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By Khaleda Rahman
National Correspondent
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Up to 2.4 million fewer immigrants will gain green cards by the end of President Donald Trump’s second term due to his administration's restrictive policies, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).
Newsweek has contacted the NFAP for further comment via email.
Why It Matters
The Trump administration has focused much attention of arresting and deporting those who are in the country illegally as Trump seeks to fulfill a campaign pledge to carry out the largest mass deportation effort in U.S history.
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But as part of Trump’s ongoing efforts to tighten U.S. entry standards for foreigners, the administration has also imposed new restrictions on the legal immigration system that will impact millions of people who want to come to the U.S. lawfully to live, work or study.
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What to Know
The Trump administration has implemented policies including "significantly" lower admission levels for refugees and restrictions on the ability of U.S. citizens to sponsor their closest family members.
In December, Trump signed a proclamation expanding the list of countries subjected to a full travel ban. And earlier in January, the State Department announced it would suspend the processing of immigrant visas for citizens of 75 countries following an order issued in November that tightened rules around potential immigrants who might become "public charges" in the U.S.
The NFAP noted that 1,172,910 legal immigrants received permanent residence, or green cards, in the 2023 fiscal year, meaning it would be 4,691,640 over four years.
But the NFAP said it estimates that 1,546,710 to 2,369,998, fewer legal immigrants will gain green cards during Trump’s second term, which ends in January 2029, "due to policies that include significantly lower admission levels for refugees, restrictions on the Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens due to ‘public charge’ policies and a 39-country immigration ban, actions taken against Diversity Visa recipients and other policies."
Restricting the ability of U.S. citizens to sponsor their immediate relatives family members will lead to the biggest reduction in legal immigration, according to the analysis.
Approximately 48% of green cards awarded in the 2023 fiscal year were in the Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens category, it said.
The NFAP said that it estimates "that 941,625 to 1,654,770 fewer Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens will gain green cards during the Trump administration due to restrictive policies."
By capping annual refugee admissions to 7,500, below the 125,000 ceiling set in the last year of President Joe Biden’s administration, the NFAP estimates legal immigration will be reduced by about 470,000 over the four years of Trump’s second term.
A freeze on the diversity visa program following the shooting at Brown University in December will reduce legal immigration by 55,076 to 165,228 the NFAP estimates. Although it is not clear if or when the freeze on the program will be lifted, the NFAP estimates a range of one to three years of the program being frozen.
What People Are Saying
The NFAP analysis says the most significant impact on the December 16 proclamation signed by Trump "will be on the individuals affected, U.S. citizens who want to sponsor close relatives for immigration from the 39 countries, employers that wish to hire them and U.S. universities that want to enroll these individuals as students."
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in November: "I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s Autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country, end all Federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our Country, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization."
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen how many fewer green cards are issued over the course of Trump’s second terms and how strictly new standards will be applied.
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