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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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The Republican Party is no longer at risk of losing control of House if the results of upcoming special elections all go against them, but Democrats could still pile on pressure on the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The perilous position of the GOP's majority in the House of Representatives was highlighted Thursday when President Donald Trump announced he would be pulling New York Representative Elise Stefanik's nomination to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Trump said on Truth Social that he is no longer asking Stefanik to join his Cabinet, as it is "essential that we maintain EVERY Republican seat in Congress."
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House Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that "it is well known Republicans have a razor-thin House majority" and Stefanik staying in Congress will allow the GOP to "keep one of the toughest, most resolute members of our Conference in place to help drive forward President Trump's America First policies."
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The Republican Party currently holds a 218-213 seat majority in the House with four seats currently vacated. This means, when everyone present, the GOP can only afford having two lawmakers vote against a bill for it to pass, presuming all Democrats vote against.
Had Stefanik vacated her seat to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, it would have triggered a special election in New York. This would have been the fifth congressional special election to take place in the U.S. this year, with three confirmed in Florida and Arizona, and one to be announced in Texas.
This would have given the Democrats a long-shot hope of flipping the House with victories in all five races. However, the odds were always stacked against them, with the New York and Florida districts in strong Republican-friendly areas.
The best the Democratic Party can hope for is winning the four remaining special elections. This would leave the GOP in control of the lower chamber with a 218-217 majority, meaning they would not be able to afford any Republican defection on bills going forward.
It is more likely the GOP candidates will win the two special elections in Florida, with Democrats retaining the seats in Arizona and Texas. This would give the GOP a 220-215 majority in the House, giving their majority more breathing room.
"It will be harder for Dems to flip the House in 2026 than it has been for minority parties to win majorities in previous midterms because gerrymandering has become so pervasive that very few marginal districts exist," Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, told Newsweek. "However, if Republicans struggle in the special elections, it is a signal—but not a guarantee—that the GOP may lose the House."
"Moreover, if the GOP performs poorly in special elections, it might prompt President Donald Trump to back off from some of his more controversial policies. On the other hand, if each party wins seats it has previously held and there is no significant change in party voting, that will be interpreted as showing no widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration and its policies."
Upcoming Special Elections
Florida's 1st District - April 1
The congressional district was previously held by Matt Gaetz, who left when he was originally tapped to be Trump's pick for attorney general.
Wednesday's election will be between the Republican candidate, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, and Democratic hopeful Gay Valimont. Patronis is expected to win back the seat for the GOP, despite his campaign being heavily outspent by Valimont's. Gaetz won reelection in November 2024 with 66 percent of the vote.
Florida's 6th District - April 1
On the same day, a special election will take place in Florida, which has caused more concern for the GOP despite also being in a strong Republican-friendly area.
The 6th District was previously held by Michael Waltz, who resigned to become Trump's national security adviser. Waltz won reelection in November 2024 by 33 points. Trump-endorsed Republican Florida State Senator Randy Fine going against Democrat Josh Weil for the seat.
Republican figures, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and North Carolina Representative Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, have expressed concern about Fine's campaign.
A Florida Politics poll released Wednesday of 403 likely voters showed Fine with a 4-point lead over Weil (48 percent to 44 percent)—within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.
Bryan Piligra, a spokesperson for Fine's campaign, previously told Newsweek that the Republican will be "victorious" at the special election. "When Randy is victorious on April 1, it will be because of the strength of the Trump agenda and the faith the American people have in him," Piligra said. "Randy is grateful for the President's unwavering confidence in him."
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said they are "fully mobilized" to flip the two districts in next week's special elections.
"Randy Fine thought he could cruise to victory as Trump's hand-picked candidate and walk into office without a fight. Not on our watch," Fried told Newsweek. "We will continue to support both campaigns to chase down every last vote."
Arizona's 7th District - September 23
Longtime Democratic Representative Raúl Grijalva died on March 13 at age 77, almost a year after announcing he had been diagnosed with cancer. Grijalva's death has triggered a special election in one of the most Democratic districts in Arizona for September 23.
Grijalva's daughter, Adelita, who currently serves on the Pima County Board of Supervisors, is expected to announce her candidacy in the July Democratic primary. Former state Representative Daniel Hernandez has already confirmed his candidacy.
Two Republicans—Jimmy Rodriguez and Raul Verdugo—have announced they are running in the special GOP primary for Arizona's 7th District on July 15.
Texas' 18th District
Democratic Representative Sylvester Turner died on March 5 at age 70. Texas Governor Greg Abbott is to set the date for the special election to fill the vacant seat, which is expected to take place before the end of the year. But according to The Texas Tribune, he has shown no rush to do so, and state law specifies no deadline.
There are to be no party primaries. Instead, all candidates are to run in the special election. If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote, the top two advance to a runoff. Christian Menefee, the outgoing Harris County attorney, and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards are among the Democrats who have announced their intentions to run in the special election.
Turner, a former Houston mayor, was elected with 69 percent of the vote in November 2024.
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