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By Brendan Cole and Ellie Cook
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The current rate of Russian tank losses in President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine could see them run out of the military vehicles by the end of next year, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
In releasing its annual assessment of global military capabilities, the think tank said Russian forces lost around 1,400 main battle tanks (MBTs) in 2024, along with other high losses of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs).
Newsweek has yet to verify this and has emailed the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
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Why It Matters
The IISS assessment of Russian tank losses backs up Kyiv's estimates of the high cost in equipment that Moscow is paying for its full-scale invasion. The prospect of a looming shortage of tanks could make a difference on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
What To Know
In its report "Military Balance" released Wednesday, the IISS estimated that last year, Russian equipment losses amounted to around 1,400 tanks, as well as 3,700 IFVs and APCs. Over the course of the war, Russia has lost approximately 14,000 MBTs, IFVs and APCs, the IISS said.
Its report added that Russia has been able to reconstitute some of these losses by relying on stored Soviet legacy equipment and that in 2024, Moscow's forces had refurbished and built more than 1,500 MBTs and around 2,800 IFVs and APCs.
However, the equipment in storage is highly likely to be in a deteriorated condition, and this may make it hard for Russia to deliver enough equipment to offset previous attrition rates.
IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Bastian Giegerich said current Russian equipment losses cannot be offset indefinitely by refurbishing stored vehicles. He added that Moscow may not have enough MBTs for its offensive operations beyond 2026.
However, Giegerich also said that Ukraine's forces were also under strain through attrition and troop shortages and were increasingly relying on developing unmanned aerial vehicles and using one-way attack UAVs to strike deep inside Russia.
What People Are Saying
IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Bastian Giegerich said of Russia: "While its defense industry demonstrated resilience, its current rates of production and the refurbishment of stored vehicles will not offset battlefield losses indefinitely.
"The IISS assesses that Russia will not have sufficient main battle tanks to conduct effective offensive operations beyond early 2026 if it maintains the same operational tempo and suffers the same losses as in 2024."
What Happens Next
Regardless of the high equipment losses, the IISS analysis showed that Russia is continuing to spend huge sums on its military, with expenditure growing by 42 percent in real terms in 2024 to an estimated $145.9 billion.
However, in terms of purchasing power in parity terms, the figure was closer to $462 billion, which was more than total European spending in 2024.
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