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By Micah McCartney
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Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to North Korea, set to begin on Tuesday, could pave the way for an agreement that elevates the neighbors' military partnership, according to South Korean intelligence.
Russia and North Korea on Monday confirmed Putin would be arriving on Tuesday for his two-day trip in a widely anticipated visit since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un invited the Russian president during a trip to Russia in September.
Seoul believes the bilateral relationship, which has strengthened since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, could be set to deepen. "There is a possibility that the cooperation between North Korea and Russia could become something close to the 1961 model," South Korea's Yonhap News Agency quoted one intelligence official as saying.
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The official was referring to the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance signed in 1961 by North Korea and the then-Soviet Union, which committed both states to each other's defense in the event of an attack.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 left China, which had signed a similar 1961 treaty with North Korea, as that country's sole remaining defense treaty ally. The new round of treaties Moscow signed with Pyongyang in 2000 did not include a defense provision.
Such a pact could further complicate the security environment in East Asia, where South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. are deepening military cooperation on the Kim regime.
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"We will continue to monitor the situation and thoroughly analyze the results of Putin's visit," South Korean National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin said in a Yonhap News TV interview Sunday.
"Our response, which will be calibrated and firm, will be based on a comprehensive assessment of whether this amounts to rhetoric or something more, and to what extent any such rhetoric might go," Chang said, adding his country has warned Russia not to "go beyond a certain point."
The Russian foreign ministry and South Korean embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to written requests for comment.
The U.S., South Korea, and other countries have expressed concern over the countries' growing ties.
North Korea is believed to have helped replenish Russian stocks of ammunition as its forces continue their offensive in Ukraine.
North Korean missiles have reportedly been found in Ukraine after being fired by Russian forces, and satellites have captured images of Russian ships taking on cargo at North Korean ports.
Washington and Seoul suspect that in return, Russia has provided North Korea with technology that could benefit its military and surveillance satellite programs.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, South Korea's defense minister Shin Won-sik said his country has detected at least 10,000 shipping containers being transferred from North Korea to Russia, enough to hold nearly 5 million artillery shells.
Shin said he and his Japanese and U.S. counterparts would soon sign an agreement to formalize their defense coordination on North Korea.
"We condemn in the strongest possible terms the increasing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including North Korea's export and Russia's procurement of North Korean ballistic missiles in direct violation of relevant UNSCRs (United Nations Security Council resolutions), as well as Russia's use of these missiles against Ukraine," said the joint statement that emerged from the Group of Seven leaders' meeting last week in Apulia, Italy.
The leaders also expressed concern over Russia's potential transfers of nuclear or ballistic missile technology, calling on Pyongyang to abandon these programs and criticizing the Kim regime for prioritizing these over his people's welfare.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest in decades over North Korea's nuclear weapons program, recent monthlong series of missile tests, and spy satellites sent up by both Koreas since last fall.
The North has also withdrawn from dialogue with the South, changing its constitution to label Seoul an enemy and purging symbols and organizations associated with a future reunification. Further straining tensions, both sides have suspended a 2018 treaty to reduce tensions along the Demilitarized Zone separating the restive neighbors.
Though an armistice in 1953 ended three years of open hostilities, the Koreas are technically still at war, having not signed a peace treaty.
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