...
By Shane Croucher
Senior Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel Wednesday as fresh Middle East attacks threatened oil supplies—Houthi militants have targeted Saudi Arabia—putting President Donald Trump on two competing timers before the midterms.
Affordability is already a political vulnerability for Trump's Republican Party, which enters a set of midterms having to explain why a president elected to bring down the cost of living took America into a war of choice with Iran that has increased it.
Trump says his military campaign against Iran is justified to prevent Tehran from ever developing a nuclear weapon and to bring an end to the regime's malign influence in the region, including its capacity to disrupt energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Read More on Analysis
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted August 28-31 found that 47 percent of registered voters considered the cost of living the most important factor in their midterm vote, while 71 percent of adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of the issue.
Historically, about half of a crude-price change reaches consumers at the pump within two weeks and roughly 80 percent within four weeks, according to past analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Related Story
Donald Trump’s Oil Price Promise Was Just Struck by Houthis Defying Hegseth
Drivers are already seeing a fresh rise at the pump. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.224 a gallon on Wednesday, up from $4.151 a day earlier, $4.120 a week ago and $3.193 a year ago.
At current prices, a 15-gallon fill-up costs about $15.50 more than it did a year earlier. Diesel, which can feed into businesses’ transportation costs, reached a record national average of $5.942 a gallon Wednesday.
An added political complication is that official inflation numbers that dominate the headlines can tell voters an older story than the prices displayed on the roadside.
Related Story
RNC Dallas Puts the GOP’s Trump Paradox on Full Display
The latest Consumer Price Index showed gasoline prices falling 2.9 percent in July from June, although they were still 24.6 percent higher than a year earlier. The August CPI is due September 11, meaning this week’s renewed pump-price increase will fall outside that report.
Voters could therefore feel another burst of energy inflation before it is fully visible in the government’s headline inflation data.
There is also evidence that gasoline carries unusual political weight.
A 2025 study in American Politics Research found that real gasoline prices had predictive value for presidential approval, with the researchers pointing to the direct “pocketbook” effect on households.
The finding does not mean the latest spike will necessarily hurt Trump—and his approval rating is already at historic lows—but it shows why an extended duration of high pump prices can deepen political costs to a president.
Trump, meanwhile, has promoted a new Venezuelan oil agreement as a way to increase supply and lower prices.
Related Story
The Seven-Point Gap That Could Save Ken Paxton
The White House says “material production” will begin reaching the U.S. as early as next year, with at-cost oil entering the market by the end of this year.
But the midterm election is November 3, which creates an awkward political misalignment for Trump. Oil markets can reprice a war immediately, gasoline can follow within weeks, and major new production can take considerably longer.
These are Trump's twin timers: the countdown to the midterms and how soon his policies can once again bring oil prices down, either through deals such as in Venezuela, or bringing the Hormuz standoff to a favorable conclusion.
Republicans themselves tied energy prices to geopolitical stability during Trump’s 2024 campaign, declaring in the party platform: “War breeds Inflation while geopolitical stability brings price stability.”
Still, a backlash is far from inevitable. An earlier AP-NORC poll in May found roughly two-thirds of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of Iran, even though only about one-third of Americans overall did.
The key variable here is duration. If attacks ease and oil flows recover, prices could retreat before becoming a defining campaign issue.
But if crude remains near triple digits into late September, the EIA’s historical pass-through suggests drivers could feel more of the increase in October, the worst possible timing for Trump and the GOP.
Trump’s two timers therefore run at different speeds. The market can deliver higher prices before Election Day, while some of his proposed supply relief may arrive afterward.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines