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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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Following an intriguing first round of the 2025 NBA Draft, oddsmakers quickly installed No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg out of Duke as the heavy favorite in the 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Flagg is unsurprisingly -190 or shorter at most sportsbooks. In fact, based on the odds, top competitors Ace Bailey (Rutgers), Dylan Harper (Rutgers) and Tre Johnson (Texas) might need an injury to the No. 1 pick and/or a huge letdown of a season by Flagg to win this award.
While No. 5 overall pick Bailey, No. 2 pick Harper and No. 6 pick Tre Johnson are all +2000 (20-to-1) or shorter to win NBA ROTY in 2026, the rest of the contenders are massive longshots at closer to 30-to-1 odds.
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2026 NBA Rookie of The Year Betting Odds
Below are the ROTY odds as of June 26 at DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365 and BetMGM.
Below are some thoughts on how oddsmakers see the 2026 NBA ROTY pecking order, in no particular order:
- FD, bet365 and BetMGM all consider either Bailey or Johnson as the biggest threat to Flagg, but DK sees Harper as the clear second-favorite.
- The player oddsmakers are most closely aligned on is former Baylor star Edgecombe. Demin and Jakucionis, on the other hand, are seen as real contenders by some books, but much bigger longshots at others (especially Jakucionis at BetMGM).
- It's notable that Bailey -- who has the second-shortest odds across these four sportsbooks -- is seen as a legit ROTY contender despite tumbling out of the top three and going No. 5 overall to Utah. When the '24-25 NCAA season ended, Bailey was expected to go No. 3 at the latest.
Recent NBA Rookie of the Year History
Before we give out our take on whether Flagg will live up to the hype and win the battle for Rookie of the Year going away, let's look at the last 10 winners of the award for context (No. 1 picks in bold):
- 2025: Stephon Castle (Spurs, No. 4)
- 2024: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs, No. 1)
- 2023: Paolo Banchero (Magic, No. 1)
- 2022: Scottie Barnes (Raptors, No. 4)
- 2021: LaMelo Ball (Hornets, No. 3)
- 2020: Ja Morant (Grizzlies, No. 2)
- 2019: Luka Doncic (Hawks*, No. 3)
- 2018: Ben Simmons (76ers, No. 1)
- 2017: Malcolm Brogdon** (Bucks, No. 36)
- 2016: Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves, No. 1)
*Remember, it was Atlanta (not Dallas) who actually drafted Doncic, though the Hawks immediately traded him to the Mavs.
**Brogdon made history as the first player in the modern era to win Rookie of the Year as a second-rounder. He finished first in that year's vote ahead of the Philly duo of Dario Saric in second place and Joel Embiid in third.
While Wembanyama, Banchero, Simmons and Towns all won ROTY after being taken with the first pick in the draft, the recent history of this award makes it clear that going No. 1 is by no means a guarantee of a great rookie season.
Is Cooper Flagg The Best 2026 NBA ROTY Bet?
Flagg projects to be so impactful defensively that it's hard to see him not winning this award, especially given the heavy role he'll play in the Dallas offense until Kyrie Irving returns from his torn ACL.
Betting against Flagg this year might not be quite as bold as betting against Wembanyama in 2023, but I don't recommend it, either.
As a blanket rule, though, betting on a favorite for a season-long race at -190 or shorter is not a great idea, even if you think it would take an injury for Flagg to come up short in this race.
Best 2026 NBA Rookie Of The Year Longshot Bet: Tre Johnson, Wizards (+1200 at DK)
First of all, yes, I'm aware that I'm contradicting myself more than a bit here.
But with an emphasis on best longshot bet, there are a couple enticing options for anyone looking to cash in if this race ends up being less chalky than expected.
The good news is that because Flagg is so heavily favored, tempting ROTY odds of 10-to-1 or longer are available for even the top alternatives after the former Duke star.
It's probably going to take eye-popping scoring numbers on massive volume to top Flagg. Johnson, in Washington, and Bailey, in Utah, strike me as the best bets to lead this class in field-goal attempts, as Flagg, Harper and Edgecombe are all on rosters with clear-cut, proven go-to guys.
Johnson is joining a Wizards squad that just dealt away Jordan Poole. He has a chance to be a focal point on a roster featuring veterans Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum, as well as 2024 rookies Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George.
Shots won't be hard to come by for Bailey, either. He joins a Jazz team that finished with the worst record in the NBA in 2024-25, and he should have a massive role right away.
For me, Johnson -- a second-team all-confernce honoree and the top scorer in a historically good SEC -- is the play here thanks to his lights-out 3-point shooting (39.7 percent on 6.8 3-point attempts per game at Texas in 2024-25).
He's well worth a quarter-unit or so to win ROTY at +1200 at DraftKings.
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