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By Andrew Stanton
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Democratic primaries in states like Michigan and Missouri present opportunities for progressives to defeat moderates on Tuesday, as the political left hopes to build on its success in earlier races.
Progressives scored major victories, winning primaries for congressional seats in places like Denver, New York and Philadelphia, as frustration with the Democratic Party boils over. Several incumbent Democrats have lost to more progressive challengers. Tuesday’s primaries will test the appetite for more progressive candidates in more moderate or conservative states in the Midwest.
The progressive wave comes as Democratic voters express disappointment with what they view as the party establishment’s feeble response to President Donald Trump’s second term in office.
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Voters have argued that party leadership has not done enough to push back against his administration. A new poll from YouGov and The Economist found that 73 percent of Democrats believe their elected officials challenge Trump "too little," a major red flag for the party establishment as it works to protect its members from progressive challenges.
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The Michigan Senate primary between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and centrist Haley Stevens has garnered the most attention, as it’s a high-stakes race that could ultimately determine control of the chamber in the November midterm elections. But there are several other House races that could see progressive candidates surge over moderates, one of which is a toss-up for the general.
Other House races that could be major bellwethers for the mood of the electorate are in Michigan’s 7th District, a swing district where progressive William Lawrence is facing off against two more moderate Democrats to challenge GOP Representative Tom Barrett, and Michigan’s 13th District, where Representative Shri Thanedar is facing a challenge from progressive state legislator Donavan McKinney.
In Missouri’s 1st District, Representative Wesley Bell beat out former Representative Cori Bush to win the primary.
Newsweek reached out to each of their campaigns for comment via email.
Michigan’s 7th District: A Key Race in November
In this critical swing district, Lawrence, a co-founder of progressive organization Sunrise Movement, is facing off against two more moderate Democrats: Bridget Brink, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, and Matt Maasdam, a former Navy SEAL and White House official.
The race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the general election, with the Cook Political Report considering it a toss-up. The district backed Trump by only a single point in the 2024 election. Barrett flipped the seat in 2024, when its then-Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, was elected senator.
It’s based around Lansing, a critical base of Democratic support and home to Michigan State University, as well as more rural, conservative parts of central Michigan and some suburban areas near Detroit.
The latest poll of the race, released by Global Strategy Group, showed Lawrence with 38 percent support compared to Maasdam’s 27 percent and Brink’s 19 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters from July 23-26, 2026 and was sponsored by Maasdam’s campaign.
An earlier poll from GQR, sponsored by Brink’s campaign, showed her in the lead with 30 percent, followed by Lawrence at 23 percent and Maasdam at 17 percent. It surveyed 400 likely voters from June 22-27, 2026.
Prediction markets favor Lawrence, with Kalshi giving him a 92 percent chance of victory, followed by Brink’s 7 percent and Maasdam’s 2 percent. On Polymarket, Lawrence had a 93 percent chance of winning, compared to Brink’s 4 percent and Maasdam’s 1 percent.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Lawrence told Newsweek that Michigan voters are “sick and tired of politicians like Tom Barrett who are backed by corporate donors and stand with billionaires over working people.”
“Big money super PACs have spent millions trying to convince people that candidates like me who will take on billionaires and corporations can't win in districts like this. Today, our grassroots movement is going to prove them wrong,” he said.
Brink told Newsweek she has spent her "whole life taking on tough fights from standing up to Putin and Trump as the first female war zone ambassador to fighting breast cancer—and that's exactly why I'm in this race and why I'll never stop fighting for what's right."
"Voters know who they can trust to stand up to Trump and take on a broken Washington full of politicians who do the bidding of corporate special interests while leaving mid-Michigan families behind. Despite over $6 million in dark money flowing into this race, including from the AI data center industry, voters see through these lies and smears and are fed up with this kind of politics," she said.
Michigan’s 13th District: Progressive Challenge in Detroit
Michigan’s 13th District is based in Detroit, the largest city in Michigan. Thanedar, a businessman first elected in 2022, is facing a challenge from Donavan McKinney, a progressive backed by the organization Justice Democrats.
Although progressives have rallied behind McKinney, Thanedar has also built up a fairly progressive record in Congress. McKinney is still seen as the more left-leaning candidate and is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Only one poll of the race has been made public, coming from the progressive organization Data for Progress. It showed Thanedar up four points over McKinney, 46 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 324 likely voters from July 9-15, 2026.
Prediction markets favor McKinney, who had an 88 percent chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday morning.
McKinney told Newsweek on Tuesday he is "super optimistic" about his chances of winning the primary. He said there is a "lot of energy on the ground" and momentum for his campaign in Detroit.
"People feel like they’re being left behind. They don’t feel heard. They don’t feel like their needs are being addressed. That’s all I hear from day in and day out in my district when I’m out knocking doors and out in my community," he said.
A victory over Thanedar would "mean a lot" for the progressive movement sweeping across the country, he said.
"It shows the rest of the country that this movement is about the people, no matter where they live at, no matter what state, no matter what community, no matter what block they live on—that working class champions and the working class vision beat all this corporate, dirty money," he said. "This is about the many versus the money."
Thanedar told Newsweek on Tuesday that voters in the district "just want someone who will fight for them," touting his support for policies like Medicare for All, free childcare and higher education and student loan forgiveness. He also highlighted his efforts to impeach Trump and end qualified immunity for ICE agents.
"So that's the kind of fighter people are looking for and that's what I've been doing in Congress. When ICE announced they bought a warehouse in my district to make it a detention facility, I held a town hall and press conference to oppose the facility," he wrote, while also casting his opponent as an "opportunist" and "ineffective."
Prominent progressives, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib, have endorsed McKinney.
Thanedar has faced criticism over the years from some Democrats, including after he was accused of using taxpayer funds to promote his constituent services on billboards, according to The Detroit News.
Missouri’s 1st District: A Closely Watched Rematch
In St. Louis, Bell and Bush were locked in a rematch of the 2024 race when Bell defeated Bush. Bell is a more moderate Democrat than Bush, who is supported by Sanders and the Justice Democrats group.
Two years ago, the MO-01 race was defined by a wave of outside spending, including massive investment from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s United Democracy Project. Bell, however, focused his attacks on Bush’s vote against former President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill.
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Progressives hoped the tide had shifted in 2026 amid the wave of progressive victories. The Associated Press, however, called the race for Bell at 9:02 p.m. ET Tuesday. As of 11:19 p.m. ET, he had 58.8 percent of the vote compared to Bush's 37.3 percent.
Polling on the district, which is based around St. Louis, is limited. Only one survey, a Bush internal, had been made public. The HIT Strategies poll gave Bell a slight advantage. Bell’s support stood at 44 percent to 40 percent for Bush. Seventeen percent said they were undecided. The poll also found that voters view Bush slightly more favorably than Bell, with 52 percent saying they view Bush positively and 45 percent saying they view Bell favorably.
The poll was conducted among 401 likely Democratic primary voters February 19-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
Prediction markets favored Bell to win the primary. Kalshi gave him a 71 percent chance of winning, while his chances of winning stood at 68 percent on Polymarket, as of Tuesday.
Michigan Senate Race
The Michigan Senate race is set to be the most prominent test for progressives on Tuesday.
The latest polls of the race gave El-Sayed a lead over Stevens.
A survey from Michigan pollster Mitchell Research & Communications, which surveyed 406 likely voters July 28-29, showed El-Sayed up 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent. His support was boosted by a significant lead with young voters, winning 68 percent of those aged 18-29 and 62 percent of those 30-44. Stevens, however, did best with those 65+, winning 50 percent among that age group.
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Abdul El-Sayed Chances Against Haley Stevens: Final Michigan Polls
A Zenith Research poll, first reported by Michigan journalist Sam Robinson, found that El-Sayed led Stevens on an initial ballot, 53 percent to 34 percent. When undecided voters were pushed about who they would support, El-Sayed had an 18-point lead, 59 percent to 41 percent.
It surveyed 536 likely Democratic primary voters from July 26-30, 2026.
An Emerson College poll produced similar results—it showed El-Sayed with a 16-point lead, 57 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 700 likely voters July 26-27, 2026. A Tavern Research poll showed El-Sayed up 11 points, 48 percent to 37 percent. It surveyed 914 likely voters July 26-27.
Michigan backed Trump by fewer than 2 points in 2024 and is one of the most competitive battleground states. If El-Sayed wins the primary, the race would become one of the biggest tests for progressives in November.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon, Robert Greenall, Sam Wilson, Anna Commander.
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