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By Andrew Gould
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Tarik Skubal headlines MLB's free-agent class in an uncertain offseason with a potential lockout looming. One insider named an unsurprising frontrunner to land the star starting pitcher.
Jon Heyman noted on MLB Network's Hot Stove that the prediction markets give the New York Mets a 37% chance of signing Skubal, making them favorites to sign the two-time Cy Young Award winner. The Los Angeles Dodgers follow with a 22% chance to retain the southpaw.
Heyman thinks those odds are solid indicators of the Skubal sweepstakes. The New York Post writer feels the Mets may be more motivated than the Dodgers to pay Skubal after missing the postseason.
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"I think they're pretty smart. I think they're right on it," Heyman said. "I do favor the Mets at this point. We're not exactly sure where the Dodgers are going to go. It worked out great for both parties. He loved it there, they loved him, but they're not in the desperation kind of mode that the Mets are in to get better."
However, that doesn't mean it's necessarily a two-team race for Skubal. Heyman suggested that the San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, or Philadelphia Phillies could pursue Skubal, who turns 30 later this month. He also highlighted a potential salary cap and floor change that could reshape the landscape and put smaller-market clubs in the running.
"There could be any number of teams," Heyman said. "But at this moment, we're early in the game, but we got to say the Mets are probably the favorite."
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Meanwhile, Heyman doesn't see Skubal taking a short-term deal with a larger average salary like the four-year, $240 million contract the Dodgers gave Kyle Tucker last offseason. Skubal has too much leverage as the clear best player on the open market.
"Why would he do a four-year deal? There's no reason to do that," Heyman said. "They're going to look at eight years and above. That's the goal. We'll see if he gets there. I predicted seven, but I could certainly see more."
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