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By Jenni Fink
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that Americans can expect a larger tax refund this year because of President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill."
"For working families, for each wage earner, we could see up to $1,000 per wage earner," Bessent told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Mornings with Maria at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Why It Matters
Part of the reason Trump won the 2024 election was his economic policies, amid Americans' frustration with stagnant wages and rising consumer prices. However, since taking office, Americans have grown less confident in Trump's ability to solve the issues plaguing the economy and continue to be frustrated with inflation and the housing market.
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While Trump can't run for another term, the economy is one of his top focuses as president because, if it doesn't turn around, Republicans are likely to suffer in the midterm elections. With a slim majority in Congress, losing seats in the midterms threatens Republicans' hold on power in the House and the Senate, making it harder for Trump to be an effective second-term president.
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What To Know
Trump has attempted to get creative to address some of the problems with the economy, floating plans to let people borrow from their 401(k)s for a down payment on a home and to prevent large financial institutions from purchasing single-family homes. Trump's also championed his "One Big Beautiful Bill" for giving Americans more money back on their tax refunds.
Last month, Bessent predicted there would be up to $150 billion in tax refunds, "which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household." During an interview on the All-In podcast, Bessent said that 2026 would be a "gigantic refund year" because Americans didn't change their withholdings and the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax changes are retroactive to the beginning of 2025.
Bessent also said he expects to see a "big year" for real incomes, putting more money in Americans' pockets.
The Tax Foundation, a think tank, estimated that the average refund check will be $3,800. That's an increase from $3,052 for the 2024 tax year and $3,004 for the 2023 tax year. Their estimates are slightly lower than what Bessent expects Americans to receive, but refunds will depend on each person's tax filing situation.
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Americans getting larger refunds and seeing real income growth will be welcome news for the administration as Trump's polling on the economy continues to drag him down. A Wall Street Journal poll found nearly 6 in 10 Americans described the economy as "not good" or "poor." Nearly 50 percent believe it's gotten worse since last year, and Trump's approval rating on how he's handling the economy is underwater. Trump's disapproval rating on the economy is the highest it's been since the WSJ started tracking it in April 2025.
A majority of Americans blame Trump's policies for the poor economy, according to the poll.
While Democrats are more likely to rate the economy as bad, Republicans aren't thrilled about it, either. A Fox News poll from December found nearly half of Americans rate the economy negatively, and Republicans and Democrats agree that Trump's top priority needs to be high prices.
What People Are Saying
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X: "Thanks to President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, millions of Americans may see the largest tax refunds of their lives in 2026. And as withholdings are adjusted, millions will take home bigger paychecks every month this year."
Adam Brewer, a tax attorney, told Nexstar: “The administration and Congress picked winners and losers. As a result, not all income is taxed equally. If your income is based largely on overtime or tips, then you could be paying much less income tax than your co-worker who is a salaried employee even if you earn roughly the same amount.”
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, told Fox News: "Trump’s position is better than Biden’s a year ago, but worse than his own in late 2017. The problem is voters haven’t gotten used to a six-dollar box of cereal, and they don’t think the president’s policy initiatives—the One Big Beautiful Bill, and on tariffs and immigration—are addressing prices."
What Happens Next
Bessent announced in January that the tax filing season would start earlier than most other years, commencing on January 26. Americans are encouraged to file their taxes early because refunds are issued on a rolling basis, and filing early can help prevent delays in receiving their refund. Bessent believes that the tax refunds and the benefits of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" will provide a tailwind for the economy, bringing Americans relief as the year continues.
Update 1/20/26, 11:25 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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