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By Joe Edwards
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The Old Farmer’s Almanac has outlined how a strengthening and potentially historic El Niño could influence weather across the country during the upcoming winter.
The historic publication explained how unusually warm Pacific waters can alter the jet stream—a narrow band of wind in the atmosphere—and the storms it steers, while cautioning that even a powerful El Niño does not guarantee its typical effects in every region.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific.
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It can influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide. In the United States, typical effects of El Niño can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a Thursday update that the ongoing event—which has already smashed benchmarks—had continued to strengthen, with a "strong-to-very strong" event likely through January-March 2027.
Strengthening is expected to continue before a weakening trend begins early next year, the agency added.
It added there was roughly a 60 percent chance for a "historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950” for the October-December and November-January periods.
The CPC said, when compared to last month, "El Niño strengthened as sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0°C, extending farther westward across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean."
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How El Niño Could Impact Winter Weather, According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac said that while El Niño won’t be the only influence on winter weather, the strength of the event did leave a noticeable imprint on its seasonal outlook.
“We’re experiencing a Super El Niño, which means you can credit the strong footprint of El Niño for the 2026–2027 winter weather forecast,” Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologist Chad Merrill said in a statement.
In its previously released winter forecast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac called for a mild winter across much of the country, aside from some cold spots stretching from central New England through the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley.
It expects much of the West to see wetter conditions than usual, as well as portions of the Midwest, the South and Florida.
The publication explained that warming in the tropical Pacific changes where the ocean releases heat into the air, potentially shifting the jet stream and, in turn, the weather systems it guides. However, the publication stressed that a stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate to stronger storms but instead raises the likelihood of particular weather patterns.
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How NOAA’s Winter Forecast Compares
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the upcoming winter last month. Like the Almanac, the agency pointed to El Niño playing key role in shaping seasonal conditions.
From December 2026-February 2027, the agency said that warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the northern U.S., while wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern tier of the country and along the Eastern Seaboard.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s NWS said.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Ben Kelly and Anthony Murray.
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