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By Hugh Cameron
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Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
While less certain than in the House, Democrats’ odds in the Senate appear healthy according to most pollsters and prediction market.
Decision Desk HQ has the party as a narrow favorite with a 57 percent chance of victory. RacetotheWH puts this at 73 percent and projects a majority of 52.5 seats. And Polymarket, which unlike polls show users’ beliefs about eventual outcomes rather than support or voting intentions, gave Democrats a 68 percent shot as of Friday.
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But Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a 53-47 majority—a three-senator buffer that could be strengthened if the GOP picks up a few of the more closely contested seats.
The Defensive Route: Limit Losses
Their current majority—though slim—gives the Republican Party some breathing room even if Democrats campaign successfully, particularly given their simultaneous control of the White House.
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JD Vance would break any 50-50 tie in the chamber, meaning Democrats require a net gain of four seats to secure a majority. Republicans, meanwhile, are able to surrender three and still keep control.
If Democratic candidate Roy Cooper can flip North Carolina—a "likely" possibility according to the Cook Political Report—Republicans can keep their majority by only losing two or more of the battlegrounds, which includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas.
The Offensive Route: Flip Michigan or Minnesota
Picking up one or two seats would significantly improve their overall odds and cancel out a loss elsewhere, and two in particular appear at least competitive for the GOP.
While Abdul El-Sayed continues to lead in most polls, many remain within their respective margins of error and put his Republican opponent, Representative Mike Rogers, within an arm’s length of success.
And while even more of an outside possibility, Republicans are still on their decades-long quest for one of Minnesota’s dependably blue Senate seats.
Last week, NBC News’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki said that there was a small chance the race could go to the GOP. Scandals concerning fraud in the state, Kornacki said, were being seen as "working in [Republicans’] favor."
"There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats," he said on the "Today" show on Wednesday.
However, most polls and prediction markets continue to strongly favor the Democrats in Minnesota, as they do in Georgia—another race Republicans briefly viewed competitive, but from which they are now pulling resources.
Hold the Line: Win the Toss Ups
Republicans boast a number of clear firewalls against the blue Senate wave, including Iowa and Kansas.
The GOP candidate, Representative Ashley Hinson, is currently favored in the former across both polls and prediction markets.
In Kansas, Roger Marshall also holds what—considering polling in recent years has underestimated Republican support—appears a healthy edge over his Democratic rival, Adam Hamilton.
If polls and prediction markets are entirely accurate—as most observers and past elections would say is unlikely—Democrats stand to make serious gains come November third.
But Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, thinks things will become "much harder" for the Democrats should they "lose a seat like Michigan or even Minnesota."
"So many of the states are tossups the GOP could hold the majority with a pickup in Michigan and a win in states like Maine, Texas, Ohio," he told Newsweek.
Should odds sway heavily into one of the three paths, or if the elections produce a coincidence of minimal losses and defeated Democrats in even a handful of races, the GOP will be able to avoid a midterm drubbing.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Trevor Davies
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