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By Andrew Stanton
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Former Democratic North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper announced he is running for Senate, bolstering Democrats' hopes of winning a Senate race in the Tar Heel State for the first time in nearly two decades.
Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, told Newsweek Democrats are "thrilled" about the announcement, as he is a top candidate in a "prime pickup opportunity."
Matt Mercer, communications director for the North Carolina GOP, on the other hand, told Newsweek North Carolinians "have had enough of radicals like Roy Cooper" and that he will "not be our next U.S. Senator."
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Newsweek also reached out to Cooper's campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The Senate election in North Carolina, a battleground roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, will likely be one of the most competitive races of the 2026 midterms, particularly after incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis opted against running for another term.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, so Democrats are hopeful President Donald Trump's approval rating, which most polls suggest has dropped in recent months, could give them an advantage despite a challenging map. But federal races in North Carolina have proven elusive for Democrats, who have not won the state at either the Senate or presidential level since 2008.
Cooper, who was governor from 2017 to 2025, is viewed as a strong recruit for Democrats, as he enjoyed strong approval ratings during his tenure leading the state.
What to Know
Cooper made his Senate campaign official in an announcement video posted to X.
"Right now, our country is facing a moment as fragile as any I can remember, and the decisions we make in the next election will determine if we even have a middle class in America anymore," Cooper said. "I never really wanted to go to Washington. I just wanted to serve the people of North Carolina right here, where I've lived all my life. But these are not ordinary times."
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His announcement notably comes just days after President Donald Trump endorsed the state GOP Chair Michael Whatley, who has not yet officially announced his campaign.
A poll released last week by co/efficient found that Cooper would be tied with a generic Republican candidate—each receiving 48 percent support from the survey's respondents.
In a head-to-head against Tillis, Cooper held a larger lead with 49 percent support compared to Tillis' 31 percent, in part because Tillis' support from the most conservative respondents lagged after his vote against Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." The poll surveyed 694 likely voters from July 10 to July 14, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.71 percentage points.
Roberts told Newsweek that Cooper is the Democrats' "dream candidate."
"It's probably the prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats in 2026, so they will put a lot of resources into it. Republicans will not want to lose this seat, so they'll have resources as well," he said.
Although Democrats have come up short in recent federal races, they may benefit from higher turnout and a more motivated base, Roberts said. Some Republican voters who show up in presidential races to back Trump may also stay home in the midterms as he is not on the ballot, he added.
It will also be one of the most expensive Senate races next year, as North Carolina has several media markets that make it costly to compete in, Roberts said.
A Change Research/Carolina Forward poll from earlier in the spring showed Cooper with a lead over Tillis before he opted against running. In that survey, 46 percent of respondents backed Cooper while 44 percent said they would vote for Tillis. That poll surveyed 867 likely voters from March 31 to April 4, 2025.
Oddsmaker Kalshi also gives Democrats an advantage in the Senate race. Democrats have a 67 percent chance of winning, while Republicans have a 33 percent chance in the betting market.
Trump narrowly carried North Carolina with 51 percent of the vote, compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris' 47.8 percent. Democrats have struggled in federal races but have fared better in gubernatorial elections. Democrat Josh Stein won last November's gubernatorial race by nearly 15 points after Republican candidate Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.
Roberts noted that Whatley has never held elected office, but that he would still be a "formidable candidate" if he ends up running.
What People Are Saying
Matt Mercer of the North Carolina GOP told Newsweek: "Roy Cooper has a 40-year record to defend where he's raised taxes, locked down schools, pardoned violent criminals, and failed in helping our fellow citizens recover from devastating hurricanes. North Carolinians have had enough of radicals like Roy Cooper who make their living off the taxpayers while supporting policies which make life unaffordable for families. He will not be our next U.S. Senator."
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Kirsten Gillibrand wrote in a statement: "Governor Cooper is a proven leader who has dedicated his life to serving North Carolina. From expanding Medicaid for hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians to bringing good-paying jobs to the state and taking on scammers and big banks, Cooper has always been a champion for North Carolina families."
The NRSC wrote in a post to X: "There are people you trust in the driver's seat. Roy Cooper isn't one of them. He crashed schools, revved up taxes, and took a hard left on crime. When disaster hit North Carolina, he hit cruise control and showed up 3 days later. Cooper isn't just off course, he's a WRECK."
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket wrote to X: "Best swing-state recruit Democrats have landed in years — and makes Dems slight favorites for the NC seat in 2026."
What Happens Next
Currently, former Representative Wiley Nickel is also running in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, Whatley is expected to announce. Several other Republicans have also been floated as potential candidates, but it's unclear whether Trump's endorsement will affect their plans.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both classify the North Carolina Senate race as a pure toss-up.
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