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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans could win the New York gubernatorial office for the first time in decades, according to a new poll that found GOP Representative Elise Stefanik with a lead over Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado.
Sarafina Chitika, a Hochul campaign spokesperson, responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
“You’ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik: when her own polls don't reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors – like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer – to repeat her lies," she said. "Unfortunately for her, New Yorkers aren’t interested in letting an unhinged Trump enabler anywhere near the Governor’s mansion.”
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Why It Matters
New York is viewed as a reliably Democratic state. The liberal bastion of New York City, as well as other areas like Albany, Buffalo and Rochester, have kept it in the blue column for decades in most federal races.
But Republicans have made some inroads with some Empire State voters recently. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received less than 56 percent of the vote in New York last year, the weakest performance for a Democrat in decades. Next year’s gubernatorial race will be a key test of whether that was a potential signal that the state could be shifting toward competitiveness over the long run.
What To Know
Hochul, who won her election in 2022 by a smaller-than-expected margin, is running for reelection next November. She is facing a primary challenge from Delgado, though early polling suggests she has an advantage among Democratic voters.
On the Republican side, Stefanik, who represents a northern New York congressional district, is considered a potential candidate. She has staked out a more moderate position on some issues throughout her career, but has also remained a steadfast supporter of President Donald Trump. She would be viewed as a top recruit for Republicans hoping to make the race competitive.
A new poll released Tuesday by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, found Stefanik leading Hochul by one point (43 percent to 42 percent) and Delgado by six points (43 percent to 37 percent).
The poll surveyed 600 New York City voters and 300 New York State voters, weighted to account for population, from October 22 to October 26, 2025. It had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
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Shawn Donahue, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, told Newsweek that the poll should be taken “with a grain of salt” as it is not independent.
“Democrats maintain a very strong enrollment edge in New York, but Trump came considerably closer in 2024 than any Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004. Stefanik would be an interesting candidate in that she would be able to raise a lot of money given her connections to President Trump, but also, this would be likely a negative given that he still did lose New York and polls have showed him underwater,” Donahue said.
Stefanik would likely cast her candidacy as a balance in Albany, which has been under Democratic control for years, he said. Hochul’s approval numbers have been “mediocre” over her tenure but have improved lately, he said.
Harvey Schantz, a professor of political science at the State University of New York, Plattsburgh, told Newsweek the gubernatorial race “promises to be very competitive as it follows closer than expected statewide Democratic margins for governor in 2022 and president in 2024."
“Competitive statewide showings have increased energy and expectations among Republicans and their allies,” he said.
Stefanik would be a “strong candidate” because she could unite Republicans and appeal to unaffiliated voters, he said.
In a press release, the New York Democratic Party referred to the new poll as "another baked partisan poll."
Other polling has shown Hochul with a lead, but some surveys have suggested it could be a close race.
A Siena College poll of 802 likely voters from September 8 to September 10, 2025, showed Hochul up by 25 points (52 percent to 27 percent), with 17 percent undecided. It had a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points.
A GrayHouse poll found Hochul leading Stefanik by five points on an initial ballot (48 percent to 43 percent), but Stefanik led on an informed ballot (46.4 percent to 45.9 percent). It surveyed 1,2550 New York likely voters from September 20 to September 26, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
The New York Democratic Party has filed a complaint arguing that New York state law requires her to release the full details of the poll, The Times Union reported. Stefanik's attorney argued that the law applies to state candidates, but not federal officeholders.
Democrats have controlled the New York governorship for decades. Governor George Pataki was the last Republican to hold the office, serving from 1995 to 2006.
What People Are Saying
Steven Ileka, Delgado’s press secretary, told Newsweek: “This poll tells a pretty clear story: Voters know and reject Governor Hochul. The Governor has spent millions to end up stuck below 50 percent. Antonio Delgado is focused on bringing people together, building coalitions, and meeting New Yorkers where they are and is already within striking distance, despite the fact that New Yorkers are just coming to get to know him. Voters want new leadership. And Antonio is ready to provide it.”
Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik, wrote in a press release: “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate (and in this case, the likely nominee) is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.
"In a decision that she will come to regret, Kathy Hochul lives up to her title as the Worst Governor in America when she chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the Defund the Police, tax hiking, raging Antisemite Socialist Zohran Mamdani who will destroy New York.”
Journalist Alex Gault wrote on X: “The Manhattan Institute, which crafted this poll, is a known conservative thinktank. Notable that while two Republican-linked orgs show Stefanik ahead, the really independent pollster SCRI shows a completely different reality.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters still give Hochul an advantage—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Democratic. Stefanik has not formally said she plans to run. WPTZ, an NBC affiliate serving the Burlington, Vermont, and Plattsburgh, New York, areas, reported that she will announce her plans after the November elections.
Update 10/29/25, 1:14 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Shawn Donahue, Steven Ileka and Harvey Schantz.
Update 10/29/25, 3:14 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Hochul's campaign and additional information.
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