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By Jon Paul Hoornstra
Contributing Sports Writer
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What's ailing Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes?
The answer depends on who you ask.
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Skenes faces the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, Aug. 11, coming off a start against the Milwaukee Brewers which — on paper, at least — looked pretty good. The right-hander got swings and misses on 35 percent of his pitches, an enviable number in a league where average is 23 percent. His velocity, a source of scrutiny all season, was a robust 97.1 mph as an average of his four-seam fastballs.
The Pirates lost the game, 4-2. Skenes allowed four walks in five innings; two of those runners came around to score.
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Perhaps there was a bit of recency bias at work when Pirates manager Don Kelly was asked about Skenes' struggles in 2026.
"I think you see a guy who set the bar so high from his first two years in the Major Leagues," Kelly said, via Jason Mackey of MLB.com. "He's going out there trying to achieve that same bar. The league is going to adjust."
Skenes is 9-10 with a 3.96 ERA in 2026, after going 21-13 with a 1.96 ERA across his first two seasons in the league.
Last year, Skenes won an ERA title and the National League Cy Young Award. The year before, he was third in Cy Young voting and won the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
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"Paul's gonna have to fight to make the adjustment back to the league and find a way to adjust himself," Kelly continued. "Yes, the velo's down. I think command has been a bigger thing, at least for me. That could come from multiple things. From trying too hard or trying to be too perfect. Maybe trying to get the velo back. He knows it's down a mile per hour. You can't just go and get it."
Skenes' walk rate is up to 6.8 percent this year from 5.7 percent in 2025. That's gotten less attention than his drop in fastball velocity, from 98.1 mph on average last year to 96.8. The difference in each category is small but potentially important.
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Kelly's concern for Skenes' command is not without merit. A 96.8-mph fastball still compares favorably to most major league starters. Skenes' expected ERA of 3.01, per Statcast, reflects the struggles of the Pirates' defense behind him.
A poor defense doesn't account for everything ailing Skenes — such as a 39.1 percent hard-hit rate, per Statcast, that ranks in the 45th percentile of all major-league pitchers.
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Skenes is already tinkering. His arm angle has ticked up a bit this season; so has his four-seam fastball usage. Starts like the one against the Brewers, in which only his command is off, suggests Skenes is close but not quite back to his 2024-25 form.
"How does Paul make the adjustment back? Nobody has set the bar that high in their first two years," Kelly said. "But I'm sure there have been guys who have struggled as the league adjusts to them that have been really great pitchers. The league adjusts, they have to find a way to bounce back. They go on to have really good careers."
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