...
By Nick Mordowanec
Staff Writer
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's repeated threats of using nuclear weapons have created a "boy who cried wolf" situation, but nuclear experts cautioned the United States and its allies against becoming desensitized to the threat.
Since Russia first invaded Ukraine, Putin and his allies have threatened the West with the possible use of nuclear weapons if support to Ukraine continues. Western allies have bucked the threats, and continue to provide increasingly significant weaponry to Ukraine, but failing to take the threat seriously could put the world at risk. However, failing to take Putin's threats seriously could taint war-time calculations and put the world at risk if Putin is pushed too far.
"On the Western side it's a big problem," Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, told Newsweek. "Once we get used to these tones and rhetoric in the public, we start to say, 'Of course he's not going to do it' and then people get bolder and bolder and bolder, and you can imagine where you get into a situation down the line where Putin would revisit this issue [of using nuclear weapons]."
Read More
Belarus Urges ‘Truce’ as Putin’s Closest Ally Calls for War to End3 min read
Zelensky’s Gambit Puts China’s Xi on the Spot10 min read
Russian Official Warns of Plot to Overthrow Belarusian Government4 min read
Fears that Putin may resort to a nuclear weapon have increased over the past year. He suspended Russia's participation in the joint New START Treaty with the United States and on March 25 announced that Moscow would build tactical nuclear weapon storage facilities in Belarus, a country run by close Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko. Months earlier, Putin denied having any plans to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
...
Putin's rhetoric and recent actions are part of an overall "mixed" message, Nikolai Sokov, senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, told Newsweek.
Russia initially tried to leverage nuclear weapons to prevent assistance from being sent to Ukraine. But Russia quickly realized it was a failing strategy and began to retreat from its own provocations—only to revisit them again for a short period in September in response to a string of military defeats.
"Overall, you can say that there has been a lot of loose talk, unnecessary and even counterproductive from the Russian interests' point of view," Sokov said. "Several red lines were announced, but all have been surrendered."
While the threat of nuclear war is believed to still be low, experts aren't willing to completely rule out the possibility, especially as the war drags on.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed the desire to reclaim Crimea, a move experts believe Putin will absolutely not tolerate. If Russia was somehow militarily pushed out of Crimea—territory originally annexed by Russia in 2014, Kristensen said he could envision Putin resorting to nuclear weapons.
The United States has asserted for years that Crimea is part of Ukraine and maintains that there has been no change in U.S. policy. However, officials may be warming to the idea of helping Ukraine reclaim the territory because of the message it would send to Putin, according to the New York Times. There are concerns that helping Ukraine take back Crimea could escalate tensions with Russia and officials acknowledged the risk of Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon remain, even if it's lessened.
Lieutenant General Bob Ashley, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Newsweek Putin's "boy who cried wolf" approach to nuclear weapons could eventually cause the U.S. to discount the threat and significantly increase aid to Ukraine. However, he added, "I don't think we're there yet."
Even if Putin's threats are perceived to be empty, they've been effective, according to John Erath, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told Newsweek.
Countries including the U.S. have bucked Ukraine's repeated requests for aircraft like F-16 fighter jets "out of concern of escalating the situation."
Belarus housing Russia's nukes does not affect Russia's ability to use such weapons if it decided to do so, he added, as the country already has more than enough to strike any place at any time.
"It's more nuclear threats and blackmail like we have seen. That has been a very consistent pattern. The tool that the Russians have chosen to use is that of the nuclear threat," Erath said. "Anytime there's a threat, it has to be taken seriously."
Russia's decision to vacate its responsibilities within the New START, the only remaining nuclear arms control agreement with the U.S., also poses challenges as the two nations possess the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world. The recent New START limits each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers.
"Outside of North Korean threats a while back, this is the first time we hear a head of state [Putin] threatening to use a nuclear weapon," Sara Pozzi, a professor of nuclear engineering and radiological sciences at the University of Michigan and director of the Consortium for Monitoring, Technology and Verification (MTV), told Newsweek via email. "Of course Russia is a much more sophisticated adversary than North Korea and possesses a number of weapons that is similar to that of the United States."
Erath expects Putin to "keep going back" to the nuclear weapon threat because Russia doesn't have many other effective tools. However, it's a strategy that comes with a risk.
"How many times can you cry wolf before people begin to think you don't mean it, and you begin to look a bit ridiculous," Kristensen said. "He's not playing his card efficiently."
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines