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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans redrew dozens of congressional districts to become more friendly to conservatives ahead of the midterms in hopes of averting losses. But many of those seats are emerging as competitive battlegrounds as the national environment becomes increasingly challenging for the GOP in the final stretch of the campaign.
House districts in Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas became much more conservative in mid-decade redistricting. Many of these previously competitive or Democratic-leaning seats now backed President Donald Trump by double digits under their new lines.
But Republican hopes that these seats would be easy pickups have dimmed. The Cook Political Report’s latest ratings consider many of these seats to be competitive despite their new conservative lean, as Democrats hope to expand the battleground to compete in tougher seats.
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These races have become competitive as Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows in the past few weeks. Democrats have also seen a strong lead in the generic ballot, a gauge of the House popular vote, leading by 8.3 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate as of Monday.
The Cook Political Report has shifted numerous races toward Democrats in the past few weeks and has signaled that they view Democrats as favorites to retake the House. Many of the latest changes come from districts that backed Trump by double digits in 2024.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez wrote in a statement to Newsweek, "House Republicans thought they could ruin the economy, raise the cost of everything, and then rig the maps to save their seats. They’re going to get crushed in November and they have only themselves to blame."
Newsweek also reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email.
Republicans on Defense in These Redrawn Districts
Recent forecasts show that these seats, many of which are drawing significant investment from both major parties, are part of the midterm battleground.
These races are competitive, meaning Republicans could still win, but they have not been easy pickups due to a more favorable environment for Democrats. But even if Democrats do not win, these seats have drawn investments from Republicans that could have otherwise gone to other races in more traditionally competitive seats.
In addition to drawing out Democrats, Republicans also hoped to shore up their own incumbents by putting them in more conservative seats. Most of those changes were modest, and these incumbents are now facing challenging reelection bids.
On the other hand, there are some Democratic-held districts based around Dallas, Texas; Memphis, Tennessee; and Louisiana that became more conservative in redistricting and are not seen as competitive, so Republicans are favored to pick up at least a few seats from the effort.
Alabama
Following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which found Louisiana violated the Fourteenth Amendment's Equal Protection Clause by drawing a second majority-Black congressional district, lawmakers in Alabama redrew the state’s map to place Democratic Representative Shomari Figures in a more conservative district.
His district went from spanning the Black Belt and leaning Democratic to being a double-digit Trump seat based around Montgomery and more conservative southeastern Alabama. But the race is still seen as competitive, with the Cook Political Report classifying the race as Lean Republican.
Florida
Florida’s congressional map changed significantly during redistricting. Several Democrats were placed in more Republican-leaning seats, and purple districts represented by Republicans became more conservative.
The changes followed a political transformation in the Sunshine State, which shifted from a true battleground to a Republican stronghold over the past decade amid an influx of conservative retirees and a rightward shift among Hispanic voters.
Florida’s 13th District, based around Pinellas County, became slightly more conservative in redistricting as GOP Representative Anna Paulina Luna faces a challenge from Democrat Leela Gray. Trump won the seat by 13 points, a slight rightward shift from Trump’s 11 point victory on the current map. It’s seen as Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
Representative Kathy Castor, a Democrat, is among the lawmakers who saw the most significant changes to her district based around Tampa, which lost areas more friendly to Democrats for more conservative suburbs and rural areas. Trump won the seat by 10 points, but it is a toss-up.
Florida’s 22nd, based around South Florida, is another that changed significantly, losing more liberal areas in southeastern Florida. It now spans across the southern part of the state to take in conservative areas near Naples, backing Trump by 10 points. The race between Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar is a toss-up.
Florida’s 25th District was purple under the previous map, only narrowly backing former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Under the new lines, it went to Trump by nine points. Cook gives Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz an edge over Republican Scott Singer, classifying it as Lean Democratic.
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North Carolina
North Carolina Republicans sought to put Democratic Representative Don Davis in a tougher seat that backed Trump by nearly 12 points, compared to roughly three points on the current map. But it’s still considered close, with the Cook Political Report classifying it as a toss-up.
Lawmakers swapped counties between North Carolina’s 1st District, historically a more Democratic district with a high Black population represented by Davis, with North Carolina’s 3rd District, held by GOP Representative Greg Murphy.
That district shifted from giving Trump a 22-point victory in 2024 to a 14-point victory under the new map. It’s rated Likely Republican by Cook.
Ohio
Two Democratic-held seats in Ohio became more conservative. Ohio’s 1st District, held by Democratic Representative Greg Landsman, lost areas around Cincinnati for its conservative suburbs. It went from giving Harris a six-point victory in 2024 to backing Trump by about three points. It’s considered to be Likely Democratic by the Cook Political Report.
Meanwhile, in Ohio’s 9th District, based around Toledo and northwestern Ohio, Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur is facing a toss-up race against Republican Derek Merrin. That district went from backing Trump by seven points to more than 10 points in redistricting.
Two Republicans in purple seats were also given slightly more conservative lines but are facing competitive races. In Ohio’s 10th District, Republican Representative Mike Turner is in a Lean Republican race against Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker. The district went from Trump +6 to Trump +8 in redistricting, according to Inside Elections.
Meanwhile, GOP Representative Mike Carey’s district went from about Trump +9 to Trump +10, according to Inside Elections. It’s considered to be Lean Republican.
Texas
In Texas, the first state to redraw its maps ahead of the midterms, Republican gains could be chilled by a potential reversion back to Democrats among Hispanic voters.
Several South Texas districts were redrawn to become more conservative. That includes two that are held by Democrats, TX-28, held by Representative Henry Cuellar and TX-34, held by Representative Vicente Gonzalez. Cook favors Democrats in both seats, rating TX-28 as Likely Democratic and TX-34 as Lean Democratic.
Meanwhile, TX-35, which has been based around Austin and San Antonio, shifted from a solidly Democratic stronghold to having a more conservative lean, backing Trump by about 10 points under the current map. It’s rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Democrats’ Chances of Flipping House: What Polls Show
Polling has given Democrats an advantage on the generic ballot.
Historically, when the president is unpopular, his party loses seats in the midterms. Such was the case during Trump’s first term in 2018, when Democrats flipped more than 40 House seats.
Democrats have worked to make the race a referendum on Trump’s presidency as his approval slips due to economic anxiety among the electorate centered around high prices and affordability.
The latest poll from YouGov and CBS News gave Democrats an eight-point lead on the generic ballot, 53 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 2,355 likely voters from October 21 to 23, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
The latest polling data from The New York Times and Siena University, conducted among 3,494 likely voters from October 12 to 19, showed Democrats up 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, told Bloomberg News last week he believes Democrats are likely to retake the House.
"In the last 100 years, all off-year elections, whoever is the party in power, has the White House, has lost seats, and it’s only a few seats for the majority," he said. "It won’t be like when Obama was in when we won 63 seats, or when Clinton was in and for the first time in 40 years, Republicans took over. They’ll get a majority. I’m not quite sure how big it is. But they will probably win the majority."
How Have Recent House Elections Gone?
Recent House elections have been close, with 2018 being the most recent "blue wave" year, when Democrats picked up dozens of seats during the midterm of Trump’s first term in office. Democrats believe this year could yield similar results if these critical toss-up races break their way.
Here is a look at how recent elections have gone.
- 2016: Republicans won the House popular vote by about one point and held a 241-194 majority.
- 2018: Democrats won the House popular vote by about 8.6 points and held a 235-199 majority, with a vacancy in one district after the midterms.
- 2020: Democrats won the House popular vote by about 3.1 points and held a 222-213 majority.
- 2022: Republicans won the popular vote by about 2.7 points and held a 222-213 majority.
- 2024: Republicans won the House popular vote by about 2.6 points and held a 220-215 majority.
What Happens Next
With only about one week until November 3, candidates are likely to spend the final days of the campaign making their cases to voters in hopes of winning over undecided voters and motivating their base to head to the polls. Early voting is already underway in many states.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Jason Lemon
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