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By Micah McCartney
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East Asia's four largest economies are threatened with a declining population, threatening their long-term competitiveness.
Reversing this trend through increased births seems unlikely given how the region's fertility rates are trending, University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher Yi Fuxian told Newsweek.
Shrinking, rapidly aging populations like those in this region lead to smaller workforces, higher dependency ratios, and increased pressure on public services and pension systems. East Asia has the lowest fertility rate of any other region, and China (1.0), Japan (1.2), South Korea (0.72), and Taiwan (0.85) all rank near the bottom on a country basis.
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Yi, who spoke on the subject Wednesday at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, pointed to several factors.
These cultures place a strong emphasis on education and, like many high and upper-middle-income economies, have seen delayed marriage and childbirth.
Meanwhile, these countries' high urban population density, leading to expensive housing and high living costs.
Another factor is historical: China's one-child policy, in place from 1980 to 2016, has "altered the Chinese concept of fertility," Yi said.
China ended the one-child policy in 2016 and has made efforts to encourage child-rearing through measures like reduced education fees, improved maternity insurance, housing prioritization, and child care and childbirth subsidies.
Yi said the country is following in the footsteps of Japan, whose efforts to boost births proved both expensive and ineffective. Yet China, which is "getting old before it gets rich," lacks sufficient financial resources to fully follow Japan's path, he said.
China's population declined again in 2023, with more deaths than births for the seventh consecutive year. And the proportion of seniors is projected to more than double by midcentury.
Yi predicts China's fertility rate will struggle to stabilize at around the 0.8-mark. The country's population, reported as the world's second highest at 1.4 billion—he believes the reality is closer to 1.28 billion—could drop below 1.02 billion by 2050 and 310 million by 2100, he said.
Celebrity economist Ren Zeping has called for substantial birth subsidies and extended maternity leave beyond 14 weeks.
South Korea, with the world's lowest fertility rate, has spent over $200 billion on initiatives to support new mothers and larger families, including cash subsidies, infertility treatment, and child care services.
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Some private companies have introduced additional incentives, such as construction giant Booyoung Group offering $75,000 per baby born.
Immigration is another way to spur population growth. Taiwan's population grew by 155,802 last year due to immigration, despite a continuing decline in its crude birthrate.
Newsweek reached out to Chinese and South Korean embassies in the U.S. and the Taiwanese and Japanese health ministries via written requests for comment.
Update 5/20/24 12:00 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with more information for context.
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