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By Anna Commander
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A new poll from UMass Lowell / YouGov released on Thursday shows Vice President JD Vance leading in a potential head-to-head race for president in 2028 over Democratic Governor of California Gavin Newsom.
Why It Matters
Early positioning by potential candidates has carried added weight, as polling since 2025 has suggested close hypothetical contests between Vance and prominent Democrats while highlighting uncertainty within both parties.
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Within the Democratic field, surveys in 2026 showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading prospective primary voters overall in many polls, with Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also drawing measurable support, along with New York U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Newsom and Vance have not formally announced their candidacy, but both have spoken about 2028 in some capacity. Newsom told CBS News Sunday Morning that he will consider it after the 2026 midterms and Vance similarly said his intent is for his party to win midterm elections and then he'd sit down with the president and discuss potentially running.
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What To Know
According to the poll, Vance has 36 percent of the potential vote, compared with Newsom's 33 percent. The survey shows that 12 percent are undecided, and 17 percent say they would not vote.
The poll surveyed 1,000 American adults from March 26 to March 30, 2026, and has a margin of error of 4.05 percent.
The survey also asked respondents about additional head-to-head races, including Vance versus Ocasio-Cortez. In that scenario, Vance landed 36 percent again compared to Ocasio-Cortez's 33 percent. The poll shows that 13 percent are undecided, and 16 percent say they would not vote.
The survey shows that Newsom leads over former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson 33 percent to 25 percent, as does Ocasio-Cortez, with 32 percent compared to Tucker's 25 percent.
What People Are Saying
Trump, in August 2025, during a news conference, when asked if Vance is the MAGA successor: "Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he's the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it's too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he's doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point."
Former adviser to George W. Bush, Scott Jennings, on X in February: "We need to unite as Americans and will this into existence. Kamala Harris 2028." He also added a laughing face emoji to the post.
What Happens Next
Potential candidates typically throw their name into the race after the midterm elections.
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