...
By Mandy Taheri
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
As Republicans and Democrats select nominees for the midterm elections, updated House ratings from three prominent election forecasters indicate Democrats may be positioned to flip control of the chamber.
All three forecasts show Republicans with more seats currently rated safe or likely for the party. However, if Democrats were to win every race rated as a toss-up in addition to their favored seats, they would narrowly reclaim the House majority with the 218 seats needed for control.
The forecast updates come just five months ahead of the November election.
Read More on Politics
...
What To Know
Republicans currently hold a narrow 217-212 majority in the House, with one independent member and five vacant seats. Democrats point to overperformance in recent special elections and President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings as reasons for optimism heading into the midterms, while Republicans maintain they are well positioned to hold both the House and Senate.
Three forecasters, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all updated their House ratings forecasts this month, showing a tight contest in November. The forecasts differ slightly in the number of seats rated safe, likely or toss-up for each party, but all point to a closely contested battle for control of the House. While Democrats have a path to winning a majority in all the forecasts, the ratings suggest Republicans remain better positioned to retain control of the chamber.
...
Crystal Ball House Ratings
Crystal Ball's updated House ratings identify 16 toss-up districts, including three held by Democrats and 13 held by Republicans. The forecast rates 181 seats as safely Republican and 179 as safely Democratic. Including districts rated likely or lean Republican gives the GOP 213 seats, while Democrats hold 206 seats when likely and lean Democratic districts are included.
In Crystal Ball's ratings, Democrats are favored to flip three Republican-held seats: California's 1st and 41st districts and Utah's 1st District. Republicans, meanwhile, are projected to gain five Democratic-held seats in Texas, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisiana.
Crystal Ball's forecast suggests Democrats could reclaim the House if they hold all seats rated safe, likely or lean Democratic and win at least 12 of the 16 toss-up races.
Cook Political Report House Ratings
The Cook Political Report rates 182 House seats as solid Democratic, with 11 likely Democratic and 12 lean Democratic districts. Republicans hold 191 solid seats, along with 17 likely Republican and five lean Republican districts. That gives Republicans 213 seats and Democrats 205 seats outside the toss-up column.
With 18 toss-up districts remaining, Democrats would need to win at least 13 to secure the 218 seats required for a House majority. Newsweek has reached out to the Cook Political Report for clarification on an extra House seat.
...
Inside Elections House Ratings
Inside Elections’ June 5 ratings show 14 seats as toss-ups, 10 of which are GOP-held and 4 Democratic.
The forecaster rates 189 seats as solid Republican and 181 as solid Democratic. Including likely and lean districts gives Republicans 217 seats and Democrats 204, putting the GOP on the cusp of a House majority before toss-up races are decided.
Democrats would need to sweep all remaining toss-up districts to reach the 218 seats required for control.
Toss-Up Seats
All three of the forecasters include the following 10 seats as toss-ups for November.
- Arizona 1
- Arizona 6
- Colorado 8
- Iowa 1
- Michigan 7
- New Jersey 7
- Pennsylvania 7
- Pennsylvania 10
- Texas 34
- Virginia 2
Crystal Ball also classifies several other seats as toss-ups, including,
- California 22
- Florida 23
- Michigan 10
- Ohio 9
- Wisconsin 3
Both Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report rate the following four seats as toss-ups,
- California 22
- Iowa 3
- Ohio 9
- Wisconsin 3
Inside Elections rates Ohio's 1st District as a toss-up, while the Cook Political Report does the same for Pennsylvania's 8th District.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets currently paint a more favorable picture for Democrats than traditional election forecasters. As of Wednesday, Kalshi gave Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning control of the House, compared with 22 percent for Republicans. Polymarket showed a similar outlook, putting Democrats' odds at 82 percent and Republicans' at 20 percent.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines