLB: Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet's 'Dream' Gave Him Hope Alex Bregman Would Join Him
The analytical site Fangraphs also rated Bregman highly, placing him at No. 3 among all free agents entering the offseason last November.
In a statistical analysis of each team's odds of making the playoffs with and without Bregman, Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs (and inventor of the ZiPS player projection system) found that the Red Sox improved their chances of qualifying for postseason play by 10.8 percentage points, from 45.3 percent to 56.1 percent.
That was a greater "Bregman effect" than all but five other MLB teams. In other words, signing Bregman gives the Red Sox significant bang for their buck.
But Casey makes another point: that Bregman is supposedly "still tainted from that little cheating scandal that helped define his career."
More MLB: Alex Bregman Reportedly Has Expected Date To Arrive At Red Sox Spring Training
Bregman was implicated in the Astros sign-stealing scheme of 2017 that caused MLB commissioner Rob Manfred to briefly consider stripping Houston of its World Series title from that season. Manfred decided against it, "concerned about the extraordinary precedent of vacating the title," according to the New York Times.
However, it may be significant that the scandal was first revealed toward the end of the 2019 season, and a look at Bregman's offensive performance shows that his production dropped off sharply after that season.
After compiling OPS figures of .827, .926, and 1.015 in 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, Bregman has failed to top .820 in the five seasons since, twice posting OPS numbers below the .800 mark, and below .805 twice as well.
More MLB: Red Sox Predicted to Sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Despite Alex Bregman Deal
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