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By Anna Commander
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Republican candidate for New Jersey governor, Jack Ciattarelli, is within nine points of tying the Democratic candidate, Representative Mikie Sherrill, in a new poll released on Wednesday.
Why It Matters
The New Jersey gubernatorial race is among the first high-profile tests following Republicans' victory in the 2024 White House election. It is being watched nationally as a potential bellwether for 2026. Both parties view the outcome as an early signal of voter appetite for their agendas.
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What To Know
The Quinnipiac University poll shows Sherrill with 49 percent of the vote compared to Ciattarelli's 41 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Workers Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky both received 1 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,238 likely New Jersey voters from September 11 to September 15, with a 3.9 percent margin of error.
In a head-to-head race, Ciattarelli received 42 percent of the vote compared to Sherrill's 51 percent.
Democrats overwhelmingly back Sherrill while Republicans back Ciattarelli, a former New Jersey assemblyman. Independents are split, with 45 percent supporting Sherrill and 41 percent supporting Ciattarelli in the Quinnipiac results. The poll also found that taxes are the top issue for voters, with 30 percent, followed by ethics in government with 14 percent.
Ciattarelli received a 40 percent favorability rating, compared to a 39 percent unfavorable rating in the poll. Sherrill received a 40 percent favorability rating, compared to a 29 percent unfavorable rating.
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What People Are Saying
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek: "With the Republicans in the 2024 presidential election doing better than in the past in blue states which they lost, we have to see races in these states for governor or the Senate as potentially competitive. Sherill's lead is no better at this stage than you might expect for a Democratic candidate in a blue state. Her support is below 50 percent and the gap could be closed. This confirms that the race is much too early to tell."
Jack Ciattarelli on X this month: "👀🚨NEW TV AD: New Jersey is a mess — and all Mikie Sherrill wants to do is talk about President Trump⁉️ I'm focused on YOU and New Jersey issues:
✅ Lower electricity bills
✅ Cut & cap property taxes
✅ Keep our communities safe
No more excuses. It's time to fix New Jersey — and when I'm Governor, we will."
Representative Mikie Sherill on X this month: "Prices are already skyrocketing, from groceries to utility bills. But as New Jersey families struggle to make ends meet, @Jack4NJ continues to talk about a 10% sales tax. It's unwise. It's irresponsible. It's going to hurt our families."
What Happens Next
With less than two months until Election Day on November 4, campaigns will target persuadable independents and likely scale advertising in New York and Philadelphia media markets.
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