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By Andrew Stanton
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Voter turnout numbers in the first few primaries of the 2026 midterm elections are a concerning sign for Republicans hoping to retain their House and Senate majorities in November.
Why It Matters
Every seat in the U.S. House and nearly one-third of seats in the Senate are up for grabs in the November elections. Democrats are optimistic about their chances. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms; and Democrats hope President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating could sink Republicans in key races.
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Primary turnout is the latest positive sign for the Democratic Party, signaling increased enthusiasm among their voters to turn out at the polls compared to Republicans.
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What To Know
Voters in five states have made their choices in their primaries—Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas. Of those, Democratic turnout has surged in all except Arkansas.
Illinois is the latest state to have its primaries on Tuesday. In the Senate race for retiring Democratic Senator Dick Durbin's seat, Democratic candidates accounted for 69 percent of ballots cast as of Wednesday morning. Votes were still being counted, with 92 percent of the Democratic primary and 95 percent of the Republican primary in as of 9:30 a.m. ET.
For comparison, Vice President Kamala Harris received only 54 percent of the vote in Illinois in the 2024 presidential election.
In the Illinois Senate primary, Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination. She is heavily favored against Republican Don Tracy, who won the GOP’s nomination.
More Democrats than Republicans voted in this year’s primary in North Carolina and Texas, two states Trump won in each of his three presidential bids.
There were 827,742 Democratic votes cast in North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary, and 627,400 in the state’s GOP primary, according to The New York Times. In Texas, there were about 2.31 million votes cast in the Democratic Senate primary and 2.17 million votes cast in the GOP primary.
Both states are expected to have potentially competitive Senate races. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley are headed for what is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the cycle. In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico will face off against either GOP Senator John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton, depending on the May runoff outcome, in a race Democrats hope to at least make competitive.
Even in Mississippi, a solidly conservative state Democrats do not view as a likely target for the midterms, Republicans only narrowly outpaced Democrats in turnout. There were 156,859 votes cast in the GOP Senate primary and 146,496 in the Democratic primary, per the Times. Trump won 60 percent of the vote in the state in 2024.
Arkansas is the exception. There were more than 283,000 votes cast in the GOP primary but less than 131,000 in the Democratic primary. That means only about 32 percent of ballots were cast for a Democratic candidate—a slight drop from Harris’ 33.5 percent in 2024.
Is Primary Voter Turnout Red Flag for Republicans?
Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that turnout during primaries was not historically indicative of what would happen in general elections. However, since 2016, the country has “continued to polarize,” and “something else is going on,” he said.
“I think the primary turnout we’re seeing on the Democratic side is evidence for a relative surge in general Democratic electoral energy, and that corresponds with many of the odd-year general election results we saw. Republicans do not seem to have the same energy,” Reeher said.
Republicans should be “very concerned” about these numbers, Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
“They should have been concerned even before they saw those numbers, of course, given historical trends, because history tells Republicans they should be worried in 2026,” he said. “Given the historically narrow majority, particularly in the House, that Republicans enjoy at the moment, it should be especially concerning.”
Democrats “appear to be particularly enthusiastic about the opportunity to vote in the 2026 midterm” as they try to break Republicans’ unified control of the federal government, he said.
Reeher warned that the energy getting “directed internally as 2028 approaches” could cause trouble in the next presidential race but noted that “all things being equal, more energy is better.”
Republicans must find someone they can be more excited about to solve their energy deficit, he said.
“It won’t be Trump per se—he won’t be on the ballot," Reeher said. "And it’s unclear which of Trump’s initiatives so far are inspiring them. I don’t think they’ll be able to run on the border this time; tax cuts are popular but didn’t help much in 2018; and the wars in the Middle East are splitting the country. Debt and deficit issues have never won an election. For 2026, they need to prepare to take the usual in-party lumps that mid-terms produce, and not let that deflate them.”
What People Are Saying
Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek: “The 2026 midterm election cycle will still be, to some extent, a referendum on Trump's performance, and there are few indications that Trump’s performance is viewed favorably by American voters. And if anything, the opposite appears to be true. His approval rating appears to be historically low and dropping. And if that trend continues, that will create obstacles for Republican victories in November.”
RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft told Newsweek: "After a historic defeat in 2024, Democrats are doubling down on crazy by running a radical group of candidates obsessed with bringing back open borders, Green New Deal policies, and impeaching President Trump. The American people will once again reject their far-left vision and choose President Trump’s commonsense agenda of secure borders, safe communities, and a more prosperous economy."
DNC spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg told Newsweek: “Democrats are organizing and competing everywhere—and that hard work is paying off. Voters are showing up for Democrats in record numbers while Republicans are turning on Trump’s disastrous agenda and staying home. But we’re taking nothing for granted and will keep our foot on the gas to carry this momentum into the midterms, 2028, and beyond."
Jaron Zhou, head of politics at Kalshi, responded to Mississippi turnout data on X: “Dems almost matching GOP turnout in Mississippi. Pretty decent test of raw enthusiasm, given neither party had a super competitive primary.”
Republican strategist Karl Rove, in a Wall Street Journal opinion article: “The historical record suggests it’s a stretch to believe Republicans being outvoted in a primary indicates a Democratic general election statewide victory.”
What Happens Next
In April, the only primary on the calendar is Mississippi runoffs. But primaries will again kick off the following month with Indiana and Ohio primaries on May 5. Turnout in those races will be watched closely to gauge voter enthusiasm.
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