Putin's Top Ally 'Highly Unlikely' to Send Troops to Ukraine: U.K.

Putin Ally Unlikely to Send Troops

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By Zoe Strozewski

Staff Writer

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It is "highly unlikely" that routine training exercises launched this week by Belarus, a top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime, mean that the Eastern European country will send troops into Ukraine, according to the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence on Friday.

On Thursday, a Telegram post from Belarus' Defense Ministry announced that the training drills were meant to practice freeing "territory temporarily occupied by the enemy" and restoring control over border zones. The exercises, which began Thursday and are due to last until September 14, are taking place near the Belarusian city of Brest on the Polish border, as well as around the capital of Minsk and in the northeastern Vitebsk region.

"Although Russia's use of Belarusian territory was instrumental in Russia's failed advance on Kyiv early in the invasion, Belarusian forces have limited offensive capabilities and there is a remote chance that they have deployed forces into Ukraine," the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote in its Friday intelligence update. "It is highly unlikely that these exercises are an indication of preparations for direct Belarusian involvement in the Ukraine war."

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While Putin has faced widespread condemnation for his ongoing war in Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's regime is one of the few to stand by the longtime Russian leader. Lukashenko has not sent troops into Ukraine, but has played a role in the war by allowing Moscow to place troops within and launch airstrikes from its territory. Putin told a bilateral forum in the Belarusian city of Grodno in July that the "unprecedented" sanctions imposed on both Russia and Belarus in response to the invasion of Ukraine were pushing the two countries toward "unification."

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There have been some indications that Putin wants his ally's war involvement to go further. Mark Voyger, a former adviser to the U.S. Army, told the Daily Express in June that there were concerns that Putin was pressuring Belarus to add troops to the Ukraine offensive.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, has made a similar assessment. In its July 11 update, the ISW wrote that Lukashenko was likely "attempting to provide support to Putin's war in Ukraine short of direct Belarusian military intervention in an effort to respond to the pressure Putin is likely putting on him."

Putin Ally Unlikely to Send Troops

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With recent Ukrainian advances on fronts in both the southern Kherson region and the eastern Kharkiv region, as well as purported manpower shortages for Russia, Putin's alleged desire for direct Belarusian aid may be even higher now.

However, the ISW wrote in the July update that "the likelihood of direct Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine remains low due to the effect that might have on the stability and even survival of Lukashenko's regime."

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