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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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All four games in the Eastern Conference first-round playoff series between the Knicks (3) and Pistons (6) have been up in the air entering the fourth quarter, but playoff experience has made the difference in crunch time for the former.
Detroit had chances in the final minutes to win both Games 3 and 4, but came up just short, and it is now a massive longshot to make it out of the first round.
While oddsmakers don't give the Pistons a realistic chance to win the series, Game 5 is understandably not projected to be a cakewalk for the Knicks.
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Pistons vs. Knicks Game 5 Betting Odds
How to Watch Pistons vs. Knicks Game 5
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: TNT/Max
Pistons vs. Knicks Series Winner Odds
- DraftKings: NYK -2500; DET +1100
- FanDuel: NYK -4000; DET +1500
Best Pistons vs. Knicks Game 5 Player Props
Karl-Anthony Towns 3+ Made Threes (+240 at FD) -- 0.5 units
Towns 4+ Made Threes (+650 at DraftKings) -- 0.25 units
We explained before Game 4 why Towns was primed for a big scoring night, especially from outside.
Sure enough, he went well over his points prop of 22.5, with 27 points on 10-for-23 shooting.
Anyone who bet on his made threes props also came away happy. Towns -- whose long-range shooting makes him a brutal cover for Pistons big man Jalen Duren -- went 4-for-5 from 3 in a game he entered with +320 odds (FanDuel) to make at least three 3-pointers.
After Towns -- a 42 percent shooter in the regular season -- went 1-for-5 on limited volume in Games 1 and 2 combined, the light bulb apparently went off for Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau before Game 3.
The versatile former Timberwolves star has gone 9-for-15 from outside (4-for-8 in Game, 5-for-7 in Game 4) over the last two games, making his 0 FGA in the fourth quarter of Game 2 even harder to understand than it was at the time. And believe it or not, there's more to the case for another strong night from outside by Towns in Game 5 than those numbers.
Duren was a force in the paint for the Pistons all year, averaging a double-double on an average of just 26 minutes per night. But the 21-year-old bruiser is out of his depth when asked to stay with Towns 25 feet from the rim. Here's how the last two games of Towns vs. Duren went, per NBA.com.
- In Game 3, Towns scored 13 points on 5-for-10 shooting (2-for-4 3PT) when matched up against Duren.
- In Game 4, Towns shot just 6-for-15 vs. Duren. But he scored 15 points thanks to 3-for-5 shooting from 3 with Duren on him.
The Pistons are aware of this, which his why they are also having Tobias Harris guard Towns as much as possible.
Unfortunately for Detroit, that adjustment leaves Duren on Josh Hart in a gamble that the latter (a 34 percent career 3-point shooter) will fail to capitalize on open looks. Hart didn't cooperate with this approach in Game 4, though, draining 2-of-3 triples when "guarded" by Duren.
Unless backup big Isaiah Stewart, who missed Games 2-4 and is questionable for Game 5 (knee), is able to return to the court, Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff seemingly has no choice but to hope Duren on Towns -- or Harris on Towns, with Duren on Hart -- goes much better tonight than it did at home in Games 3 and 4.
It all adds up to another strong shooting night from Towns, as long as he can knock down his open looks. And remember, despite a payout here that makes four made threes seem out of reach, Towns made that many treys eight times in the regular season.
Pistons vs. Knicks Game 5 Pick, Best Bets
Cade Cunningham has been excellent throughout this series for the Pistons, and if not for a missed foul call on a last-second shot by Tim Hardaway Jr. (the NBA's words, not mine) in the final seconds on Sunday, we'd probably be talking about a 2-2 series.
But while the hard-fought nature of Games 1-4 makes it easy to see the Pistons covering tonight, I expect Jalen Brunson (33.3 points per game in this series) and Towns (series average: 22.8 ppg) to once again make the difference down the stretch.
Pistons vs. Knicks Game 5 Best Bets:
- Pistons +5.5 (-110 at bet365) -- 0.5 units
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