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By Andrew Stanton
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Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper held a lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest poll of North Carolina's Senate race released on Thursday.
Why It Matters
Democrats view North Carolina as perhaps their best opportunity to flip a Senate seat in the 2026 midterms, when they are hoping a "blue wave" will give them a chance at winning back a majority despite a challenging map. The decision to run by Cooper, who enjoyed positive approval ratings during his time as governor, has fueled Democratic optimism about their chances.
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But Republicans believe Whatley, who serves as the RNC chair and is endorsed by President Donald Trump, will be a strong candidate against Cooper—and Democrats have not won a Senate race in the Tar Heel State since 2008 despite several close races. In the 2024 presidential race, North Carolina gave Trump a narrow victory of about three percentage points.
The new poll underscores the competitive nature of the critical battleground race.
What to Know
The Harper Polling survey provided to Newsweek by the John Locke Foundation showed Cooper leading Whatley, but neither candidate had support from a majority of respondents. Cooper received support from 47.3 percent of respondents, while 39.1 percent said they planned to cast their ballot for Whatley in November next year.
Forty percent said they would "definitely" support Cooper, while only 24.7 percent said they would "definitely" support Whatley.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from August 11 to August 12, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.98 percentage points.
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It found that 47 percent of respondents view Cooper favorably, while 40 percent view him unfavorably. Whatley was more unknown among North Carolina voters, with 51 percent saying they had never heard of him. Fifteen percent viewed him favorably, while 11 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Voters were split about who they would support on the generic ballot for Congress—46 percent said they would support a Republican candidate, while 46.1 percent said they would support the Democratic candidate, according to the poll.
Donald Bryson, CEO and president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of the Carolina Journal, told Newsweek the poll findings are not surprising but provided a "great baseline" of the state of the race.
"Roy Cooper has vast name ID having been attorney general for 16 years, governor for 8. He's been in elected office in North Carolina since 1986. With all of that resume, it would be strange if he had a lower name ID that Michael Whatley," he said.
Whatley having lower name recognition is also not surprising as he has never held elected office in the state, Bryson said. He said that is not "necessarily a negative for Whatley," who will need to drive up Cooper's negative numbers and his own name ID over the coming year.
What is more concerning for Whatley is the poll's findings that 62 percent of North Carolinians believe tariffs will make prices higher for everyday North Carolinians, Bryson said.
"That is something that if I was working on his campaign as a consultant or a campaign manager, how do we answer this question on when the price of goods goes up due to the tariff regime put in place by the Trump administration—how do we spin this as good for the state of North Carolina?" he said.
Whatley's fate and criticism will likely be "tied to Trump," Bryson said.
Roy Cooper Leads Earliest Polls of North Carolina Senate Race
The poll is in line with the other early surveys of the Senate race.
An Emerson College poll released last month similarly showed Cooper with a lead over Whatley. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Cooper, while 41 percent said they would support Whatley next November. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from July 28 to July 30, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Victory Insights poll showed a closer race, with Cooper winning 43 percent of respondents and Whatley winning 40 percent of respondents. It surveyed 600 likely voters from July 20 to July 30, 2025.
While Cooper is not expected to face a competitive primary, as Democrats have cleared the field for him, it's unclear whether other high-profile Republicans will challenge Whatley, who has the support of Trump. Trump-backed candidates typically fare well in GOP primaries, giving Whatley an early advantage against other potential challengers.
North Carolina—An Elusive Battleground for Democrats
Democrats have made recent Senate races competitive in North Carolina but have struggled to prevail against Republicans in a state that has proven elusive for Democrats at the federal level in recent years.
In 2022, Republican Tedd Bud, then a member of Congress, defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley by about three points. GOP Senator Thom Tillis narrowly defeated Democrat Cal Cunningham by less than two points in 2020. In 2016, former GOP Senator Richard Burr defeated Democrat Deborah Ross, now a member of Congress, by nearly six percentage points.
At the same time, Democrats have held a grip on the governor mansion. Democrat Josh Stein, who succeeded Cooper, won November's gubernatorial race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.
Candidate quality is a key factor here, Bryson said, adding that the Republican base "tends to be more affected by national politics."
What People Are Saying
Bryson told Newsweek: "I think [Cooper is] in a really comfortable position now. I think it would be easy for the Cooper camp to feel like they're in a comfortable position and can coast for a little while. But I think what comes with that name ID and people being comfortable enough to say they would vote for him in this poll also comes with a long record."
Roy Cooper in a video announcing his candidacy: "I never really wanted to go to Washington. I just wanted to serve the people of North Carolina right here, where I've lived all my life. But these are not ordinary times."
Whatley wrote in a post to X: "President Trump asked me to run for Senate because North Carolina needs a strong, consistent conservative leader in the Senate. Someone who will fight to create jobs, protect our farmers, and make America the strongest country on the face of the Earth."
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both classify the North Carolina Senate race as a pure toss-up.
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