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By Jenna Sundel
News Reporter
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Two popular prediction market websites placed the odds of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito retiring before the end of the year at above 50 percent amid speculation over his plans for the future.
Kalshi placed the odds of Alito before January 1 of next year at 50.6 percent. Polymarket said the odds Alito will announce his retirement by December 31 are 53 percent.
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Alito, 76, has not publicly announced his retirement. The New York Times reported that those in close contact with Alito said they are unsure about his plans.
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Why It Matters
The Supreme Court currently has a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by President Donald Trump during his first term: Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett. The Court’s conservative majority has ruled in favor of the Trump administration on several issues such as immigration enforcement.
Trump previously said in an interview with Politico that he hopes Justices Clarence Thomas, who is 77, and Alito remain on the bench.
“I hope they stay ’cause I think they’re fantastic, OK? Both of those men are fantastic,” Trump said.
What To Know
Alito became ill at an event in Philadelphia last month and was treated for dehydration. He did not stay at the hospital overnight and returned to court the following Monday.
Alito’s friends, former colleagues and law clerks said that he would prefer to have a Republican president choose his successor, The New York Times reported. Alito was appointed by President George W. Bush and joined the Supreme Court in 2005.
The expected release date of Alito’s new book has also led legal experts to speculate that he might have plans to retire this year. The book, So Ordered: An Originalist’s View of the Constitution, the Court, and Our Country, is scheduled to be released on October 6. The first day of arguments in the Supreme Court’s 2026-2027 term is set for October 5.
Elie Mystal, a legal analyst and justice correspondent for The Nation, said in a column: “It sure feels like Alito doesn’t plan on having a real job the Tuesday his book launches and instead thinks he’ll be free to run around the country promoting it.”
Mystal said that most recent books released by sitting Supreme Court justices had publication dates in September or May, with the exception of Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s children's book published in January 2022.
Georgetown University Law Center professor Steve Vladeck said in his newsletter, One First, that “the October publication date is a pretty big tell since one can’t exactly go on a book tour during the first argument session of the term.”
David Lat, a legal journalist, expressed a different view in a Bloomberg Law column.
“First, Alito remains energetic and engaged as a justice," Lat said. "He continues to produce solid and smart, if not particularly stylish, opinions—and he’s known around One First Street for being one of the least clerk-dependent justices.”
Lat noted that Justices Stephen Breyer, who retired in 2022, and Anthony Kennedy, who retired in 2018, served until they were 83 and 82, respectively.
“As for the Oct. 6 publication date, I’m assuming Alito and his publisher simply wanted to take advantage of the spike in media coverage of the court that the start of a new term brings," he said. "Yes, this will curtail Alito’s ability to go on a book tour or do signings, but I’m guessing that’s a feature, not a bug, from the justice’s point of view.”
Watchers of the court are also examining Alito’s clerk hirings. As the end of the term approaches, Alito has not yet hired a full staff of four law clerks, who typically start during the summer, The New York Times reported. However, the justice is known for finalizing hiring later than his colleagues, and he is in the process of interviewing candidates, the outlet reported, citing people familiar with his plans.
What People Are Saying
Elie Mystal, a legal analyst and justice correspondent for The Nation, in a column: “The publication date of his book is a giant tell. I think he’s leaving while Republicans still have the political power to replace him with another Sam Alito who is 30 years younger.”
David Lat, a legal journalist, in a Bloomberg Law column: “The publication of Alito’s book might, if anything, suggest that he’s staying put. Book buyers are far more interested in the thoughts of a current justice as opposed to a retired one: The memoirs of Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Amy Coney Barrett became bestsellers, while the memoir of retired Justice Kennedy did not. So I could see Alito not stepping down until well after publication of 'So Ordered.’”
What Happens Next
The U.S. Supreme Court's 2025-2026 term is expected to end in June.
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