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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican Michele Tafoya and the federal raid on Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar’s home contributed to Tafoya’s loss against Democrat Peggy Flanagan for a Minnesota U.S. Senate seat, a political science professor told Newsweek.
Flanagan, Minnesota's lieutenant governor under Governor Tim Walz, won the race in Tuesday's midterm elections with 53.7 percent of the vote to Tafoya’s 43.6 percent. Flanagan’s victory came as Democrats flipped many U.S. Senate, House and multiple gubernatorial seats, including in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Ohio. She is the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. Senate.
While Minnesota has been thought of as a safe spot for Democrats, having last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2002, the GOP had its best chance in 20 years at flipping the seat, Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz previously told Newsweek, citing voter concerns with corruption as one of the reasons.
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Schultz told Newsweek on Wednesday that there were two reasons behind Tafoya’s loss: Trump’s late endorsement and the Homeland Security Investigations raid on Omar’s Washington, D.C., home on October 12. Both occurred only weeks before Election Day.
“Tafoya was getting close to Flanagan up until about two-and-a-half weeks ago when the Justice Department did the search of Ilhan Omar’s property,” Schultz said, adding that the raid likely energized Democrats even more.
Schultz also credited Trump’s endorsement, which came in mid-October, as something that “went wrong” for Tafoya with the race. Prior to his endorsement, Tafoya had managed to distance herself from Trump.
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University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs told Newsweek that Democrats securing their Minnesota Senate win was “a function of the backlash against Trump and the high cost of living blamed on him.”
“No other issues broke through,” Jacobs said.
In early October, prior to the Trump endorsement and Omar raid, Tafoya was polling within the margin of error of Flanagan. While a GOP win was “still a longshot,” Schultz said, there was still a chance it could have happened.
“I think a lot of those undecided voters at that point broke against Tafoya as part of broader national trend of really voting against Republicans,” Schultz said of voters’ opinions of Tafoya after the Omar raid, adding that the raid “rekindled” any ill feelings Minnesota voters had about the Trump administration.
What Flanagan, Tafoya Said After the Race
While Flanagan expressed her gratitude to Minnesota voters on Wednesday, Tafoya shared a quote from Wall Street Journal columnist James Freeman on her X page.
“Too many on the left pronounce that our democratic institutions are broken whenever they don’t get the political results they want,” the quote said. “Let’s hope that’s not how Republicans respond to Tuesday’s electoral drubbing. We’re blessed to live in a land where a sturdy Constitution protects our liberties as we freely express our choices by voting. Now it’s the job of all politicians to listen to Tuesday’s message.”
"Minnesota, I am so incredibly grateful for each and every person who supported this campaign," Flanagan posted. "Chi miigwech."
In the indigenous Ojibwe language, chi miigwech translates to thank you very much.
What Happens Next
Before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, lawmakers will return to Washington for the 2026 lame-duck session, the period between Election Day and the start of the next Congress in January. During that time, Republicans will still control any committees they currently hold, giving them the ability to advance legislation, negotiate government funding and confirm nominations despite losing control in the upcoming Congress.
As for Minnesota, Schultz said Republicans will continue to have difficulty winning federal elections “unless they figure out a way of reaching…all those urban and suburban voters” in the Minneapolis and St. Paul metropolitan area.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Skinner and Dave Siminoff.
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