10
Loading video...
By Hugh Cameron
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
The Republican Party is pouring billions of dollars into campaign ads in the final stretch of the midterms, as the GOP grapples with the prospect of major losses in both the House and Senate.
Republicans spent $1.9 billion on ads in October, said the firm AdImpact—equivalent to over $60 million each day. Alongside the $1.76 billion spent by Democrats and $350 million from independents, this brings the total for the month to a record $4.01 billion, up from $3.83 billion in 2024 despite the latter including a presidential election.
AdImpact has reported that this election cycle is the most expensive in the country’s history, with $11.2 billion already put into aired and future reservations and forecasts of a record $11.6 billion. The significant spending figures have been taken as proof that both parties view the contest as crucial, that more races than usual appear competitive, and that the parties harbor insecurities about certain candidates’ chances.
Read More on News
And the latest figures from AdImpact come as polls continue to show Republicans on the cusp of significant losses and the potential surrender of their majorities in both chambers.
Where Is the Money Coming From?
As well as the campaigns themselves, past analysis has identified a handful of individuals and super PACs that make up a sizable portion of midterm ad spending.
On the Republican side, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) had contributed over $460 million toward candidates in battleground races as of mid-October, according to figures from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Much of this was devoted to attack ads on the opposition.
...
This was boosted by a record fundraising push and a massive cash injection from Elon Musk, whose own America PAC had raised $216 million and spent $172 million during the cycle between January 1, 2025, and October 14, 2026. The New York Times said on Monday that total spending by Musk during 2025 and 2026 has reached $474 million. Other megadonors include No Going Back, President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC and One Nation.
Among pro-Democrat groups and figures, meanwhile, both Majority Forward and entities linked to the billionaire financier George Soros have poured over $100 million into campaigns. This is according to analysis by Al Jazeera and the New York Times.
Where Is the Money Going?
By region, AdImpact has found that much of this spending has been flowing into Senate races in this year’s battlegrounds. Figures shared with Newsweek in mid-October revealed that over $500 million had been spent on the Texas contest between Democratic candidate James Talarico and Ken Paxton, the state’s Republican attorney general.
And FEC filings analyzed by Newsweek show that, at over $200 million, more has been spent directly opposing Talarico than any other candidate. He is followed by Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan at $168.5 million and $127.8 million, respectively.
But USA Today analysis of AdImpact data up to October 28 reveals that, when adjusting for population, Maine is this year’s costliest contest. With close to $218 million in broadcast ad spend, this means the campaigns could have given $160 to every Mainer in the state.
By topic, economic issues have been critical this cycle—reflecting the extent to which voters are singling these out as an election priority in polls.
AdImpact figures analyzed and shared with Newsweek by the climate-focused advocacy group Climate Power found that over $191 million had been spent on political ads specifically referencing utility and energy bills in the first nine months of 2026; this includes more than $138 million in the third quarter alone.
AdImpact data cited by Axios also revealed that $173 million has been spent on ads discussing data centers with $140 million from Democrats, $28 million from Republicans and $5 million from independents.
But in late October, the firm said that there had been a near-complete collapse in the number of Republican ads which mention Trump. This sharp decline from earlier in the year coincided with the president’s weakening job approval and amid other signs that Republican candidates—particularly those locked in tight races—were attempting to put daylight between themselves and the administration.
An investigation by Newsweek in September found that several Republican candidates in toss-up races had removed images of and references to Trump from their websites while increasingly emphasizing affordability and the cost of living.
...
"It’s knowing your audience,” the former White House spokesperson Pete Seat, who served in George W. Bush's administration, told Newsweek at the time.
"Television ads are seen by Republicans, Democrats, and Independents,” he said. "Why alienate a sizable chunk of the electorate when you don’t have to?”
And "affordability” has emerged as the primary topic in political ads this year,. Over $800 million was spent in total by Democrats ($401 million), Republicans ($311 million) and Independents ($89 million) according to Politico analysis of AdImpact data.
‘Long Night’ for GOP
Polling averages show that Tuesday is shaping up to be, in the words of the statistician Nate Silver, a "long night” for Trump’s party. Election simulations from RacetotheWH give Democrats a 96.2 percent chance in the House and an 81.2 chance of securing a majority in the Senate as of Tuesday morning, with 237 and 53 projected seats, respectively.
The latest congressional generic ballot from AtlasIntel—fielded October 28 to November 1 among 3,566 American adults—had Democrats leading 55.5 percent to 41.4 percent, with 2.3 percent unsure and 0.8 percent saying they would not be voting.
Monday also saw the release of the final New York Times/Siena College poll for this year’s most crucial Senate races, with Democrats holding an edge—ranging from one to 11 percent—in all seven.
"They might be wrong again, but it’s getting hard to deny that polls point toward a really big year for Democrats," Silver wrote in a blog posted to his website on Sunday.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and James Debens
Register for our November 10 discussion, 'Newsweek Webinar: How the Politics of AI Could Shape Midterms,' which will examine how AI policy played in key races, data centers, lobbying and the political lines that emerged.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines