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By John Feng and Brendan Cole
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Russian forces are likely to try to "exploit the cracks" in Kyiv's operations in the Donetsk region as the war heads into a third winter, a military analyst whose map shows what might be in store on the front in the coming months told Newsweek.
Days after Vladimir Putin's troops were pictured raising their flags over a municipal building in Selydove, the defense ministry in Moscow said Tuesday its troops had captured the important staging area for Ukraine's defenses.
Selydove is the largest town seized by Russia since the fall of Avdiivka and it is around 11 miles southeast of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk—a focus for Russian forces to meet one of Moscow's war aims of controlling the whole of the Donetsk oblast and the wider Donbas region.
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Push for Pokrovsk
Emil Kastehelmi, an open-source intelligence expert with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said that Russia is conducting an offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk on a 30-40 mile wide front—from Selydove to the villages east of Velyka Novosilka.
"In these areas, Russian activity has increased, and they have been able to rapidly advance in various villages and fields," Kastehelmi told Newsweek. "It's a concerning development for Ukraine, as such quick movements have usually not been observed."
"The current advances in Selydove can be seen as a preparation to create better positions for an assault towards Pokrovsk," he said.
After capturing Selydove, Russian forces are likely trying to force the Ukrainians to retreat from Kurakhivka. If Russian troops can reach the reservoir in the area it would provide them with good starting points for further operations. "On an operational scale, they're likely trying to push Ukraine out of southern Donetsk, and while doing that, there are likely ambitions to encircle Kurakhove, which is a heavily fortified city," he said.
October has been a tough month for Ukraine, with Russian troops making gains south of Kupyansk, where they pushed to the Oskil River. On Tuesday, Russia advanced southeast of Kupyansk and west of Svatove.
Russian forces have also crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal, reaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, potentially ahead of an assault on the city. Moscow's troops have also breached Ukrainian defenses near Toretsk.
In the southern direction, Kastehelmi noted how Russian troops had advanced over six miles in a few days and now control at least most of Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka, and likely have complete control of Bohoyavlenka.
This pace of advance and the aerial capabilities could have serious consequences for Ukraine, which will not be able to bring construction equipment very close to the front, at least without high troop losses.
He said the southern push would continue to make progress through the unfortified fields, also towards Andriivka, forcing Ukrainian troops out of the heavily fortified Kurakhove area. Ukraine may be able to transfer reserves and grind down mechanized assaults, but it could lose Kurakhove before the end of the year.
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Ukraine's Mobilization
In its latest update, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Tuesday that Russian advances of around 14 square kilometers (5 square miles) per day remained slow and "consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver."
The Washington, D.C., think tank said while the capture of Vuhledar and the area around Selydove were "tactically significant," they do not signal an increase in the pace of Russian advances across the frontline, "much of which remains relatively stagnant."
The ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces are probably stepping up their mechanized attacks before muddy ground conditions in the fall months set in.
"The fall of Selydove shows that the balance of power has shifted in favor of Russia," Vuk Vuksanovic, an associate at the London School of Economics' think tank LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek.
"The fact that Selydove has not been leveled like Bakhmut is both because Russians want to use this city for further operations and, more importantly, that there were not enough Ukranian troops."
"The logical next target is the strategic city of Pokrovsk," he said. "The Russians have the intention of completing their control over the Donetsk region since the bulk of Moscow's recent territorial gains are in Donetsk."
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However, these gains are coming at high price in personnel and equipment. Ukraine said on October 28 Russia had sustained more than 10,000 casualties in one week.
Ukraine continues to push for permission to use Western-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, and Kyiv is also hoping that a change to the country's mobilization laws in April will help replenish troop numbers quickly.
"Despite the help and the recent mobilization actions, Ukraine is still struggling to stabilize the front and build new capabilities," Kastehelmi said. "The Russians likely want to exploit the cracks in the Ukrainian lines, and that's what we're seeing now.
"We'll just have to wait and see how effectively Ukrainians are able to establish and hold the new defensive positions."
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