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It’s Presidents Day and, fittingly, the most consequential recent development in American politics involves no president at all. Starting this year, New Mexico will open its party primaries to unaffiliated voters. It's part of a bigger story: independents are surging while party machinery lags behind.
Last year a record 45 percent of Americans identified as political independents, the highest share Gallup has recorded. Of course, many are turning against President Donald Trump. However, away from the Epstein files, immigration enforcement, even the economy, it’s the most durable voter trend of the Trump-Biden-Trump era. For example, in Colorado unaffiliated voters make up roughly half the rolls. It's a reality that collides with the volatile political and media landscape that pits two sides against each other.
Common Knowledge
The right has mixed feelings about these voters. Some say the "independent" label is empty and simply where a collection of grievances coalesce. The left admires independence but worries about it as a governing program. Ezra Klein put the dilemma starkly: “Voters often do not know their preferences until a politician they like tells them what their preferences are.” If neither party speaks concretely to unaffiliated voters on cost-of-living and competence, he says, someone else will.
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Reformers focus on process. More than a dozen states still run fully closed primaries, effectively telling independents to come back in November and decide from what the parties choose to offer.
Most agree that independents are large and consequential, but less engaged than partisans; and many “independents” lean to one side and vote that way. All can be true—explaining why campaigns court independents while governing as if they don't exist.
Uncommon Knowledge
Identification as independent has indeed hit a Gallup record. But Pew’s NPORS reminds us that most independents lean to a party, and those leaners “look much more like partisans” in views and votes than free agents. In practice, many independents behave like under-registered partisans, until the moment they don’t, and that moment swings close races.
What do they actually want? The clearest common ground isn’t ideological but practical: affordability. AP-NORC’s 2026 priorities show roughly seven in 10 Americans naming an economic concern when asked, open-ended, what Washington should tackle first. Immigration has risen in importance, especially among older voters, but still trails overall. Under-30s disproportionately name inflation and housing costs, which is a clear warning sign about the next generation of voters.
Housing
In October 2024, 69 percent of independents told Pew they were “very concerned” about housing costs, a sharp rise in 18 months. If you can't find a comfortable place to live, political dogma doesn't matter.
Immigration
On immigration, independents are more nuanced than slogans allow. Monmouth, on the eve of 2024, found 58 percent of independents supported building a border wall and majorities backed stricter enforcement, yet broad support also persisted for legal status for long-settled undocumented immigrants. Control the border and fix the system, not one or the other.
Abortion
Majorities continue to back legal abortion in all or most cases. PRRI’s 50-state atlas finds support among independents in the high 60s, roughly 71 percent of independent women and 67 percent of independent men, while Pew’s national trend remains near two-thirds overall.
Marijuana
Legalization retains strongly favored. Gallup’s 2025 polling shows about two-thirds of independents support it even as Republican support dipped.
Guns
America is often divided on “gun control” versus “gun rights,” but away from the principles is less divided on specifics: universal background checks remain broadly popular across parties, including among independents, per the 2025 Johns Hopkins National Survey of Gun Policy.
Parties
Americans are unimpressed with both teams. Pew found roughly half of Americans saying each party makes them “angry,” larger majorities reporting “frustration,” and about a quarter saying neither party represents them well. A durable majority also keeps telling Gallup the U.S. needs “a third major party.”
What to Expect
Age sharpens the picture. PRRI reports young men drifting Republican in party identification “but not necessarily more conservative,” while Gallup shows the highest rates of “independent” ID among younger adults. That combination makes Gen Z and younger millennials unusually sensitive to affordability and to cues about competence.
So the near-term forecast is relatively clear. If housing supply loosens in even a handful of expensive metros, volatility among local independents should ebb. Where rents bite, it will spike. The winning message for nonaligned men may be “make starter homes possible again,” and for nonaligned women, “affordability with bodily autonomy.” Expect independents to judge Trump’s second term less on ideology than on basic competence, especially in suburbs where unaffiliated registration is highest. It's not just about Trump. If government stops working properly, independents might not move toward a party, but away from Washington entirely.
The “Trump effect” isn't merely about polarization. He has clarified what the parties offer, arguably a valuable service. What nobody has clarified is what independent voters will accept. In the midterms, that could be a mistake.
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