Redistricting wars: Map shows how many seats could change before midterms

Redistricting Map

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Theo Burman

By Theo Burman

Live News Reporter

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With over a dozen states weighing up the idea of redrawing their district boundaries ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Newsweek has mapped out the seats that could change hands if legislatures let fly.

Some of the largest states in the union are currently engaged in a cold war over the House of Representatives, which the Republicans hold with a single-digits majority.

At President Donald Trump's instruction, Texas legislators proposed a rare mid-decade congressional map change in a bid to maintain this hold, with five seats in Democratic areas redrawn into likely Republican gains.

Which States Could be Redistricted?

Texas

Last week, Trump claimed that Republicans were "entitled to five more seats" in the Lone Star state. On Wednesday, GOP state legislators answered the call, proposing a new map that would condense Democratic areas even further. The new boundaries would mean that five blue seats in Texas would be at risk of flipping, endangering Democratic lawmakers in the Rio Grande Valley, where many Latino voters have traditionally backed Democrats.

California

In retaliation, California Governor Gavin Newsom said, "California will not sit by idly and watch this democracy waste away," and threatened to match the Republican gains with redistricting of his own. The seats held by Republicans Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao and Doug LaMalfa in particular were highlighted as the five that would be targeted in the trade-off.

Missouri

Missouri's Republican Governor Mike Kehoe weighed in on Fox News on Tuesday, saying that he was open to the idea of redistricting. His office later confirmed that they "will always consider options" to "provide congressional districts that best represent Missourians." The state only has two Democratic seats, but Representative Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City has been highlighted as a potential target.

Ohio

Ohio is in a unique situation, as it is constitutionally mandated to redraw its map after the one approved in 2022 was struck down, because it was passed by a state commission without bipartisan support. Currently, Republicans hold 10 congressional districts while Democrats hold five, but a replacement map could take up to three more safe Democratic seats and make them lean red.

Wisconsin

Democrats in Wisconsin are eyeing the seats of Republicans Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil, with a redrawing that would give Democrats a shot at two more votes in the House of Representatives. The redraw was proposed in a lawsuit to the Wisconsin Supreme Court that argued the current setup is gerrymandered to benefit Republicans.

Indiana

Frank Mrvan, one of just two Democratic representatives in Indiana, could be in danger of losing his seat if the state's Republican leaders fall in line with the White House's demands. Vice President JD Vance visited the state on Thursday to meet with Governor Mike Braun.

Braun and other Republican leaders in the state seemed non-committal to the idea, CNN reported, with former Governor Mitch Daniels telling the network: "I think we have pretty fairly drawn lines now, and I don't see any good reason that they should be tampered with out of cycle."

Maryland

Maryland's Democratic legislators are considering a bill that would trigger redistricting if Texas goes ahead with plans to cut blue seats. Only one of Maryland's eight seats is held by a Republican, but a new map could take that down to zero.

Washington

Washington state lawmakers are in a similar situation, with their ten seats already split 8-2 in favor of Democrats. House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon said that it would take "very creative map drawing to get to 9-1".

Florida

Governor Ron DeSantis has indicated that he is on board with the White House's approach to redistricting, though he has not specified how many seats a redrawn map would target for Republicans. Florida is already operating with a recently redrawn map that DeSantis himself pushed for, which gives the bulk of the state's 28 seats to Republicans.

Louisiana

Louisiana is facing litigation that could change their maps before the 2026 midterms. The 2022 ruling that a second majority-black district, currently held by Democrats, be added to the map is being challenged in a case that could remove one blue seat from the state.

Illinois

JB Pritzker has been one of the most aggressive Democratic governors in his opposition to the Texas redistricting, offering to shelter fleeing Texas legislators in Illinois. When asked by Stephen Colbert on Tuesday if his state could match California's threat to "wipe out" Republican seats, Pritzker replied immediately: "It's possible. And, as I've said, everything's on the table. We've got to fight fire with fire. They've frankly tossed the rulebook out. And they're just acting in an unconstitutional fashion."

New York

Governor Kathy Hochul has made similar threats, saying in a press briefing this week that "I'm tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back. With all due respect to the good government groups, politics is a political process." the redistricting in New York she is backing could see Democrats gain 22 of the state's 26 seats, up from 19 in 2024.

New Jersey

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has not made the same threats as his Democratic colleagues, but said that the topic was "high on the agenda" in his circles. Democrats already have nine of the state's 12 districts, but Republican Tom Kean Jr.'s seat has been targeted as a potential gain if redistricting does occur.