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By Khaleda Rahman
National Correspondent
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The odds of British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer losing his job over the furor surrounding the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the United Kingdom’s ambassador to the United States despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein are rising, according to betting platforms and prediction markets.
The chances of Starmer stepping down as prime minister before March 1 has gone up to 23 percent on Kalshi, a major prediction market.
Meanwhile, bookmaker Star Sports is offering odds of 1/4 (80 percent) that Starmer will be replaced as the leader of the governing Labour Party this year, up from 1/3 (75 percent) on Thursday.
On Monday, a spokesperson for Starmer’s Downing Street office said the prime minister was not considering resigning and was “concentrating on the job in hand,” the BBC reported. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar on Monday called for Starmer to quit on Monday afternoon, saying there have been "too many mistakes."
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Why It Matters
Starmer is facing his biggest political crisis since becoming prime minister, stemming from his decision in 2024 to appoint Mandelson to Britain’s most important diplomatic post despite knowing he had ties to Epstein, the late convicted sex offender.
Starmer fired Mandelson in September after emails were published showing he maintained a friendship with Epstein after his 2008 conviction for sex offenses involving a minor. But newly released documents shed more light about the relationship between Mandelson and Epstein, putting new pressure on Starmer.
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned on Sunday, saying he took responsibility for advising the prime minister to appoint Mandelson, and a second senior aide resigned on Monday.
If Starmer is challenged or resigns, it will trigger an election for the Labour leadership and the winner will become prime minister.
What To Know
Star Sports is also offering odds of 1/6 (85.69 percent) that Starmer will not be the prime minister when the next general election is held in the U.K. The bookmaker is offering odds on the next Labour Party leader after Starmer, with former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner considered the favorite.
And on prediction market Polymarket, the chances of Starmer becoming the next world leader to be out of power before 2027 have climbed to 21 percent.
The odds of Starmer stepping down as prime minister before March 1 have risen to 23 percent on Kalshi, a major prediction market.
To create your Kalshi account now, just click here or use the following links to lock in $10 in bonuses once registration is complete and you have completed $100 worth of trades.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Meanwhile, a recent poll found that a majority of British adults think Starmer should quit.
The poll, conducted by Opinium for The Observer newspaper, found that 55 percent think Starmer should resign as leader of the Labour Party, while 23 percent think he should stay and 22 percent said they don’t know. The poll was conducted among 2,053 adults between February 4 and 6.
Meanwhile, political experts recently told Newsweek that Starmer’s admission that he was aware of Mandelson's friendship with Epstein, yet still appointed him as ambassador, may have struck a “fatal blow” to Starmer's authority. They also noted that even if Starmer manages to stay on as prime minister, many expect he will have to step down if crucial local elections in May go as badly as expected for the Labour Party.
What People Are Saying
William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said in a statement to Newsweek: “According to the betting markets, it’s all over for Keir Starmer. He is just a 1/4 shot now to exit Downing Street this year following yesterday's departure of chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. Further to that, the Labour leader is 1/6 not to be the prime minister at the next general election.”
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer apologized to Epstein’s victims on Thursday, saying: "I am sorry, sorry for what was done to you, sorry that so many people with power failed you. Sorry for having believed Mandelson's lies and appointed him and sorry that even now you're forced to watch this story unfold in public once again.”
He also said: "I was lied to. It had been publicly known for some time that Mandelson knew Epstein, but none of us knew the depth and the darkness of that relationship.”
Morgan McSweeney said in a statement: “The decision to appoint Peter Mandelson was wrong. He has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics itself. When asked, I advised the prime minister to make that appointment and I take full responsibility for that advice."
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said during a news conference on Monday: "My first priority and my first loyalty is to my country, Scotland, and I am not willing to sacrifice Scotland's NHS [National Health Service], our schools, our communities, our towns, cities, villages and islands to a third decade of an SNP [Scottish National Party] government. That is why the distraction needs to end, and the leadership in Downing Street has to change."
He added: "The situation in Downing Street is not good enough. There have been too many mistakes. They promised they were going to be different, but too much has happened."
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said on X on Monday: "Keir Starmer won a massive mandate 18 months ago, for five years to deliver on Labour’s manifesto that we all stood on. We should let nothing distract us from our mission to change Britain and we support the prime Minister in doing that."
What Happens Next
Starmer is due to address Labour Party lawmakers in private on Monday.
Meanwhile, Sarwar's call for Starmer to quit could set off a cascade of other senior figures urging his ouster.
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