Our NFL Week 18 early picks against the spread start with Saturday’s NFC South clash between the Panthers and Buccaneers. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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The Week 18 schedule is unlike any other week of the regular season: no Thursday nighter, a Saturday doubleheader (Panthers-Bucs at 4:30 p.m. ET and Seahawks-49ers at 8 p.m.), and no MNF matchup.

Each of these games is available to bet on at not only traditional sportsbooks, but also prediction markets including Kalshi. To start an account at Kalshi today and score a $10 welcome bonus after placing $100 in trades, sign up by clicking here or via the links below using promo code WEEK.

Fortunately, we have three high-stakes matchups to look forward to, as Panthers-Bucs, Seahawks-49ers and Ravens-Steelers will decide the NFC South, NFC West and AFC North, respectively.

Both Seattle and San Francisco will advance to the playoffs; the question is which team will clinch the division title and the all-important 1-seed in the NFC. The Panthers could still make the playoffs with a loss on Saturday (is anything in the NFC South ever straightforward??), but Baltimore-Pittsburgh is truly a win-or-go-home situation.

For the rest of the league, the only things that remain unsettled are draft position and playoff seeding.

Now, for the final time this regular season, let's get into our early picks against the spread for all 16 NFL games in Week 18.

Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 136-117-4

All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET

Panthers at Buccaneers (-2.5) -- Sat., 4:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Pick: Panthers +2.5

Carolina (8-8) continued its pattern of alternating wins and losses with Sunday's loss to the Seahawks. Will the Panthers continue that trend through the finish line of the regular season?

Based on the Bucs' (7-9) horrible play down the stretch -- Tampa is 1-7 over the last eight weeks, with back-to-back-to-back-to-back losses to the Saints, Falcons, Panthers and the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins -- I can't resist Carolina at +2.5, even after a discouraging* offensive showing at home vs. Seattle in Week 17.

The silver lining in Carolina's 27-10 loss to the Seahawks was the play of its defense, which forced two turnovers and held Seattle to 4.4 yards per play.

*"Discouraging" is probably a generous way to describe the Panthers' 10-first down, 139-yard day.

Seahawks (-1.5) at 49ers -- Sat., 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Pick: Seahawks -1.5

The clash between the Seahawks' (13-3) incredible defense and the 49ers' (12-4) red-hot offense will be as compelling as anything we see this weekend. San Francisco scored at least 37 points each of the last three weeks, and it has topped 40 points four times in its last six games.

This will be easily the toughest test the 49ers have faced since they lost to the Rams, 42-26, back in Week 10.

I'll probably flip-flop on this one several times this week, but right now, I like Seattle to get just enough stops to win this one on the road in primetime, especially if San Francisco is missing star left tackle Trent Williams and/or George Kittle.

Saints at Falcons (-3.5) -- Sun., 1. p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Saints +3.5

The line for this potentially crucial (I can explain) matchup between the 6-10 Saints and 7-9 Falcons understandably moved toward Atlanta after Bijan Robinson led the Falcons to an upset over the Rams on Monday Night Football.

By "potentially crucial," I'm referring to the fact that this game could decide the winner of the NFC South, even though both teams are out of the race.

If the Panthers win on Saturday against the Bucs, they win the division, regardless of what happens in this one. But if the Bucs win that game, a Saints win would clinch the division title for Tampa Bay, while a Falcons victory would result in Carolina winning the division at 8-9.

As far as my take on the two teams in action, I don't think the Saints should be catching 3.5 after winning four in a row, with rookie QB Tyler Shough looking better every week. I like the Falcons, who are on a three-game winning streak, to pull out a close one. At this point, though, taking the underdog and the points seems like the way to go in any late-season NFC South clash.

Browns at Bengals (-7.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Bengals -7.5

For all their defensive flaws, the Bengals (6-10) reminded us, with 82 points combined in comfortable wins over the Dolphins and Cardinals, that this offense is as good as any in the league. I'm not convinced Joe Burrow and Cincinnati will flirt with another 40-point day, but I think they'll score more than enough to win this game with room to spare.

The Cleveland D shouldn't be slept on, but I don't think the Browns (4-12) will score enough to keep this a one-score game for 60 minutes.

Packers at Vikings (-6.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Packers +6.5

With Green Bay (9-6-1) locked into the 7-seed, regardless of what happens this weekend, there's a strong chance we'll see a number of backups in action for the Packers.

Still, I don't think Minnesota (8-8) will win this game going away, especially if QB Max Brosmer is under center (assuming, of course, that the Vikings are unable to force another half-dozen turnovers).

Cowboys (-3.5) at Giants -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Cowboys -3.5

This line opened at Cowboys -5.5. It's sinced moved toward Jaxson Dart and the Giants (3-13), who blew out the Raiders last Sunday in one of the best games of Jaxson Dart's young career.

I'm going to lay the points with Dallas (7-8-1), though, as the Giants have good reason to lose this one. With a loss and a Raiders win over the Chiefs, they would lock up the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

This is also a tough matchup for the New York defense, which has struggled to get stops all year.

Titans at Jaguars (-12.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Titans +12.5

I don't see the Jaguars (12-4) struggling, per se, with the Titans (3-13), especially given that a loss by the Jags could cost them the AFC South title. But Cam Ward and Tennessee have quietly been a dangerous offensive team in recent weeks. I like Tennessee to score enough to cover as massive underdogs, even if it requires a flurry of points in garbage time.

Colts at Texans (-10.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Texans -10.5

There's probably not a unit I trust more than the Houston defense right now. Will Anderson Jr. and Co. should dominate the Riley Leonard-led Colts (8-8) in the sixth-round rookie's first career start.

The Texans (11-5) have hardly played championship-caliber offensive football the last couple of weeks. That makes laying 10.5 points dicey, but I have a feeling that as long as CJ Stroud and Co. avoid turnovers, Houston will roll.

Jets at Bills (-7) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Bills -7

The Bills (11-5) opened as 11.5-favorites, but following news that Josh Allen will be sidelined this weekend, the line has swung toward the Jets (3-13).

I don't love the idea of laying 7 points with backup QB Mitch Trubisky and Buffalo, but New York offered absolutely no resistance in last week's loss to the Pats, falling behind 35-3 en route to a 42-10 rout at home.

I can't come up with a reason to back the Jets, who have lost four straight games by at least 23 points.

Lions at Bears (-3) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Lions +3

Detroit (8-8) was eliminated from playoff contention with last week's Christmas Day meltdown in Minnesota, but the Lions should be much sharper offensively as they look to finish a disappointing season on a high note.

The Bears (11-5) were lights-out offensively in a close loss to San Francisco last Sunday night, but the Chicago D had one of its worst games of the year. Given what we saw Brock Purdy do against the Bears, I'm not taking Chicago to cover this weekend against a potent offense like Detroit's.

Chargers at Broncos (-12.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chargers +12.5

I don't feel great, by any means, about a backup quarterback behind L.A.'s decimated offensive line. Denver (13-3), however -- which just squeaked past Chris Oladokun and the Chiefs, 20-13 -- has shown little reason to believe it will cover a spread this substantial. While the Broncos are 7-1 over their last eight, only two of their 13 wins this year came by double-digits.

The Chargers (11-5) are resting a number of key players, including Justin Herbert, but I expect them to play well enough defensively to keep this game respectable. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a solid day by former top-10 pick Trey Lance, who flashed during the preseason and will be auditioning for an offseason chance at a starting gig.

Chiefs (-5.5) at Raiders -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chiefs -5.5

If the question is, "Who do you like: Chris Oladokun or Kenny Pickett (or Aidan O'Connell)?" the right answer is probably "no thank you."

That being said, the Raiders (2-14) looked completely uninterested during last week's loss to the Giants. Although Vegas has already secured the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, another flat showing by this team would come as no surprise.

The Chiefs (6-10), on the other hand, have been (mostly) competitive since being eliminated from the playoff picture, and I think they'll do just enough to cover on Sunday.

Cardinals at Rams (-7.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Rams -7.5

Let's start with a key caveat: If San Francisco beats Seattle on Saturday night, the Rams (11-5) will be locked into the 6-seed. If that's the case, Matthew Stafford and several other starters will likely rest for L.A., and the Cardinals (3-13) will be hard to resist at +7.5.

But for now, assuming Seattle wins as the road favorite on Saturday night, I like the Rams to get right, and cover, in a meaningful game* against an Arizona D that has given up at least 37 points in three of its last four games.

*If Seattle beats San Francisco, the Rams would clinch the 5-seed with a victory over Arizona.

Dolphins at Patriots (-10.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Patriots -10.5

The Pats (13-3) still have something to play for: a New England win, plus a loss by the Broncos (not likely, but possible) would give Mike Vrabel's team the 1-seed in the AFC. To me, that makes New England -10.5 the play. It's also worth noting that a big game by MVP favorite Drake Maye could put him over the top in his battle with Matthew Stafford.

It wouldn't be fair to call the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins (7-9) a pushover after last week's upset of the Buccaneers, but I can't quite envision Miami hanging with the Pats for 60 minutes.

Commanders at Eagles (-3.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Commanders +3.5

The odds for this game shifted dramatically on Wednesday morning after a report by the Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeff McLane revealed the Eagles (11-5) will rest a number of key starters, including Jalen Hurts.

If Philly is indeed punting on this game, Washington (4-12) at +3.5 is an easy decision (and don't be surprised if the Commanders are even shorter underdogs by kickoff).

Ravens (-3.5) at Steelers -- Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Pick: Ravens -3.5

Fortunately, there are some legitimate postseason implications in at least one of Sunday's 14 games.

The Ravens (8-8) and Steelers (9-7) meet in a doozy on SNF, with the winner taking the AFC North and moving on to the postseason. The loser, whether it's Baltimore or Pittsburgh, is in for as much offseason scrutiny (upheaval??) as any team in the league.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson was expected to practice on Wednesday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That is a great sign we'll see him in action on Sunday. When these teams met in Week 14, Baltimore lost 27-22 at home despite outgaining Pittsburgh 420-318 (including a 217-34 edge on the ground) and holding the Steelers to just 13 first downs.

Fresh off its best rushing game of the season last Saturday night in Green Bay (without Jackson), I like the Ravens to feed Derrick Henry*, do a much better job finishing drives (Baltimore scored just twice on six trips to the red zone in the previous meeting) and win this game by a touchdown.

*In three career games vs. Pittsburgh since joining the Ravens in 2024, Henry has picked up 5.18 yards per carry on 62 rushing attempts.

One last thing: If the Steelers -- who shut down the run against the Dolphins, Lions and Browns the last three weeks -- can keep Henry in check, all bets (on the Ravens) are off ... but I'll believe that when I see it.

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