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By Mandy Taheri
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Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, leads Republican Michael Whatley in the state’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll.
Why It Matters
Democrats are eyeing a narrow path to reclaiming control of the Senate, where Republicans hold the majority. The North Carolina contest follows Republican Senator Thom Tillis’ decision not to seek reelection, opening up a seat in a state that has leaned Republican in recent federal elections but remains closely divided.
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The state has backed Republican presidential nominees in the last three elections, including a roughly 3-point victory for President Donald Trump in 2024. But Democrats have shown they can win statewide races in North Carolina under the right conditions, making the open Senate seat there a focal point for national spending.
U.S. Senate, House and local candidates are ramping up their campaigns for the 2026 midterms. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to perform better in the midterms. Democrats face a difficult map to take back control of the Senate, needing to hold all of their seats and flip four Republican seats. The GOP holds slim majorities in both chambers of Congress.
What To Know
A Carolina Journal Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters found Cooper leading Whatley by about 8 percentage points, 49 to 41. About 4 percent of poll respondents said if the election were held today, they would vote for someone else, and 6 percent said they were unsure.
The two candidates won their party primaries earlier this month. Cooper, who served as the governor of North Carolina from 2017 to 2025, garnered a higher share of registered independents’ votes, 52 percent to Whatley’s 32 percent. Whatley previously served as Republican National Committee chairman. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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Many voters in the Tar Heel State split their ballots in 2024, supporting Trump for the third time while backing Democrats in various state offices, including governor, attorney general, superintendent, secretary of state and in the state Legislature. However, voters there have elected Democratic governors more recently than Democratic senators.
An earlier survey from Public Policy Polling conducted on March 13 and March 14 among 556 North Carolina voters shows Cooper leading Whatley 47 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Donald Bryson, John Locke Foundation CEO and Carolina Journal publisher, in a Thursday press release: “Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in the White House, and this poll shows that dynamic is alive and well in North Carolina. With more voters saying the country is on the wrong track and the president underwater, the environment is naturally tilting toward the out-party.”
Trump, in a March 19 post on Truth Social: "Michael Whatley is so Great! Running against a really bad former Governor who set murderers free to kill again, and was grossly incompetent on the big hurricane cleanup. I had to get it done when I took office on January 20th, and I did! I hope the Great people of North Carolina remember how BAD Roy Cooper was as Governor, especially on crime. Michael Whatley will be a FANTASTIC Senator. He led the Republican Party to VICTORY in 2024. Michael will be a GREAT SENATOR, one of the very best!"
Jeff Allen, Cooper's campaign manager, previously to Newsweek: "Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington DC insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class. A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate."
A polling memo from Public Policy Polling: “Democrats are decently well positioned for this fall eight months out from November. But North Carolina never has a blowout election.”
Whatley, in a Monday X post: "From shutting down DHS and trying to defund ICE to vetoing legislation to force NC Sheriffs to honor ICE detainers and get criminal illegal aliens out of North Carolina, Roy Cooper and the Democrats are fighting harder for criminal illegal aliens like Juan Aguilar than for you. I will fight every day to get illegal alien criminals off our streets and out of our country."
What Happens Next
The general election is set for November 3.
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