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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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The race for Ohio governor has shifted in Democrat Amy Acton’s favor, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball moving the contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign released a deeply personal attack ad featuring the former state health chief's estranged mother.
Newsweek contacted the Acton and Ramaswamy campaigns via email for comment on Thursday.
Ramaswamy’s one-minute campaign spot features Donna Arthur, Acton’s birth mother, calling her daughter a liar and disputing her account of living in a tent during a period of her childhood, and comes as Acton and Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur who sought the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, are competing to replace term-limited Republican Governor Mike DeWine on November 3. Libertarian Don Kissick is also on the ballot.
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Both campaigns are focusing heavily on taxes, affordability and the cost of living in a state that has shifted increasingly Republican in recent years. The outcome will determine who leads Ohio through the next four years and could offer clues about the state's political direction heading into the 2028 presidential cycle.
What Did the Attack Ad Say?
Its use became particularly contentious because Acton has said she was sexually abused by her stepfather as a child and removed from her mother’s custody at age 12.
Acton’s stepfather, Cledith Arthur, was indicted by a Mahoning County grand jury on a rape charge but left Ohio and died in 2004 without facing prosecution.
A 1982 court record also states that Cledith Arthur lived in a tent, supporting a central element of Acton’s description of her childhood that the advertisement challenges.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Acton, Ohio’s former health director, who rose to prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, had established a public polling advantage over Ramaswamy in a state where Democrats have won only one of the past nine gubernatorial elections.
Its change means Acton is now considered the favorite, although her victory is not assured.
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The move also has national consequences.
Democrats are now favored by the forecaster in enough states to hold 26 governorships, which would give the party a majority for the first time since Republicans captured one in the 2010 elections.
DeWine, who has endorsed Ramaswamy, also urged the candidate’s campaign to withdraw the controversial ad, calling it “deeply, deeply troubling” and saying: “It’s wrong to run this ad.”
What The Ohio Polls Show
The Silver Bulletin polling average placed Acton at 48.7 percent and Ramaswamy at 44 percent as of Wednesday, a 4.7-point Democratic advantage.
That calculation did not include a Fox News poll released Wednesday night that showed a closer contest, with Acton leading 50 percent to 48 percent.
A separate RealClearPolitics average gave Acton a 3.6-point lead, based on surveys conducted between September 22 and October 19.
Its underlying polls varied considerably, ranging from an 8-point Democratic advantage in a CNN survey to a 2-point Ramaswamy lead in a Co/efficient poll.
The strongest recent result for Acton came from an October Marist Poll.
It placed her ahead by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters and showed her leading independents 53 percent to 34 percent.
Marist interviewed 1,176 registered Ohio voters from October 15 through October 18. Its likely-voter findings carry a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
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What The Campaigns Said About The Ad
Ramaswamy confirmed his campaign’s involvement in the controversial spot, telling reporters: “It is an ad from our campaign.” His team said it would spend $4 million airing the spot online and on television.
Campaign spokeswoman Connie Luck defended the message by describing Acton as a “serial fabulist” whose statements and public record deserved greater scrutiny.
“Ohioans are struggling with rising costs and need a governor who can help them,” she told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement. “Vivek wants the election to focus on how to solve these problems.”
Acton responded with a statement from her brother, Philip Stearns, who said his sister absorbed the worst of the abuse while protecting him.
“I received a lot of abuse, but Amy always got the worst of it,” Stearns said. “She continued to receive that abuse because she knew she had to protect me.”
Acton’s campaign has now released its own ad, “Change,” seeking to shift the contest toward affordability and unity with promises to cut taxes, lower household costs and prevent data centers from increasing Ohioans’ energy bills.
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Republicans Divide Over The Attack
The commercial produced an unusual split inside the Republican Party.
Ohio Senator Jon Husted said he wouldn't have run it, while Secretary of State Frank LaRose said he “probably” wouldn't have either.
Lydia Mihalik, the state development director serving in DeWine’s administration, wrote: “I don’t have to agree with Amy Acton’s politics to believe that exploiting someone’s childhood trauma is wrong.”
Vice President JD Vance defended the campaign’s right to use the advertisement, saying whether it was appropriate was “not really my concern” and criticizing Republicans who were “whining” about it rather than concentrating on defeating Democrats.
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JD Vance ‘Disgusted’ by Republican Backlash to Vivek Ramaswamy’s Attack Ad
What Happens Next
Sabato’s Crystal Ball cautioned that Ohio polling underestimated Republican performance by about 6 points in the state’s major 2018 races. A comparable error could still allow Ramaswamy to overcome his current deficit.
The forecaster nevertheless concluded that the developing fallout from the ad “may ultimately hurt” the Republican.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Gray R. Thomas
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