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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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A new poll released this week has given Democrat Peggy Flanagan an impressive lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for Minnesota's Senate seat while other recent polls show a much more competitive race.
Several key Senate races are unfolding this year that will determine control of Congress. Republicans seek to defend their House and Senate majorities and Democrats look to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers in their favor. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and a net gain of three seats to win control of the House.
In Minnesota, recent polling has showed a more competitive race than expected between Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, and Tafoya, a broadcast journalist. This is fueling Republican hopes that the state could deliver the GOP a surprise Senate win for the first time in over 20 years.
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However, the newest New York Times/Siena University poll, widely considered one of the nation's highest-rated surveys, shows Flanagan surging ahead of Tafoya by 14 points. It implies that the race results might not end up being as close as analysts originally thought. The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.1 points.
Newsweek reached out to both Flanagan's and Tafoya's campaigns by email for comment on Wednesday and is awaiting responses.
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Flanagan Far Ahead in Top-Rated Minnesota Poll
The New York Times/Siena University poll surveyed 752 Minnesota voters between October 19 and 26. When asked who they would vote for in the November election, 54 percent of respondents said Flanagan, while only 40 percent said Tafoya.
The poll is an outlier and gives Flanagan her largest lead over Tafoya yet, more than tripling her lead in most other polls.
The economy was top of mind for Minnesota voters surveyed in the poll, with 19 percent of them saying it was the most important factor in deciding which candidate to vote for. However, at 15 percent, concerns about corruption were not far behind.
Controversies have drawn attention to some of Minnesota's highest-profile Democratic politicians. These included a welfare fraud scandal that prompted calls for Democratic Governor Tim Walz's resignation. There was also a federal investigation into Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar's immigration history and a disputed claim that she married her brother to help him enter the United States.
As attention turns to those disputes, Republicans have gained opportunities, and Tafoya's campaign has capitalized on the controversies by linking Flanagan, who is Walz's lieutenant governor, to them.
Nine percent of polltakers said immigration was their greatest concern, 8 percent said cost of living and inflation, and 6 percent said opposition to President Donald Trump. The same poll also found that, at 57 percent, the majority of respondents "strongly disapprove" of Trump's performance as president and 5 percent "somewhat disapprove."
What Other Polls Show
Most other recent polls show Flanagan with a much-narrower lead over Tafoya. For example, an InsiderAdvantage poll that surveyed 1,200 likely voters between September 28 and 29 found Flanagan had only a one-point lead over Tafoya at 46 percent to Tafoya's 45 percent.
A Quantus Insights poll of 720 likely voters between September 8 and 10 gave Flanagan a four-point lead over Tafoya at 48 percent to Tafoya's 44 percent.
Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya: What Prediction Markets Show
In prediction markets, Flanagan is strongly favored among traders. Kalshi traders give Flanagan 90 percent odds of winning, compared to Tafoya at 10 percent. On Polymarket, Flanagan's odds are even greater at 92 percent, compared to Tafoya's 9 percent.
Why Minnesota Senate Race Matters in 2026 Elections
To control the Senate, Democrats need to gain four seats in the midterm election. However, a loss in Minnesota could set them back.
Minnesota had been thought to be a safe spot for Democrats, having last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2002. The state has voted for a Democratic president in every election since 1976. But, in this year's election cycle, Republicans are putting up a fight with Tafoya as their candidate.
"The Republicans have their best shot in 20 years at winning the state," Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz previously told Newsweek. He credited the state's issues with corruption and "Democratic Party fatigue" as reasons why Republicans might secure a win. Schultz added that he would not be surprised if Tafoya won the election.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Skinner and James Debens
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