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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday he has instructed his high-ranking officials to develop an "algorithm for the use" of nuclear weapons deployed by Russia.
The ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "most" of the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow plans to place in his country have already arrived. Putin announced this year plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, where Moscow would complete construction of a storage facility for them.
The specter of nuclear weapons has hung over the 16-month-old war in Ukraine as propaganda on Russian state television, and comments by Putin, point to escalating rhetoric and hint that Moscow might abandon its "no first use" policy.
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Lukashenko said he would not reveal how many weapons had entered Belarus and that "it's surprising that they didn't trace it," Belarusian state media reported.
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He also said that Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, Chief of the General Staff Viktor Gulevich and Belarusian State Security Committee Chairman Ivan Tertel "have been tasked with determining the algorithm for applying [these] weapons," state news agency Belta reported. It is not clear what he meant by "algorithm."
"It should be based on the fact that we need to use it in a tough moment, if someone attacks us," added Lukashenko, referring to "an attack on the Union State" of Belarus and Russia.
Russian and Belarusian officials have said Minsk will not control the nuclear weapons deployed on its territory and that only Russia can.
Independent Russian-language outlet Politika Strani reported after Lukashenko's remarks: "therefore, it is not clear" what relation the Belarusian departments would have to the weapons' use.
Lukashenko also boasted about his role in ending the rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, who seized military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and marched on Moscow.
The deal included Prigozhin being exiled to Belarus, where some of his fighters are expected to follow. Lukashenko said that Wagner forces would not guard the weapons, adding, "this is our task."
Emma Claire Foley, associate partner for policy and research with the Global Zero movement, which is dedicated to eliminating nuclear weapons, said Lukashenko demonstrated "a lot of bluster" about his role in brokering that deal.
"It seems like these statements about nuclear weapons might be part of broader pattern of emphasizing and perhaps exaggerating his influence in internal Russian and regional politics," Foley told Newsweek.
"It's walking a line between asserting Belarus as having a distinct role to play in this broader situation, without explicitly making a nuclear threat which Russia would see as directed at it."
However, putting the weapons so close to neighboring Ukraine and other countries "makes it easier for by whatever chain of events to get to the point of nuclear use," Foley added.
Russian nuclear weapons will be delivered to the 2631st Missile and Air Ammunition Storage Base in Prudok, Vitebsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said, suggesting Lukashenko might use the weapons' presence "to balance against the Kremlin's campaign to absorb Belarus."
Nuclear weapons also might be used as a tool by Belarus "to posture against Russia," rather than threaten NATO or Ukraine, the ISW said.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month that the Biden administration is closely monitoring the situation between Russia and Belarus but there was "no reason to adjust" nuclear posture.
"A situation where Belarus independently decides to launch a Russian nuclear weapon would be an extreme outlier and would require a lot to go wrong from the Russian perspective and from everyone's perspective," Foley said.
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