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By Jenni Fink
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Curt Mills, the executive editor of The American Conservative, is nervous about how President Donald Trump is polling with young men, calling it a "stake in the heart" of what the president is supposed to be about.
The Context
Male voters played an outsized role in Trump’s 2024 election victory, helping Republicans overcome a persistent gender gap that has favored Democrats in recent cycles.
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More than half of men under 30 backed Trump in the last election, while he also carried men overall by a double‑digit margin—support that proved critical in swing states. Because women continue to lean heavily Democratic, Republicans rely on strong margins among men to remain competitive, a dynamic that makes recent polling showing Trump losing ground with younger male voters concerning for the GOP ahead of this year's midterms.
What To Know
Mills told Megyn Kelly on her podcast, The Megyn Kelly Show, Trump shouldn't exclusively focus on the concerns of men under 45 years old, but it is a significant portion of his base so the president also can't ignore what's important to them.
"It's a stake in the heart of what Trump is supposed to be about...I think it reveals how radical the war contingent actually is. It's basically older Americans, older conservatives, who, again, supported a lot of these mistaken wars in the 2000s and in the past," Mills said.
Kelly agreed the polling was "no bueno" for Trump and said Republicans need to think about how the Iran war is impacting affordability because it will impact their ability to win in the midterms and potentially in 2028. Kelly warned if Republicans don't pay attention to those issues there will be a "blood bath" in future elections.
During Wednesday's episode of The Megyn Kelly Show, Kelly pointed to fresh polling analysis from CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten, who said Trump’s approval among men has swung sharply negative since November, with the steepest declines among men under 45 and men under 25. Kelly argued the numbers pose a serious political risk for Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms.
"Trump won in 2024 because of men. They are abandoning him right now," Enten said on Tuesday.
According to CNN’s analysis of multiple national polls, Trump won male voters by 13 points in the 2024 presidential election. That advantage has since flipped. Enten said Trump is now seven points underwater in net approval among men overall—a roughly 20‑point swing in just over a year.
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The movement is even more pronounced among younger men. Enten reported that Trump carried men under the age of 45 by five points in 2024 but now holds a net approval rating of -9 with that group. Men under 25 show a similar collapse, shifting from backing Trump in the election to registering a net approval of minus 19 in recent polling.
Reacting to the data, Kelly said the figures suggest “the coalition Trump relied on is no longer as solid as it looked on Election Day,” warning sustained losses among young men could reverberate across battleground districts in the midterms.
"I would not be sitting pretty and sanguine in the White House that Trump is commanding a majority of Republican supporters on any given issue," Mills said. "And I would not be overconfident if I was President Trump's political advisers."
The CNN analysis cited by Kelly aligns with broader national polling. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found Trump’s overall approval rating slipping to the mid‑30s, with particularly low marks on economic stewardship and the cost-of-living. Only about a quarter of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and household expenses, according to the poll.
Other surveys from CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and Quinnipiac University have similarly shown rising disapproval among men over the past year, reinforcing the idea that Trump’s male advantage has narrowed or, in some cases, reversed.
Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek: "The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics."
Kelly noted on Wednesday that while Trump’s core MAGA base remains largely intact and suggested on previous shows there's not much Trump could do to lose those loyalists. However, she reiterated Republicans can't win elections with just hardcore MAGA voters and need softer Republicans and independents.
"You cannot win an election with 69 percent of independents and 25 percent of Republicans opposing you," Kelly said.
Exit polls and post-2024 election analysis showed Trump improving significantly with Gen Z and millennial men, aided by outreach through podcasts, online influencers, and a campaign message focused on economic discontent.
Kelly framed the polling shift as an early warning rather than a final verdict, noting public opinion can change quickly in response to economic conditions. However, she cautioned that rising prices—particularly gas and food costs—tend to have a lasting political impact if not reversed.
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