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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by approximately three points in Ohio’s closing polling averages, although the latest individual surveys leave room for either candidate to win.
As of 2:30 a.m. ET on November 3, Silver Bulletin gave Brown a 3.0-point lead, 48.4 percent to 45.4 percent, while RealClearPolling placed the candidates at 48.5 percent and 45.7 percent, respectively, producing a gap of 2.8 points.
David Niven, a political scientist who studies Ohio politics, told Newsweek that the central force in the Senate race was dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and with Republican control of state and federal government.
Read More on Politics
“The biggest factor right now is that Trump’s popularity has plummeted,” Niven said. “He has given away the Republican advantage that they otherwise have here.”
Economic dissatisfaction has contributed to the decline in support for Trump, Niven, who works at the University of Cincinnati, added.
“If Ohioans vote economics, this is a very competitive state,” he said, pointing to Ohio’s mix of manufacturing, farming and major corporations.
Today's special election will determine who completes the Senate term vacated by Vice President JD Vance and could play a decisive role in the battle for control of the chamber.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control because Vance can break a 50-50 tie for Republicans.
Whoever wins Ohio’s special U.S. Senate election will serve the remainder of the term through January 2029. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET today.
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Key Facts About the Race
- Cook Political Report rates Ohio as one of seven Senate toss-ups.
- Brown represented Ohio in the Senate from 2007 until 2025 before losing to Republican Bernie Moreno.
- Husted, a former lieutenant governor and secretary of state, was appointed to the chamber in January 2025.
- Ohio was once a presidential bellwether, but its shift toward the GOP has made Democratic statewide victories increasingly difficult.
- Trump carried it by 11.2 points in 2024, while Brown lost his seat by a considerably smaller 3.6-point margin.
Why It Matters
Brown’s performance in the 2024 Senate election explains why Democrats turned again to the former senator.
His pro-labor identity and long focus on manufacturing give him a route to voters who no longer routinely support his party.
Husted brings a different form of familiarity. Before entering the Senate, he served as speaker of the Ohio House, secretary of state and lieutenant governor, winning several statewide elections along the way.
What The Final Ohio Polls Show
Two final polls showed Brown ahead of Husted. AtlasIntel surveyed 1,801 likely voters from October 28 to November 1 and found Brown leading 51 percent to 44 percent, with a 2-point margin of error.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 717 likely voters, conducted from October 26 to November 1, placed Brown ahead 49 percent to 44 percent, with a 4.2-point margin of error.
The final Suffolk University/USA Today Network Ohio survey put Brown ahead by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent.
The survey conducted live telephone interviews with 500 likely voters from October 21 through 26, producing a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 points. Four percent remained undecided.
That result matched Suffolk’s September poll, suggesting stability rather than a late break. Its detailed figures placed Brown at 46.6 percent and Husted at 43.8 percent before rounding.
A Fox News Poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from October 15 through 19 showed a larger Democratic advantage, 52 percent to 47 percent. The likely-voter sample contained 1,592 respondents and carried a two-point margin of error.
Marist Poll found Brown leading 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters interviewed from October 15 through 18. The survey began with 1,176 registered voters and applied a likely-voter model; its likely-voter findings had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
These polls differ in methodology and assumptions about turnout, but none establishes an insurmountable advantage.
Recent aggregators generally place Brown ahead by roughly three points, with variations caused by the polls included, their weighting, and the treatment of older results.
Niven cautioned against treating small late movements as proof that voters were switching candidates.
“As you get closer to Election Day, pollsters start more seriously adjusting who they expect to vote,” he said. “You can get a significant change in the numbers without a single Ohioan changing their opinion.”
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What Could Decide The Race
Economic pessimism appears throughout the polling.
Fox News found that 46 percent of likely voters considered their financial position worse than two years earlier, compared with 19 percent who said it had improved. Those reporting deterioration favored Brown by 49 points.
Tariffs, higher household costs and wider dissatisfaction with Republican leadership had made economic conditions especially damaging for the party, Niven said.
Because Republicans control both the state government and the federal government, voters unhappy with prices have a clear target for their frustration, he explained.
“The backlash is absolutely story number one,” he said. “Republicans have had almost uninterrupted success in Ohio for the last dozen years.”
He added: “But the problem has been Trump's war and Trump's tariffs. They have hit Ohio hard.
“[Voters] are looking at economic issues. And importantly, they've been disappointed by Republican leadership. The economy is slapping them in the face. And it's no mystery who to blame.”
The October Marist Poll similarly found Trump underwater among likely Ohio voters, with 43 percent approving of his performance and 55 percent disapproving.
Forty percent said their congressional vote was primarily a vote against him, while 21 percent described it mainly as a vote in his favor.
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The Trump Effect and Incumbency Factor
Another uncertainty is whether Trump can transfer his unusually strong turnout operation to a Republican candidate when the president is campaigning but is not personally on the ballot.
Niven said Trump had repeatedly drawn out voters who might otherwise have stayed home, but questioned whether the effect could be reproduced for Husted.
“That magic has only worked when he’s been on the ballot,” Niven said. “He hasn’t shown the ability to replicate that effect.”
The president’s involvement may also cut both ways. Niven said Trump remained “a powerful motivator for Democrats,” meaning his campaign appearances could energize supporters and opponents simultaneously.
Husted’s incumbency presents a separate complication.
He entered the Senate through appointment rather than winning the office in a statewide vote, and Niven argued that he had struggled to establish the visibility normally associated with an incumbent.
“A lot of what we’ve seen with Husted is a failure to make his mark while he was in office,” Niven said.
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How Much Can Cash Shift the Dial?
The contest has also subjected Ohio voters to an exceptional volume of advertising.
AdImpact data reported in mid-October put total spending at $423 million, including $350 million from outside groups, with Republican-aligned organizations holding a $105 million advantage in outside expenditure.
Brown nevertheless aired more broadcast advertisements because candidate campaigns receive lower advertising rates than outside groups.
Niven questioned how much additional spending could still achieve once voters had been exposed to such a sustained barrage.
“At this point, they could be shoveling that cash into a furnace and it would have the same effect on voters,” he said.
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Where To Watch On Election Night
Two counties will offer contrasting tests of whether Brown has assembled a winning coalition, Niven argued.
Delaware County, north of Columbus, will indicate whether affluent and college-educated voters in traditionally Republican territory are continuing to move away from the GOP.
Mahoning County will show whether the former senator has recovered working-class support in northeast Ohio.
“Mahoning County was once Sherrod Brown’s best county when he ran in 2012,” Niven said. “By 2024, he lost it. If the Democrats are winning Mahoning and Delaware, it is going to be a very good night for them.”
What Happens Next
The closing surveys give Brown an advantage, not a guaranteed victory. Differences between likely-voter models, third-party support and the composition of the Election Day electorate leave room for either candidate to win.
“If Husted wins, it will be a devastating loss for Democrats because Sherrod Brown has embodied what a Democrat is in Ohio,” Niven said.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Emma Lee-Sang
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