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By Jon Paul Hoornstra
Contributing Sports Writer
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It's bad enough that the Philadelphia Phillies have lost three consecutive games, and will enter the final weekend of the regular season needing a win just to keep their postseason hopes alive. Their odds of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs, peaked at 99.7 percent on Sept. 4.
In the best-case scenario, the Phillies will be back into the postseason with a feeble lineup, question marks about their bullpen, and potentially without one of their best starting pitchers. In the worst-case scenario, the Arizona Diamondbacks will overtake them for the third and final National League wild-card berth.
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What seemed unthinkable only three weeks ago suddenly has life. The D-backs (86-74) won their sixth consecutive game against the San Diego Padres on Friday, and now trail the Phillies (87-73) by one game. The Padres, who already locked in their wild-card berth, have no incentive to use their best pitchers in the final weekend of the season against the D-backs.
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The same is true for the Tampa Bay Rays, but the team with the best record in the American League (97-63) hardly looks like a pushover to lose one or both of their final two games against the Phillies. On Friday, Freddy Peralta led a combined shutout in which the Phillies collected only four hits.
That continued a disturbing trend: over their previous three series against the Washington Nationals, New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers, the Phillies hit .201 with a .617 OPS. They averaged 3.3 runs per game over the nine-game span.
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The Phillies' lineup was weakened further when Luis Arraez, their cleanup hitter who leads the majors with a .310 batting average, sprained his left ankle on Thursday. He's doubtful to play again in the regular season.
Philadelphia has several stars who can do more with a bat than Arraez, enough that he might not be missed in their remaining regular-season games. Pitcher Jesus Luzardo, however, had a 1.08 ERA over a seven-start stretch before he was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation after shutting out the Braves on Sept. 7.
Luzardo threw a 30-pitch bullpen Thursday, but questions remain if he'll have built up his arm enough to be a starter or a reliever the next time he takes the mound.
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Moving to the bullpen wouldn't be the worst outcome for Luzardo. Phillies relievers have combined for a major-league-worst 5.26 ERA from the fifth through seventh innings. Orion Kerkering was optioned to the minors after he allowed 10 runs in four September relief appearances.
But to get Luzardo back in any capacity, the Phillies have to clinch a postseason berth first. Tying the Diamondbacks in the standings isn't enough, since Arizona holds the tiebreaker between the two teams.
The Nor'Easter storm bearing down on the East Coast aren't the only clouds clouds brewing in Philadelphia. The Phillies will turn to a bullpen game on Saturday to try and beat the Rays and maintain control of their own postseason destiny.
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