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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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Euro 2024 comes down to Sunday's final between Spain and England, two squads that took very different paths to this point.
England arrived in Germany as the clear pre-tournament favorite, but struggled in both group play and throughout the knockout rounds. In fact, the combined score of Gareth Southgate's team's six matches in this tournament is 7-4 -- good enough, but barely.
After draws against Denmark and Slovenia in Group C, the Three Lions were nearly eliminated by Slovakia in the round of 16, but avoided an early exit thanks to a last-gasp goal by Jude Bellingham, then needed PKs to survive Switzerland in the quarterfinals.
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England beat the Netherlands in the semifinals in 90 minutes thanks to a memorable late strike from sub Ollie Watkins.
Spain, on the other hand, have easily been the most impressive team in the field. La Roja have outscored their opponents 13-3. They've trailed only briefly in two matches: in the early going against Georgia (in an eventual blowout) and for 12 minutes of their 2-1 semifinal win over France.
Euro 2024 will kick off at 3 p.m. ET from the Olympistadion in Berlin on FOX.
Spain vs. England Moneyline Odds
The three-way moneyline odds below apply to the result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time.
Spain vs. England Odds to Raise Trophy
The odds to raise the trophy, listed below, allow bettors to simply pick Sunday's winner:
Euro 2024 Golden Boot Odds
Before diving into Sunday's matchup, a quick word on where the Golden Boot race stands.
England's Harry Kane and Spain's Dani Olmo are tied with three goals apiece. Their odds entering the final are below.
They're just two of six players currently with three goals, but the other four -- Cody Gakpo (Netherlands), Georges Mikautadze (Georgia), Jamal Musiala (Germany) and Ivan Schranz (Slovakia) -- have all been eliminated.
Typically, if multiple players are tied once the tournament is over, the first tiebreaker is assists, followed by minutes played. But this year, as UEFA confirmed late this week, if all six finish with three goals apiece, then the Golden Boot would be shared by Kane, Olmo, Gakpo, Mikautadze, Musiala and Schranz
England vs. Spain Betting Analysis
Spain have been the tournament favorites ahead of England, who arrived to this tournament with the shortest odds, following the quarterfinal round. That's when Spain beat hosts Germany in extra time, while England beat Switzerland on PKs to narrowly avoid an early exit for the second round in a row.
Sportsbooks are sticking with Spain going into the final. That's understandable given this team's impressive wins over Croatia and Italy back in group play, as well as its performances in the quarters and semis against Germany and France. It's impossible to overstate how impressive it was that Spain knocked off Kylian Mbappe and the French with two starting defenders, Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand, unavailable due to suspension.
Spain have been outstanding in the midfield, as Rodri and Fabian Ruiz have controlled the middle of the pitch. Breakout star Lamine Yamal, who turned 17 on Saturday, has been the story of Euro 2024. His strike against France is set to go down as the goal of the tournament, and he's also added three assists in this competition.
It's Spain's balance that makes it so dangerous, though: nine players have scored a goal, and 11 of this squad's goals Euro 2024 have been assisted. Compare that to England, whose seven goals have come from just four players. Also note that only four of England's Euro 2024 goals were assisted.
If England stick with the 3-4-3 lineup that was employed against Switzerland and the Netherlands, how Bukayo Saka holds up against Spanish left winger Nico Williams and how well Kieran Trippier can contain Yamal on the right will be two huge questions for Southgate's side.
If Spain have a "weakness," it's the tendency they've shown in this tournament to try and ride out matches down the stretch when they lead by a goal. La Roja gave up a ton of scoring chances to Germany -- and the match ended up in extra time -- but did control the final minutes against France better, even with a makeshift back line.
For England, another key question is whether they can once again be the better team in the final minutes. This roster features plenty of talent outside the starting XI, but Southgate has stuck with most of his starters for nearly every minute possible. He did nail his subs against the Netherlands, though, boldly taking off captain Harry Kane and winger Phil Foden after 80 minutes for Watkins and 22-year-old Cole Palmer, who combined to produce the game-winner.
While eight English players have logged at least 500 minutes, no player for Spain has broken that threshold.
England vs. Spain Prediction, Best Bets
If the current versions of these teams played 10 times, it's hard to argue that Spain would raise the trophy more than half the time, for all the reasons detailed above.
But given England's knack for creating something out of nothing when it has to, bettors can't be blamed for thinking twice about backing the favorites, especially at the prices for this match.
Logic says to take Spain, and that's what we'll go with. It should come as no surprise, though, if this one requires extra time and/or PKs to be decided. In a match like this, especially considering that the final of both Euro 2020 (Italy vs. England) and the 2022 World Cup (Argentina vs. Spain) went to penalties, the draw is tempting at +180 at FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365.
Prediction: Spain 2, England 1
Best bets: Both Teams to Score -- Yes (+106 at FanDuel); Spain (+145 -- available across the board)
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