By Hugh Cameron and Daniel Orton
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Midterms are still over six months away, but Republicans have found themselves saddled with another issue that could become a liability when appealing to their constituents during the campaign season: Iran.
Electoral forecasts have remained largely consistent with those before the U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, with the tracker RacetotheWH projecting Democrats to take control of the House and Republicans slightly favored to retain their Senate majority. But the conflict and its downstream domestic impacts could determine the political tail wind Democratic hopefuls might enjoy when trying to capitalize on what is considered a signature issue—affordability.
The conflict has led to the effective closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz, and other regional infrastructure damage has choked off global oil supplies, pushing the international benchmark Brent crude to roughly $110 per barrel from $70 before the U.S.-Israeli strikes. While the conditional ceasefire announced on Tuesday has brought prices closer to the $90 mark, and aroused hopes that Hormuz traffic could normalize, the domestic impacts of this have already shown up in significantly higher prices at the pump.
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Last week, according to AAA, national average prices for a gallon of regular gas exceeded $4 for the first time since the 2022 Energy crisis—an issue Republicans seized on at the time to boost their ultimately successful bid to reclaim Congress and interrupt much of President Joe Biden’s agenda—and have continued to climb above this threshold.
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Red to Blue: Democrats Eyeing Up GOP Seats
Congressional Democrats have already signaled that they intend to seize on the issue. Those on the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) released an analysis of how much Americans are now paying for gas, and contrasted this with President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to bring costs to under $2 a gallon.
And as affordability continues to be a key talking point in elections, sources told CBS News that White House officials are quietly fretting over the impact rising gas prices could have on the party’s midterm prospects.
While Democrats need to flip a handful of seats to take control of the House, the party’s official campaign arm has identified 44 congressional districts spanning the country that they label “in play” for November.
“We have an aggressive and disciplined strategy to get us above and beyond 218 seats,” the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) writes on its “battlefield” webpage. “With strong recruits, firm financial support, and a clear message, Democrats will flip these seats.”
“House Republicans from Harrisburg to Holland to Hidalgo campaigned on a promise to lower costs, and the receipts show they’ve failed miserably," DCCC Spokesperson Eli Cousin told *Newsweek. "*Whether it’s skyrocketing prices at the pump, the grocery store, or the pharmacy counter, every single vulnerable House Republican has rubber-stamped a cost-spiking agenda that is hurting working families in every corner of the country. It will be the defining issue of the midterms and propel Democrats back in the House Majority.”
Where Could Democrats Target Republicans on Rising Gas Prices?
Of these 44 Democratic targets, eight are open seats and two are currently held by the party. The remaining 34 Republican candidates find their potential voters contending with some of the highest gas prices in the nation amid the ongoing fallout from Operation Epic Fury.
Gas prices are not specifically reported by congressional district. To estimate fuel costs in each of the 34 Democratic target seats, Newsweek analyzed average gasoline prices published by AAA for the counties and metropolitan statistical areas that make up each district. Because many districts span only portions of multiple counties, these prices were weighted approximately based on district geography rather than precise census boundaries. The figures are estimates intended to reflect overall price conditions, not exact pump prices.
For example, Newsweek analysis of AAA data for April 2 suggests drivers in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District are paying roughly $4.44 a gallon on average, based on adjusted county-level figures, with prices highest in Cochise County and parts of rural southeastern Arizona.
This compares with a statewide average of $4.69 a gallon and a national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures from April 2.
Other districts, by contrast, are currently seeing prices comfortably below the nationwide average. These include Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, where prices averaged $3.44 on April 2, according to Newsweek’s analysis. That number does mark an increase compared to prewar levels.
Newsweek contacted the Republican incumbents in these districts via phone and email to comment on rising gas prices and whether they are concerned this could impact their reelection chances.
It remains to be seen whether the two-week ceasefire will give way to a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and gas prices have continued to rise in leadup to this truce, with the nationwide average reaching $4.16 for a gallon of regular unleaded as of Wednesday.
A number of the challengers squaring off with the 34 targeted GOP incumbents consider this issue—and the direct impact on constituents’ pocketbooks—a significant boost for their campaign hopes.
“Congressman Brad Finstad has not shown real concern for how expensive gas and everyday essentials are becoming here in southern Minnesota,” said Democrat Jake Johnson, a candidate for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District.
“I believe voters will make that clear this November,” he told Newsweek.
“As a military veteran who has flown missions through the Strait of Hormuz, I’ve seen how quickly instability there ripples through global energy markets,” said Rebecca Bennett, running against incumbent Tom Kean for New Jersey’s 7th District. “When leaders escalate conflict without a plan, it puts our service members at risk and drives up costs for families across the country, including right here in New Jersey.”
Will Gas Prices Affect the Midterms?
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Cliff Young, Chair of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that for Republicans, the obvious domestic price impact of the Iran war “goes against a primary issue of the midterms, which is affordability.”
“Going into this conflict, we were saying that the Republicans are going to have a challenging year; Trump’s party will have a challenging year,” he continued. “I think we could say even more so given what we’re seeing today.”
Others have indicated that voter sentiment will hinge on the duration of the conflict and whether oil prices can ease significantly, with James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy with the Council on Foreign Relations, predicting that, “should the war end in two to three weeks with gas prices quickly falling to prewar levels…then Operation Epic Fury will likely be quickly forgotten by most voters.”
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And the administration has shrugged off any potential electoral fallout of what it says are brief consequences of a crucial military mission.
"When Operation Epic Fury is complete, gas prices will plummet back to the multiyear lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to CBS News.
But energy analysts have been less optimistic that Americans will see immediate relief at the pump, even if Iran backs away from its current retaliation strategy.
“Once the Strait reopens, there would likely be a backlog of cargoes, logistical bottlenecks and continued caution from shippers and insurers, so normalization would be gradual rather than immediate,” Carol Nakhle, CEO of the consultancy Crystol Energy, told Newsweek.
“Some of the cargo loaded on the vessels in the Gulf will be available immediately, but initially many shipowners might be reluctant to load cargo from the region,” said Rajesh Verma, Deputy Director of Tanker Shipping research at Drewry. “As many producers have started halting production due to lack of storage capacity, restarting the production will take one-two months.”
Gas Prices in Democrats’ Targeted ‘In Play’ Districts
AK‑AL
Newsweek analysis of AAA data suggests drivers in Alaska’s at‑large congressional district are paying about $4.60 a gallon on average. That is above the national average of roughly $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
AZ‑02
Drivers in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District are paying around $4.56 a gallon on average, reflecting high fuel costs across much of Northern Arizona. That compares with a national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
AZ-06
Newsweek analysis of AAA data suggests drivers in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District are paying roughly $4.44 a gallon on average, with prices highest in Cochise County and parts of rural southeastern Arizona. That compares with a statewide average of $4.69 a gallon and a national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
CA‑22
Drivers in California’s 22nd Congressional District are paying roughly $5.79 a gallon on average, among the highest prices of any district analyzed. That is well above the national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
CO‑05
In Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, drivers are paying around $3.73 a gallon on average. That is slightly below the national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
CO‑08
Drivers in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District are paying approximately $3.75 a gallon on average. That is below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
FL‑07
In Florida’s 7th Congressional District, average gas prices sit at about $4.27 a gallon. That is slightly above the national average of roughly $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
FL‑13
Drivers in Florida’s 13th Congressional District are paying around $4.28 a gallon on average. That compares with a national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
FL‑15
Gas prices in Florida’s 15th Congressional District average about $4.28 a gallon, marginally above the national average of roughly $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
FL‑27
In Miami‑based Florida’s 27th Congressional District, drivers are paying around $4.15 a gallon on average. That is just above the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
IA‑01
Drivers in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District are paying about $3.44 a gallon on average. That is well below the national average of roughly $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
IA‑03
In Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, gas prices average around $3.50 a gallon, significantly below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
MI‑04
Drivers in Michigan’s 4th Congressional District are paying roughly $3.75 a gallon on average. That is below the national average of about $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
MI‑07
In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, gas prices average around $3.89 a gallon, still below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
MN‑01
Drivers in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District are paying about $3.63 a gallon on average. That is well below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
MO‑02
In Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, drivers are paying around $3.78 a gallon on average. That compares with a national average of roughly $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
NC‑03
Drivers in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District are paying about $3.91 a gallon on average. That is just below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
NC‑11
In North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, gas prices average roughly $3.89 a gallon, slightly below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
NJ‑07
Drivers in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District are paying around $4.11 a gallon on average. That is slightly above the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
NY‑17
In New York’s 17th Congressional District, drivers are paying about $4.10 a gallon on average. That compares with a national average of roughly $4.08, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
OH‑07
Drivers in Ohio’s 7th Congressional District are paying around $3.78 a gallon on average, below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
OH‑10
In Ohio’s 10th Congressional District, gas prices average about $3.72 a gallon, well below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
OH‑15
Drivers in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District are paying around $3.82 a gallon on average. That is below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
PA‑01
In Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, drivers are paying about $4.07 a gallon on average, roughly in line with the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
PA‑07
Drivers in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District are paying around $4.09 a gallon on average, just above the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
PA‑08
In Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, gas prices average about $4.10 a gallon, slightly above the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
PA‑10
Drivers in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District are paying roughly $4.08 a gallon on average, essentially matching the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
TN‑05
In Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, drivers are paying around $3.88 a gallon on average. That is below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
TX‑15
Drivers in Texas’s 15th Congressional District are paying about $3.87 a gallon on average, below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
VA‑01
In Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, gas prices average around $4.08 a gallon, roughly in line with the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
VA‑02
Drivers in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District are paying about $4.00 a gallon on average, slightly below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
VA‑05
In Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, drivers are paying around $4.05 a gallon on average, just under the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
WI‑01
Drivers in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District are paying about $3.82 a gallon on average, below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
WI‑03
In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, gas prices average around $3.49 a gallon, significantly below the national average, according to AAA figures as of April 2.
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