...
By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Republicans face an uphill battle to flip the gubernatorial seat of Minnesota despite Democratic Governor Tim Walz’s decision not to seek reelection, according to a leading prediction market.
Newsweek contacted Governor Walz’s office via email for comment outside of regular business hours.
Why It Matters
Walz’s abrupt exit from the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial race—amid an alleged multibillion-dollar fraud scandal—has thrown one of the nation’s reliably blue states into political uncertainty for the first time in nearly two decades. The outcome of the 2026 governor's race holds implications for state governance and national party strategies ahead of the midterm elections.
Read More on Politics
...
What To Know
Walz, a former U.S. representative and running mate of Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, announced he will not seek a third term in office, citing his inability to balance an election campaign with leading the state through an unfolding fraud crisis.
He said in a statement this week: "As I reflected on this moment with my family and my team over the holidays, I came to the conclusion that I can’t give a political campaign my all.
"Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences."
According to the prediction market Polymarket, the Republican Party holds just a 16 percent implied probability of flipping the Minnesota governor’s office, with the Democratic candidate favored by 84 percent.
It means the Democrats are still strong favorites to win the election, which is set to take place on November 3 this year.
Polymarket is an online platform where people make bets on real-world events—like elections, sports, or economic trends.
People buy and sell shares for each possible candidate. The price of a share reflects the market’s belief about that candidate’s chances of winning.
You use a digital dollar (USDC) to buy shares in possible outcomes. If your prediction is right, your share is worth $1; if wrong, it’s worth $0. The platform shows what most people think will happen by turning these bets into probabilities.
The alleged fraud in Minnesota involved state-funded programs, including bogus nonprofits accused of misappropriating taxpayer funds.
Prosecutors say fraud spanning Minnesota‑run programs—including nonprofit and provider billing scams—has already produced dozens of convictions.
In July 2025, then‑acting U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson estimated losses could exceed $1 billion, later suggesting up to half of $18 billion billed since 2018 may be fraudulent (an upper‑bound approaching $9 billion), though state officials dispute that figure pending ongoing audits.
With Walz out, attention has shifted to high-profile Democratic figures. Senator Amy Klobuchar is widely expected to announce her candidacy, though she has not formally declared, while other potential contenders include Attorney General Keith Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon.
On the Republican side, candidates include House Speaker Lisa Demuth, State Representative Kristin Robbins, businessman Kendall Qualls, MyPillow CEO and Donald Trump loyalist Mike Lindell, attorney Chris Madel, and former Minnesota GOP Chair David Hann, according to WCCO Radio. Minnesota has not elected a Republican governor since Tim Pawlenty's reelection in 2006.
What People Are Saying
Tim Walz said in his statement: "Republicans are playing politics with the future of our state. And it’s shameful. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: We welcome ideas from anyone, in any party, who wants to help us continue to stay ahead of the criminals."
Kristin Robbins, a Republican gubernatorial candidate and chair of the House Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Policy committee, said: "Tim Walz and his staggering fraud could not outrun our investigations and the momentum we have in this race. He knows he will lose in November, and would rather give up than take responsibility. Anyone Walz handpicks to run for governor will own the fraud and failures of this administration."
Kendall Qualls, another Republican candidate, said: "It doesn’t matter if the Minnesota Democratic—Farmer—Labor Party (DFL) props up Amy Klobuchar or any other candidate, they share Walz’s record of failure and incompetence. I’m going to spend the next 11 months contrasting Democrat failed policies with a vision of a prosperous Minnesota that only a strong leader and political outsider can deliver. I know because I’ve been doing it my whole life."
DFL Party Chair Richard Carlbom said: "Tim and Gwen Walz have served Minnesota with a deep commitment to servant leadership. We’re grateful for the years Governor Walz has spent in public service delivering for Minnesotans as a public-school teacher, National Guardsman, member of Congress, and as our Governor. We respect his decision not to seek a third term. True to form, he is choosing to spend the remainder of his term focused on governing, improving lives, and standing up for Minnesota."
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said: "Tim Walz is a remarkable leader, and Minnesota has benefited immensely from the compassion he brought to his decades of public service. Tim banished hunger from Minnesota classrooms, signed universal background checks into law, and passed paid family leave.
"He built a record of standing up for people who need it—from the LGBTQ+ community to working-class families to teachers and more. Tim’s legacy is one of putting people first and delivering for Minnesotans in every corner of our state, and that’s a legacy to be damn proud of.
"Tim led Minnesota through some of the greatest challenges faced by any governor in living memory. I have had the privilege of serving Minnesotans alongside Tim for almost 20 years. We were elected to Congress together, and then to statewide office. It has been an honor to call Tim my governor, my colleague, and my friend, and I am extremely grateful for all he has done on behalf of Minnesota."
Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan said: "Since his time as a teacher, Governor Walz has led with decency and compassion. Today’s decision reflects who he has always been—someone who puts Minnesotans first. I am proud to call him a friend and proud of all the work that has been done to make Minnesota the best place to raise a family."
What Happens Next
The Minnesota DFL’s nominating process formally begins with precinct caucuses on February 3, followed by a state convention at the end of May. Republicans face mounting pressure to consolidate behind a candidate early to compete with a potentially unified Democratic ticket led by one of the state’s most recognized politicians.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines