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Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson were projected to win their party’s nominations in Michigan’s Senate and gubernatorial races on Tuesday, setting the contours for some of the most closely watched elections in the 2026 midterms.
El-Sayed, a progressive backed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is set to face off against Republican former Representative Mike Rogers in a true toss-up. Benson, the Michigan secretary of state, is set to compete against Representative John James in the race to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Both races are expected to be competitive. Michigan is a critical battleground roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. It backed President Donald Trump by 2 points in the 2024 election after narrowly backing former President Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats are hopeful about a favorable national environment, fueled by Trump’s declining national approval, but Republicans view the state as among the most competitive for this year’s midterms.
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El-Sayed was projected to win the nomination by NBC and Decision Desk HQ after what became a contentious primary between the party’s progressive and centrist wings. According to the Associated Press, which called the race for El-Sayed at 9:54 a.m. ET Wednesday, he led with 48.5 percent of the vote to Stevens' 47.5 percent with 96 percent of votes counted.
Rogers, who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin, ran unopposed.
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Claiming victory in a post on X, El-Sayed said: "We won. I am so proud to be your Democratic nominee for US Senate. Let's win in November."
In the governor's race, Benson won her primary, securing 83 percent of the vote with 95 percent of ballots counted, while James won with 50 percent of ballots and 99 percent of votes counted.
Reacting to her win on X, Benson told her supporters she was "ready to fight" for their future, while James told voters they have "90 days to defeat socialism."
Newsweek reached out to the El-Sayed and Benson campaigns for comment.
El-Sayed Sends Message to Jewish Voters, Addresses Republican Attacks After Victory
In remarks on Wednesday, El-Sayed addressed concerns about his candidacy from Jewish voters.
“To all of my sisters and brothers of the Jewish faith or any faith at all or no faith at all, I want you to know that my commitment to your safety—my commitment to Jewish safety—is the same commitment that I have to the safety of my own daughters,” he said. “If there is one question of a political philosophy that ought to animate us all is what would we build, what would we do, if we treated all of our kids like they were all of our kids?”
El-Sayed also said Republicans are launching a “bitter” campaign against him.
“They think they want to use my whole name against me. Mike, listen man, If you can't say the name—it's Abdulrahman—keep the name out your damn mouth. I’ll be happy to give you lessons,” he said. “They understand the only way that they think they can win is to drag us into the mud. To believe the worst about each other. To believe that what divides us is bigger than what unites us.”
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Trump Launches Truth Social Attacks on El-Sayed
In a series of Truth Social posts Wednesday morning, Trump criticized El-Sayed in the wake of his victory.
In a post on Truth Social at 9:28 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump said: "Wayne County (Detroit) in Michigan is one of the most corrupt voting areas in the United States, if not the World. It is strictly Third World! Miracles happen in Wayne County, including more votes being cast than there are voters, by a lot. Therefore, the Communist, who is not liked in Detroit, is potentially in 'Vote Counter' trouble. The Radical Left Socialist has a real shot, and don’t discount all of those fake mail-in ballots that will 'surprisingly' show up at the last moment. Get ready for another Rigged Election. In November we must VOTE FOR MIKE ROGERS, and make Michigan TOO BIG TO RIG. God Bless America! President DJT"
At 10:10 a.m., he made another post describing El-Sayed's victory as "great news" for the GOP.
"Great news for the Republican Party. El-Sayed, a Communist loser who hates Jews and Israel, is the projected winner in his race with the Socialist. As usual, the Polls were way off on this one. She was not expected to do nearly as well as she did. Now, the Dumocrats crazy policies will only get worse!" he wrote.
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers: Michigan Senate Race Polls
The latest polling of the Michigan Senate race showed a tight race between El-Sayed and Rogers. A survey from Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA, which surveyed 600 Michiganders from July 24-31, showed Rogers leading El-Sayed by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent.
Meanwhile, a Mitchell Research & Communications poll pointed to a tied race; support for each candidate stood at 45 percent. It surveyed 672 likely voters from July 28-29.
Another recent poll from the Glengariff Group showed Rogers with a larger lead over El-Sayed, 49 percent to 39 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from July 22-24.
The Michigan Senate race is going to be a major test for the political left with El-Sayed on the ticket. Progressive candidates have scored several wins in Democratic primaries so far this cycle, but their wins have been mostly contained to Democratic strongholds like New York City, Philadelphia and Denver.
But Michigan is viewed as more moderate, and El-Sayed’s candidacy will gauge whether swing voters are open to supporting more left-leaning candidates who support policies like Medicare for All in a competitive race.
El-Sayed’s victory is already a major blow to the Democratic establishment, which largely coalesced around Stevens, who represents the suburbs of Detroit and had raised concerns about El-Sayed’s electability in a general election.
His win is also a major blow for Israel. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and affiliated groups spent around $30 million on the primary, according to the Associated Press. Polls have found that Democrats are increasingly opposed to Israel, with favorable views of the Israeli government falling to 16 percent in the latest Pew Research Center poll. El-Sayed was able to tap into that frustration in a state with a notable Arab American population, though AIPAC could still play a role in the general election.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the Michigan Senate race as a toss-up.
If Rogers wins, he would become the first Republican senator from Michigan in decades, following Spencer Abraham, who served a single term from 1995 to 2001.
Stevens Offers 'Full Support' to El-Sayed After Contentious Primary
Stevens wrote in a post on X after the race was called that she is offering her “full support” to El-Sayed to defeat Rogers in November.
“I love Michigan and am so proud to have put up my hand to serve. I spoke with Abdul a few moments ago to offer him my full support as we work to defeat Mike Rogers this November,” she wrote.
Other Democrats were also quick to rally behind El-Sayed. Governor Gretchen Whitmer said in a video statement that he has her support, saying that Democrats are "united by our shared goal" of "getting things done for the people in Michigan."
Slotkin offered her congratulations on X, writing: "There is nothing more important than the mission of the next 90 days: uniting, keeping this seat blue, flipping the House and Senate, and providing a real check on President Trump."
The primary between El-Sayed and Stevens grew increasingly contentious over the weeks leading up to Election Day.
The two candidates had stark policy differences on a range of issues; Israel became one of the largest divides in the race, with El-Sayed being a vocal Israel critic while Stevens supported aid for Israel. It’s a complex line for any candidate to walk in Michigan, a state with a large Jewish and Arab American population.
Many Democrats believe former Vice President Kamala Harris lost votes in the state, particularly around Dearborn, because of her support for Israel.
El-Sayed and Stevens traded jabs in the final days of the campaign, with El-Sayed describing Stevens as “the least capable candidate in America” during an interview.
Stevens, in response, criticized him in a post to X: “Abdul, we were both on the ballot in 2018. I was capable of winning my competitive primary and general election. You lost. You lost by over twenty points to Gretchen Whitmer and you will lose to Mike Rogers by talking like this. Everyone in America understands you want to blame all of your problems on Jewish Americans,” she wrote.
She added that El-Sayed would “just be a celebrity whining and writing books to get even richer” and is “part of the complainer class.”
In a later post, she wrote that Republicans were boosting El-Sayed “because they know they can beat him in the general election.”
El-Sayed, however, has pushed back on those concerns. He told CBS News it is “funny” that people believe Michigan votes for moderates when it backed Trump twice.
"It may just be that the better explanation is not that the state wants moderates: It's that it's so sick and tired of the establishment bought off by corporations on both sides of the political aisle that it was willing to hold its nose and vote for Donald Trump twice,” he said.
Now, El-Sayed is tasked with uniting the party heading into one of the most contested elections this year—a task that could be made more difficult by the divisive primary.
Representative Hillary Scholten, who represents a district based around Grand Rapids, told Semafor in July that she would “not stand beside someone who has allowed distinctly anti-American sentiment to enter our public dialogue.”
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Jocelyn Benson vs. John James: Michigan Governor Race Polls
On the other hand, forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball give Benson a slight advantage in the governor race, rating it as Lean Democratic. Sabato’s moved it from a toss-up earlier in July, pointing to former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ending his independent bid and Benson's ability to consolidate the field.
Polling has also shown Benson in the lead.
The EPIC-MRA poll showed Benson with a 9-point lead over James, 47 percent to 38 percent, while she had a more modest 2-point lead in the Mitchell Research & Communication poll, 46 percent to 44 percent. The Glengariff poll showed Benson up 5 points over James, 44 percent to 39 percent.
While Democrats have been on a winning streak in Senate races for decades, the two parties have switched control of the governorship. Prior to Whitmer’s 2018 election, Republican Rick Snyder led the state from 2011 through 2018.
El-Sayed's Chances Slip in Prediction Markets
El-Sayed's chances of winning the general election fell in prediction markets Wednesday morning. On Kalshi, he had a 62 percent chance of winning as of Wednesday morning; one week earlier, Democrats had a 70 percent chance of winning the race on the platform. On Polymarket, Democrats had a 59 percent chance of winning, down from 70 percent one week earlier.
Benson, meanwhile, is favored in the governor's race, holding an 85 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and an 84 percent chance on Polymarket as of Wednesday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
How Michigan Became Key Battleground
Michigan has become an electoral battleground over the past decade.
Former President Barack Obama easily won the state twice, by more than 16 points in 2008 and by just under 10 points in 2012. But Trump flipped it in 2016, carrying it by less than half a percentage point.
Trump made gains across the state because of his strong showing among white voters in rural areas who backed Obama. He lost ground in the suburbs around Detroit and parts of Western Michigan around cities like Grand Rapids, but rural gains made up for it. Democrats struggled to win back those rural voters in significant numbers in recent cycles but continued to make gains in the suburbs.
Michigan flipped back to Democrats in 2020, when Biden carried it by just under 2 points. But Trump won it again in 2024 by about 1.4 points—the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
At the same time, Slotkin won an open seat by less than half a percentage point in 2024.
Michigan Senate Race Is a Must-Win for Democrats
Democrats are facing an uphill battle to win control of the Senate this year, even with a boost from the national environment. If Republicans flip the seat in Michigan, that would severely complicate Democrats’ path to victory in November.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control if they win every race in a seat they currently hold.
Democrats are defending a seat in another Trump-won state, Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection. Democrats also view GOP-held states in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024, and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points, as top flip opportunities.
But there are no other Senate races in Harris-won or single-digit Trump states, meaning Democrats have to expand the Senate battleground and compete in more conservative areas if they want to win the majority. They are targeting GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential states to flip.
The Cook Political Report classifies races in Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio as tossups.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Sam Wilson, Tobias Meyjes, Dave Siminoff.
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