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By John Feng and Maya Mehrara
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Russia is losing 138 troops per square mile gained in Ukraine, according to a Russian offensive campaign assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The nonprofit think tank reported that Russia is suffering increasing troop losses due to efforts to make tactical advances in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.
The ISW wrote: "Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024 in exchange for 2,356 square kilometers [909 square miles] of gains. (Or approximately 53 Russian casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized.)" This is equivalent to 138 troops per square mile gained in Ukraine for this three-month period.
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Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for comment via email.
In a statement to Newsweek on Friday morning, the ISW said, "Russians can either serve in uniform in Ukraine, or work in Russia's domestic economy, but they cannot do both simultaneously. The Kremlin is unlikely to sufficiently meet its needs for labor in both the military and Russia's domestic economy in the near future, and additional months of intensified offensive operations in Ukraine in 2025 and beyond will only further compound Russian resourcing dilemmas."
Despite significant manpower losses, Russia has made inroads in terms of gains in the Donetsk region recently, as they seized territory near Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove earlier this week.
As shown in this map created by Newsweek, Russia made additional gains in Donetsk on December 5 in Kurakhove and Vuhledar.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine has come at a high cost to the Russian population, and the ISW reported that the manpower losses may not be sustainable in the long-term progression of the war.
Russian forces suffered the greatest loss in troops per month since the beginning of the war in November with 45,720 soldiers killed, according to Armed Forces of Ukraine's figures. Russian manpower losses in recent months have steadily increased, particularly since June. Moscow does not publicize its military losses, and analysts are skeptical of casualty reports from both sides.
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During September and October, the ISW reported that Russian forces suffered casualties amounting to 80,110 troops while gaining approximately 1,517 square kilometers [586 square miles] of gains in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast.
In terms of territorial gains in November, the ISW reported that Russian forces "advanced at a rate of roughly 27.96 square kilometers per day and seized a total of 839 square kilometers [324 square miles] in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast."
The ISW wrote that Russia's restricted labor pool is unlikely to be able to sustain this "increased casualty rate in the medium-term, and continued Western military support for Ukraine remains vital to Ukraine's ability to inflict losses at this rate."
Ukrainian military observer Petro Chernyk said that in order to maintain their current casualty rate and successfully seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, the Russian Ministry of Defense would have to increase monthly recruits from 40,000-42,000 recruits to 50,000, according to ArmyInform.com.
Russia was recently rapidly approaching a new milestone in terms of troops losses and surpassed 750,000 soldiers killed in the war with Ukraine on December 6, according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine's post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Seemingly in effort to supplement the increasing loss of troops, Russia's partnership with North Korea has come to their aid as Pyongyang deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to the front lines in Kursk.
Update 12/6/24, 11:24 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from the ISW.
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