The latest edition of Newsweek Sports Betting đź“© breaks down the CFP quarterfinals, starting with Miami vs. reigning champ Ohio State tonight. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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Happy New Year!

Welcome to a special (profitable🤞) NYE breakdown of what to know entering two of the best days of the year for college football diehards.

A solid pre-CFP undercard (Iowa-Vandy, Arizona State-Duke, Michigan-Texas and Nebraska-Utah) is underway, and the College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin with Miami-Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl this evening.

The Buckeyes enter the CFP as the clear favorite to defend the national title. OSU is +190 at both FD and DK, followed by Indiana (+310 at FD, +320 at DK) and Georgia (+475 at DK, +500 at FD).

Oddsmakers see Oregon, Texas Tech, Alabama, Miami and Ole Miss — in that order — as the biggest threats to the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Dawgs.

Let’s start with a (very) quick look at who plays when, as well as the spread in all four CFP quarterfinal games — all airing on ESPN — over the next two days.

(all times ET; odds via DK as of Wednesday afternoon):

*While DK lists OSU at -9.5 as of Wednesday afternoon, it’s worth noting that FD currently lists OSU as an 8.5-point favorite.

Each of the CFP quarterfinal games is available to bet on at not only traditional sportsbooks, but also prediction markets including Kalshi. To start an account at Kalshi today and score a $10 welcome bonus after placing $100 in trades, sign up by clicking here or via the links below using promo code WEEK.

Cotton Bowl — No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-8.5)

The CFP quarterfinals start with a matchup that does not promise to offer much in the way of offensive fireworks.

This game’s total of 40.5 (over -112; under -108 at FD) is a sign of respect for both the Miami (11-2) and Ohio State (12-1) defenses, but also a reflection of some offensive struggles down the stretch by both squads.

Miami moved the ball well in its massive Week 1 win over Notre Dame, but it struggled, to say the least, against Texas A&M in its Playoff opener.

The Canes won that one despite picking up just 12 first downs and less than 300 yards of total offense. Thanks to a great day by the Miami D, which forced three turnovers — including one in the end zone in the final minute — and held Texas A&M to just 3 points, that lackluster offensive showing was enough to advance to the quarterfinals.

The bad news for Carson Beck and the Canes is that they’re facing an even better defense tonight. The Ohio State D has future first-round NFL Draft picks at every level, including likely top-10 picks Arvell Reese at LB and Caleb Downs at safety.

That unit shut down just about every offense it faced this season, including Texas in the season opener (OSU 14, UT 7) and Indiana — albeit in a 13-10 loss — in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Superstar DE Rueben Bain and the Canes’ own excellent front seven should be able to keep this game close for a half, but I’m going to back the Buckeyes to not only win, but cover.

It’s possible Beck* will play the game of his life and lead Miami to an upset in a low-scoring rock fight. I don’t see that happening, though. Remember, Beck not only threw for just 103 yards in Miami’s win over A&M earlier this month, but he also threw multiple picks against USF, Louisville and SMU, making him awfully tough to trust on this stage.

*I couldn’t find any sportsbooks offering “Carson Beck to throw over 1.5 interceptions,” but if you can track that down somewhere, I strongly recommend it.

Pick: Ohio State to advance

Best bets:

Orange Bowl — No. 5 Oregon (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Oregon (12-1) and Texas Tech (12-1) are both stout defensively, but this game is expected to be much more high-scoring than tonight’s matchup, with the total set at 51.5 at FanDuel (over -112, under -108).

QB Dante Moore and the Ducks have one of the most potent offenses in the country, but they have not faced a defense like Texas Tech’s. The Red Raiders boast two first-team All-Americans in pass rusher David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez.

Those two lead a unit that held all but one of Texas Tech’s opponents this year to 20 points or fewer.

Ultimately, cliché as I’m going to sound here, I think that this game will come down to the final minutes and which quarterback you trust more. Texas Tech’s Behren Morton put up big numbers, and he missed his team’s only loss this year due to an injury. He was rarely tested, though, as Tech won all 11 of his starts by at least 20 points.

Moore, on the other hand, came through in big wins over Penn State and USC. He’s also the much more highly touted NFL prospect, FWIW.

In a game that I’ll admit to struggling to get a read on, if I haven’t given that away yet, all I’ve got here is Oregon -2.5. While I would have loved to take Texas Tech at +3.5 or more, I like Dan Lanning’s battle-tested group to win a close one and cover at this number.

Pick: Oregon to advance

Best bet: Oregon -2.5 (best odds: -108 at DraftKings) — 1 unit

Rose Bowl — No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (-7)

Staying with the chalk, I’m done doubting top-ranked Indiana (13-0).

I did not expect IU to beat Oregon during the season or Ohio State in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game, but I’ve learned my lesson.

The Hoosiers arguably boast as much NFL talent as any team in the field, besides Ohio State, from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza under center to cornerback D’Angelo Ponds in the secondary.

Perhaps more importantly, Indiana appears to have no weaknesses in Year 2 under head coach Curt Cignetti.

Alabama (11-3) has several impressive wins on its resume, including victories at Georgia and Missouri, but the Crimson Tide’s inability to run the football is going to be a problem against the Hoosiers.

Bama took down Oklahoma in the first round of the CFP despite falling behind 17-0 on the road, picking up only 12 first downs and gaining a grand total of 28 yards on 25 rushing attempts. That is (obviously) not a recipe for success going forward.

Related: Alabama’s odds to win it all (18-to-1 at DK entering the CFP QF) are much closer to Ole Miss’s than Ohio State’s or Indiana’s.

I understand why an SEC power like Bama at +7 (or +7.5) is going to tempt a lot of bettors.

But barring multiple turnovers and/or special teams miscues by Indiana, I have a hard time seeing the Tide — who lost two games this year by 14 points, including a 31-17 disaster against Florida State in the season opener — covering.

Given how one-dimensional Alabama has been lately, I also like Alabama Team Total Under 19.5 and Alabama Total Yards Under 334.5.

Pick: Indiana to advance

Best bets:

Sugar Bowl — No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (-6.5)

Ole Miss (12-1) has a massive chance to avenge its only loss of the season, which came in Athens back in October.

The Rebels led Georgia 35-26 entering the fourth quarter on October 18, but they were outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. The Dawgs (12-1) went on to win out and finish as SEC champs for the second consecutive season.

Early this season, Georgia appeared to be much weaker defensively than any Kirby Smart team we’ve seen in a long time. This team gave up 41 points to Tennessee in an overtime win in Week 3, then lost 24-21 to Alabama two weeks later.

But the Bulldogs were suffocating in each of their last four games, holding Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech and Bama in the SEC title game to just 29 points.

Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels should have at least some success moving the ball tomorrow on a defense they lit up for three quarters earlier this season. The question is whether we should trust the Ole Miss D to stop Georgia. The latter piled up 34 (!) first downs and 510 yards of total offense in Round 1.

Even if the Rebels have less difficulty getting stops in this game, I don’t see them scoring enough on the much-improved Georgia D to pull off the upset (and I haven’t even mentioned the well-documented turmoil this team faced amid Lane Kiffin’s controversial departure to LSU).

If you’re looking for an outside-the-box play on this matchup (and/or you’re reluctant to just back all four CFP QF betting favorites), Ole Miss on the first quarter moneyline (+154) is worth a flier.

Would a strong start by one of the best offensive teams in the country really shock anyone??

Pick: Georgia to advance

Best bet: Georgia -6.5 (best odds: -108 at DraftKings) — 1 unit

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