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The final polls in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race show Democrat Peggy Flanagan ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya, heading into Election Day.
Flanagan is Minnesota's lieutenant governor, while Tafoya is a former NFL sideline reporter. They are competing for the open U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Tina Smith.
Three of the latest surveys put Flanagan's lead between three and seven percentage points. InsiderAdvantage has her ahead 49 percent to 46 percent, KSTP/SurveyUSA gives her a 48-41 lead, and Research Co. puts her ahead 52-47 among decided voters.
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Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale. Coleman subsequently lost his 2008 reelection bid to Democrat Al Franken following one of the closest and most protracted recounts in Senate election history.
The state has since remained in Democratic hands in every Senate election. It makes this year's contest between Flanagan and Tafoya another test of whether Republicans can break a decades-long losing streak in statewide races.
Minnesota has retained a Democratic lean in recent statewide federal elections, but its margins have sometimes been relatively narrow. Smith defeated Republican Jason Lewis by about five points in the 2020 Senate election, while Democrat Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by 4.2 points in the 2024 presidential election.
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What the Polls Show
The InsiderAdvantage survey was conducted October 29-30 among 1,200 likely Minnesota voters using a mixed text and panel methodology. It was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. With Flanagan three points ahead, the candidates' individual margins of error overlap. One percent was undecided, and 4 percent supported another candidate.
Research Co.'s poll was conducted online from October 30 to November 1. Its Minnesota sample included 450 likely voters, and the data were weighted by age and gender using U.S. Census figures.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Among decided voters, Flanagan received 52 percent to Tafoya's 47 percent.
The KSTP/SurveyUSA survey, conducted October 24-28 among 714 likely voters, showed Flanagan at 48 percent and Tafoya at 41 percent, with 7 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. KSTP characterized the contest as remaining within the poll's margin of error.
RealClearPolling's average listed Flanagan at 48.4 percent and Tafoya at 43 percent, a 5.4-point advantage, and rated the race "Leans Dem." Its recent polling list also included a New York Times/Siena survey, conducted October 19-26 among 752 likely voters, that showed Flanagan leading 54 percent to 40 percent with a 4.1-point margin of error.
The final three surveys are therefore broadly consistent on the leader, but not on the size of the lead. InsiderAdvantage's three-point margin is narrower than the RealClearPolling average, Research Co.'s five-point result is close to it, and SurveyUSA's seven-point result is somewhat wider. The Times/Siena result, showing a 14-point advantage, stands noticeably above those other late polls.
Inflation and the cost of living have remained the dominant election concern among Minnesota voters, with 36 percent identifying them as their most important issue in an October KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. When asked specifically what the state's next U.S. senator should prioritize, voters most often chose fighting fraud, Social Security, health care access, and lower taxes.
Larry Jacobs, political scientist at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek: "Polls indicate that the race continues to be close. Flanagan has an edge but undecided voters may matter."
"Voters are casting ballots with an overwhelming concern about inflation, cost of living, and fuel prices (39 percent). This is the primary driver against Trump and GOP. Tafoya's campaign has tried to counteract this by making the race a referendum on fraud. That isn't working (9 percent). With voters casting ballots with affordability at the forefront of their minds, that reinforces Flanagan and doesn't help Tafoya."
"The polling in the race between Peggy Flanagan and Michelle Tafoya is somewhat all over the place, making it difficult to determine what an accurate reading of the race might be. On one level, some polls suggest a very close race. On another, some suggest that Flanagan is pulling away," David Schultz told Newsweek. He is distinguished University professor in the Departments of Political Science, Environmental Studies, and Legal Studies at Hamline University.
Schultz added: "It is important to recognize that Minneapolis and St. Paul, and the counties in which they are located, account for approximately 30 to 31 percent of the statewide vote. Democrats do well when turnout is high in these counties, and early voting suggests that turnout could be very high. However, this could simply reflect the fact that Democrats are more likely to vote early than Republicans.
"This is perhaps the best chance Republicans have had to win a U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota since Norm Coleman defeated Walter Mondale in 2002. It is also among the best opportunities Republicans have had to win a statewide race in approximately 20 years.
"If one looks at the activities of Tafoya and Flanagan, both are charging hard to get their supporters to the polls. This could mean that their internal polling shows a close race," said Schultz. "Alternatively, it could simply mean that both campaigns are going through the motions of an aggressive get-out-the-vote effort in the final 48 hours."
What the Race Means for Control of the Senate
The Minnesota contest is particularly important for Democrats because they are defending an open seat rather than attempting to gain one from Republicans. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a 51-seat majority.
A Tafoya victory would therefore represent an additional Republican pickup Democrats would have to offset elsewhere. A Flanagan victory would keep the Minnesota seat in Democratic hands, allowing the party to concentrate on gains in Republican-held states and defending other Democratic seats.
Outside ratings give Democrats an advantage in Minnesota but do not treat the outcome as certain. RealClearPolitics rates the contest "Leans Dem," while a separate race tracker lists the Cook Political Report rating as Lean Democratic and Sabato's Crystal Ball as Likely Democratic.
The Senate race has also unfolded against an unusually turbulent political backdrop in Minnesota. A series of fraud cases has fueled Republican criticism of Governor Tim Walz’s administration, while Democrats have focused on the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
Minnesota also became the center of a political firestorm over federal immigration enforcement after U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti were shot and killed by federal agents on the streets of Minneapolis in January during Operation Metro Surge. The shootings sparked nationwide protests and intensified scrutiny of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the state and across the nation.
The campaign has also played out amid a federal immigration investigation involving Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar, who has denounced the probe as politically motivated.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and James Debens
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