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By Micah McCartney
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A think tank has released a new platform focusing on how Micronesia, a little-mentioned but strategically placed archipelago in the western Pacific, is becoming a central arena in the U.S.-China great-power competition.
The region—which includes sovereign states such as Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, as well as U.S. territories Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands—is part of what the Pentagon calls the “Second Island Chain.”
This string of islands would, as the name suggests, serve as a second line of defense to contain Chinese forces in the event of a major conflict, lying beyond the First Island Chain that stretches from South Korea down to the Philippines.
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Mapping Militarization
The newly minted Micronesia Security Monitor (MSM), created by the Guam-based Pacific Center for Island Security (PCIS), tracks military activities by Pacific players, including the U.S. and China.
“One gets a sense of the competitive tempo in our region,” said Leland Bettis, a director at PCIS and longtime U.S. resident of Guam, as well as managing director at Mantid Pacific financial services. “As the incoming head of the U.S. Strategic Command noted last month, a contested environment beyond the First Island Chain is anticipated. This is very close to home for us, and we hope to contribute to a greater understanding of the unfolding risks.”
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The app also highlights activities such as a recent uptick in ocean floor mapping by Chinese survey vessels—believed to be gathering intelligence for the People’s Liberation Army—and the ongoing U.S.-South Korea “Silent Shark” anti-submarine warfare exercise.
“The tempo of U.S. bilateral and multilateral exercises in the past year gives a good sense of how seriously U.S. military planners are viewing the battlespace between the Marianas-Palau arc and the Philippines," Bettis told Newsweek. "Similarly, Chinese research vessel activity in just the past 90 days shows significant focus on the same area. These activities reflect efforts to prepare for any hostilities in the region.”
Missile Threats
“You can get a sense of the range of targets in the region. Guam has long been a power projection platform for U.S. forces, including nuclear weapons. You can also see that in the past decade, both China and North Korea have developed intermediate-range missiles that appear purposely built for Guam in case of a conflict,” said Robert Underwood, PCIS chair and a former Guam delegate to the U.S. Congress.
The MSM starkly displays the ranges of American, Chinese, and even North Korean strategic assets that could come into play in wartime. U.S. B-1 and B-21 bombers have the range to reach Chinese and North Korean targets, while North Korea's Hwasong-10 and Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, if not intercepted, could hit the westernmost Micronesian islands.
China’s new scramjet hypersonic missile, the CJ-1000, could reach even further east, potentially covering much of the Marshall Islands if launched from a base in eastern Anhui Province.
These missiles would likely target strategically vital sites such as Guam, where the U.S. has relocated 5,000 Marines from Okinawa and is building a multilayered, enhanced integrated air and missile defense (EIAMD) system to counter such threats. On Tinian island in the Northern Marianas, the U.S. is also reviving a World War II-era runway.
'Ground Zero'
China’s Defense Ministry last year warned Washington against turning Guam into an “outpost to wage wars,” with then-spokesperson Wu Qian saying, “It would not be secure even if it were armed to the teeth.”
Greenwood told Newsweek that U.S. militarization has made the islands more vulnerable than anywhere else on U.S.-controlled soil, and locals feel less secure. “The U.S. treats economic and diplomatic competition with China as an arms race, and we are ground zero for the utilization of those arms. It is also clear that the U.S. has made no provisions for civilian protection and food resilience for any contingency,” he said.
Greenwood also lamented that in its focus on security, the U.S. has overlooked economic development, even as Chinese investment and tourism prospects rise—though these are “weighed cautiously throughout the region.” Still, he added, lack of U.S.-driven development “provides opportunities for China to increase its influence in the region.”
U.S. and Chinese Perspectives
A Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek that the U.S. considers Guam and the Micronesian region “essential to maintaining a stable, secure, and free Indo-Pacific.” The official said, “We continue to work closely with partners there to strengthen cooperation, improve infrastructure and logistics, and enhance maritime domain awareness. Our focus remains on supporting our partners’ sovereignty and ensuring the region remains peaceful, resilient, and free from coercion.”
Beijing continues to dismiss the rationale behind U.S. militarization in the region. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told Newsweek: “The U.S.' long-standing hype about the ‘China threat’ is nothing more than an excuse to maintain its military hegemony.” He stressed that Beijing is committed to peace, stability, and progress, while safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial security.
“We urge the U.S. to view China’s strategic intentions and defense development objectively and rationally, stop making such irresponsible remarks, and take concrete actions to maintain the stability of relations between the two countries and their militaries,” he added.
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