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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats are pushing for a change in their party’s congressional leadership, but Senator Chuck Schumer and Representative Hakeem Jeffries are seeing their chances of retaining their leadership posts rise on prediction markets after securing major victories during the midterms.
Democrats emerged victorious in the midterms, winning relatively comfortable majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats have won 254 House seats and 54 Senate seats, with 16 uncalled House races and two uncalled Senate races that could add to their margin.
As the dust settles from the blue tsunami, Democrats are now grappling with their path forward and how to best navigate the second half of President Donald Trump’s term with the largest majorities either party has seen in years.
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The Democratic coalition remains divided about whether Schumer and Jeffries, both New York Democrats, should remain party leaders, or whether it is time for new voices to take over leadership roles in Congress.
Throughout the past few years, many Democratic voters have lamented what they have viewed as a feeble approach to Trump, though leaders have noted their options were limited as they were completely shut out of power in D.C.
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That frustration has culminated in a push for new leadership, but it’s not entirely clear that D.C. Democrats are prepared to dump Schumer and Jeffries, particularly after their party saw better-than-expected returns last Tuesday. Some Democratic lawmakers may be reluctant to replace leaders after such a strong performance, despite frustration among party activists.
Newsweek reached out to the offices of Schumer and Jeffries for comment via email.
Jeffries, Schumer See Rising Chances on Prediction Markets
Both Jeffries and Schumer have seen their chances of retaining their leadership positions tick up on key prediction markets.
Schumer had an 89 percent chance of becoming the Senate majority leader on Tuesday, up from only a 70 percent chance one week earlier, on Kalshi. Meanwhile, Jeffries’ chances of becoming House speaker rose from 82 percent one week earlier to about a 96 percent chance on Tuesday on the market.
Jeffries’ chances have held steady on Polymarket, which gave him about a 94 percent chance of becoming Speaker on Tuesday as well as one week earlier. His chances temporarily dipped below 90 percent on Sunday but have since recovered.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Schumer Confident Despite Reluctance From New Senators
Several Democrats have said they believe the Senate needs new leadership and have indicated they would not vote for Schumer.
Democrats who won competitive races such as Annie Andrews in South Carolina, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Troy Jackson in Maine have indicated they believe it’s time for new leadership.
"I’ve told Senator Schumer I’m going to support somebody else," Jackson, who unseated Republican Senator Susan Collins, told reporters last week.
Juliana Stratton, who won a Senate seat in Illinois, has also said she wants to see new leadership.
Democrats have pointed to alternatives like Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen.
RootsAction, a left-leaning activist group, launched a campaign on Tuesday urging constituents across the country to encourage their senators to support Van Hollen, rather than Schumer.
The group wrote in an email that Schumer "has been a devoted servant of corporatism, Big Tech, go-slow status-quo economics, and Israel-right-or-wrong policies," and that voters "rejected those policies at the polls."
Schumer must win a majority of votes from the Democratic caucus. Unlike the House, there is no floor vote for the Senate majority leader. He has expressed confidence that he has the votes to become the next leader.
On Wednesday, Schumer was asked about the newly elected candidates who say they won't back him: "The issue is not me. I'll be reelected as majority leader. But the issue is focusing on the American people and what they want."
Some Democrats Decline to Commit to Jeffries
Many Democrats are also noncommittal on Jeffries, who would need to win a majority of votes on the House floor. With Democrats expected to win more than 250 House seats, he has more cushioning than previous potential speakers.
He is facing pushback from both progressives aligned with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and moderates from Trump-won districts.
Representative-elect Darializa Avila Chevalier, a Democratic socialist who won New York’s 13th District, has declined to commit to supporting Jeffries, telling CNN she is still "weighing" the vote.
"I think it's going to be a very important vote, and something that I'm trying to make sure that I've discussed with my community, discuss with folks who understand the consequences and the significance of this," she said.
Representative-elect Jamie Ager, a North Carolina Democrat who was endorsed by the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, declined to commit to Jeffries in remarks to Fox News.
"I don’t know," he told the news outlet. "We’ll see."
Representative-elect Don Leonard, who flipped a GOP-held seat in Ohio, said in a video posted to Instagram that senior House members told him voting against Jeffries "basically means making my life a living hell for the next few years here in Washington as well as being sure to lose my election in two years."
"We kind of knew this stuff was coming. It’s part of the stuff you see in the movies," he said.
Despite uncertainty from some members, it’s not clear that anyone will run against Jeffries. Nobody has announced a challenge, and other progressives have said they would support Jeffries. Representative-elect Brad Lander, of New York, told The New York Post he is supporting Jeffries.
"Right now, we need a unified party that is going to bring costs down, address those health care cuts, end the war, end those tariffs and get some accountability," he said. "For now, we need disciplined, strategic unity."
How Popular Are Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries?
Neither Schumer or Jeffries is particularly popular, according to a poll from YouGov and The Economist released after the midterms.
It found that only 23 percent of Americans view Schumer favorably, compared to 54 percent who view him unfavorably. Meanwhile, Jeffries fared only a bit better—27 percent viewed him favorably, while 45 percent viewed him unfavorably.
The poll surveyed 3,166 registered voters from November 4 to 6, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
What Happens Next?
Although prediction markets continue favoring Schumer and Jeffries to win their leadership elections, they are not always predictive of the future. Developments over the coming days and weeks could shape the debate over whether to change congressional leaders.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Samantha Beech
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